Paul Vigna | [email protected] | Posted on October 20, 2018 at 06:25
Since the consecutive years of the polar vortex in 2013-14 and 2014-15, the winters of Pennsylvania have been largely under control, especially the last two seasons.
Yes, there was cold weather, but nothing like those two winters, when temperatures seemed to hover below freezing for days.
The snow has fallen, although the worst storms have been waiting until March in the last two years.
The absence of El Niño weather regime is partly at the origin of this situation. Others have come to attribute to climate change and the slow rise in average temperatures.
You will find below an assortment of forecasts, from man and the "beast", for the coming winter. In April 2019, we will know who is the one who has done the best job.
NOAA via AP
Snow, but how much?
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its winter forecast on Thursday and predicts "wetter than average" conditions in the mid-Atlantic region for the months of February to February. February. He does not speculate on the amount of white precipitation.
NOAA
Coverage on accumulations
"The snow forecast is usually not predictable more than a week in advance," the agency said. "Even during a warmer than average winter, periods of cold temperatures and snowfall are still likely to occur."
For the winter of 2018-2019, about three-quarters of the United States is more likely to be warmer than average this winter, and drought is expected to persist or worsen in Intermountain West, according to estimates. forecasts.
Watch the video to see how NOAA is reducing its forecasts.
An overview
On October 5, Accuweather released its forecast for the winter of 2018-1919 for the country, and the highlight was the return of the El Niño weather.
Click on this link to see Accuweather's video summarizing his thoughts on next winter.
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific that typically occurs every few years. The last one in 2016 was related to crop damage, fire and sudden flooding in the northern hemisphere.
According to this Reuters story of May 2018, the possibility of a transition to the El Niño meteorological phenomenon was around 50% by the winter of 2018-1919 in the Northern Hemisphere, announced the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center (CPC) in its monthly forecast.
If you are really a keen on the weather, check out this 2015-2016 presentation on El Niño and what it usually means for the center of the Atlantic coastline.
A number of videos explain the weather, but my favorite is the one attached to this slide from National Geographic.
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A sweet start
According to AccuWeather, "In the first month of winter, the weather will be mild in the northeast and central Atlantic."
