Nor'easter will take shape Friday evening, while Washington can expect rain swept winds



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The Washingtonians woke up Friday morning with a red sky and the saying "red sky in the morning, alert sailor" seems to ring true. The first round of autumn should come into action on Friday night.

Friday afternoon, the showers were already extensive in the area and the coverage and intensity of the rain should increase in the evening.

When the storm has left the area on Saturday afternoon, it is likely that the rain will reach about 1.5 inches. Some areas may exceed two inches. The heaviest rains are expected late Friday night, when winds could blow 20 to 30 mph.

The rain will be a polite rain, stretched over enough hours so that the floods are not a major concern. Wind speed should also remain below dangerous levels. The higher wind hazard is expected to remain east of Washington, towards the Maryland-Delaware beaches (and along the coast), where gusts ranging from 40 to 50 mph are likely.

Chronology of the storm

The bulk of the rain should fall in a period of 12 hours, between about 19 hours. Friday night and Saturday at 7 o'clock. Precipitation before and after this window should be more cloudy and intermittent. Saturday afternoon, we should dry slowly.

Until 5 pm Friday: Light rain showers form and fire. Nearly 50 degrees. Light winds.

17h until 22h Friday: The rain increases. Nearly 50 degrees. Becoming windy.

10 am Friday to 3 am Saturday: Rain, sometimes heavy. Nearly 50 degrees. Gusts of wind can reach 20 to 30 mph.

Saturday from 3h to 8h: Rain. Nearly 50 degrees. Gusts of wind can reach 20 to 30 mph.

8h to 13h Saturday: Rain showers decreasing. Nearly 50 degrees. Fresh.

1 pm to 4 pm Saturday: Persistent showers end from southwest to northeast. Nearly 55 degrees. Fresh.

Precipitation projected from computer models

Until Thursday, the models had been consistent by generally forecasting 1 to 1.75 inches of rain. The latest models on Friday morning brought the totals to 1.25 to 2.5 inches.

We think about 1.5 inches is a reasonable forecast, but the amounts will vary from region to region. Some models prefer the heavier amounts to the north and west of Washington, while others place the center of the target to the east.

Below you will find the amounts planned for the district from the different models:

  • American model: 1.9 inches
  • NAM model: 2.0 inches
  • High resolution NAM model: 2.6 inches
  • HRRR model: 1.6 inches
  • Canadian model: 2.4 inches
  • High resolution Canadian model: 1.7 inches
  • European model: 1.4 inches

If Washington receives at least an inch of rain from this storm, it will be the twentieth storm of the calendar year to produce as much, at a distance of the record of 21 established in 1878. Rainfall is also likely to push the month of April. October total, which shows a deficit of just under an inch in a territory near or even higher than normal.

With possible additional rainfall on Sunday night and Monday, October could become the seventh consecutive month of above-normal rainfall in Washington State.

On Friday, Washington received 51.64 inches of rain (and slush) this year and needs less than 10 inches in the remaining time to surpass the record of 61.33 inches set in 1889.

Photos of the red sky

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