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In appearance, the sixth week of the 2018 college football season does not seem dangerous for the title contenders.
Alabama is favored by 35 points on the Arkansas route. The state of Ohio is one of Indiana's favorites in 25 points. Georgia is a favorite of 26 Vanderbilt accommodation points. And Clemson is a 17.5-point favorite at Wake Forest.
But this is a very important weekend for some of the high school contenders for the university football playoffs, including Notre Dame and Oklahoma.
The Irish go to Blacksburg, which could be their most difficult match.
After a dominant win over Stanford, Notre Dame faces Virginia Tech.
Virginia Tech had an eventful year of ups and downs, causing FSU and Duke to be upset, but losing to Old Dominion as a 28.5 point favorite.
The last time was without quarterback Josh Jackson, who had broken his leg against Old Dominion. But quarterback Ryan Willis played well.
No matter how you look at things, Willis was fantastic on his first start for the Hokies. His total is good, since he completed 17 of 27 passes for 332 yards and three scores. He also did not hit the ball, which was impressive against Duke's strong defense on the road.
Certainly, Notre Dame plays his own football after a change of quarter, Ian Book replacing Brandon Wimbush. Although Book is not the Wimbush runner, he is athletic enough to retain some of the racing elements of the game book while opening the passing game.
Virginia Tech has not yet faced an offense of the caliber of Notre Dame. Not even close, really. According to Bill Connelly's S & P + assessments, the Old Dominion offensive ranks 87th, Duke's 62nd and Florida State 109th. Notre Dame is 37th and it's with Wimbush at the helm for three of the five games.
Both teams have strong defenses. Notre Dame is fifth, while the Hokies are 57th, largely as a result of the Old Dominion implosion (VT maintained the USR at three points and Duke at 14).
An interesting factor will be whether one or the other defenses can determine a weakness of the new QB that has never been exposed. With more movies, a defense is more likely to exploit a point of conflict.
If the Irish win, expect them to be double-digit favorites long afterwards.
The next five games of Notre Dame after this game are Pitt, Navy, North West, Florida and Syracuse.
The last game of the year at USC could be more difficult than Virginia Tech. But that will hugely depend on the amount of genuine USC freshman, the QB J.T. Daniels has improved over the past two months.
S & P + gives Notre Dame a 21% chance of finishing undefeated, which is probably what the Irish would need to qualify for the CFP. But if the Irish can win this weekend, these chances increase to 31%, according to current figures.
Meanwhile, the other serious contender with a legitimate test this weekend is Oklahoma.
The classic Red River Rivalry combines a special attack with an Oklahoma and a defense that does not seem to improve compared to previous years against a Texas with an offense that ranks 80th of the S & P + defenses and 10 .
It's a real contrast of styles.
And this is a game that Oklahoma would probably need if it were to make PCP.
The ESPN Playoff Predictor gives the Sooners a chance to score 33%. The most obvious path is to stay undefeated. But if OU could do it if he lost to Texas and ran on the board, it does not seem very likely that OU is not good enough to beat this Texas team, since the Sooners have four more games (at TCU, in Texas). Tech, Oklahoma State and West Virginia) in which they would be single-digit favorites, or even outright outsiders at one point.
I'll be interested to see how the Oklahoma defense decides to play the Texas offensive. The Longhorns were more successful in supporting throws (48th in success rate) than in creating explosive games (108th in IsoPPP).
Oklahoma will come after Texas to get the Longhorns off the schedule, betting that the lack of big games will continue?
Next week, Washington, Georgia and LSU will be at the rendezvous.
The Huskies must travel to Oregon for what will be a round trip trip, while Oregon does not have permission. And Georgia travels to LSU to face the Tigers, who themselves have a tough trip to Gainesville this weekend.
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