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Patriots have a negative point differential before the fourth week since 2008. (AP Photo / Rick Osentoski)
Neil Greenberg
Reporter analyzing advanced sports statistics for the Fancy Stats blog
As for the East AFC, the New England Patriots dominate the rest of the field. Against divisional opponents since 2002, the Patriots have been favorites at least seven times 50 times, but they are only 24-24-2 against the gap. This record will change Sunday when they host the Miami Dolphins at Gillette Stadium.
Our projection formula determines how often one team will beat another based on their actual and projected success rates. This gives us odds of winning for each match, as well as an implicit margin of victory – useful for choosing games against the gap.
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The process of creating proprietary point spreads is done by computer, but there is a visual test element, so that all games with the highest level will not be presented each week. With this in mind, here are the best choices this week against consensus point differences from several sports books in Vegas.
Success rate of the first choice: 4-5
Miami Dolphins to the New England Patriots (-6.5)
Pick: Miami Dolphins +6.5
The Patriots opened as a 9.5-point home favorite against the Dolphins at Westgate SportsBook on Sunday afternoon before their loss to the Detroit Lions later in the evening. As of Thursday morning, the gap has narrowed to 6.5 points in favor of New England.
Most are not yet willing to concede the AFC East We are still convinced that the Patriots, but it is important to recognize that although the main players and coaches are the same, it is not the same team as in recent years.
For example, the 2018 Patriots scored below the average of 1.7 points per disc (22nd) and produced a red zone touchdown on less than half their chances in the 20-yard line (42%). , 14th). What is perhaps more disturbing is that they were forced to make three times more than 44% of their readers; only the Indianapolis Colts, the Seattle Seahawks and the Buffalo Bills have been worse this season.
This is also the first time that New England has a negative point differential before the fourth week. since 2008, a year they missed the playoffs. In addition, it was a year when he found himself 1-2 against home division opponents, a rarity for this team since Bill Belichick took over as head coach in 2000.
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Miami certainly has its flaws, but our system is not the only one to be optimistic this season.
Football Outsiders ranks them fifth among the best teams in the NFL (the Patriots are in 8th place) after taking into account pre-season and second-team projections by considering only opponent-adjusted effectiveness. . . The simple ranking system of Pro Football Reference, an estimate per match adjusted to the strength of the calendar, implies that the Dolphins (plus 7.6 SRS) are favorites of 26 points on the Patriots (minus 18.3 SRS) on a neutral ground.
And if you disregard Miami's 3-0 record for "only" defeating the Tennessee Titans, the New York Jets and the Oakland Raiders, the 9th easiest program by Football Outsiders , Rams, who beat the second easiest program in 2018. Yet the Rams are Super Bowl LII favorites and dolphins are unlikely to beat the patriots.
Cleveland Browns at Oakland Raiders (-2.5)
Pick: Cleveland Browns +2.5
Myles Garrett of Cleveland is the best arsenal in the league and teammate Larry Ogunjobi ranks 18th out of 63 skilled linemen according to Pro Football Focus rules. The latter two, along with defensive end Chris Smith, give the Browns a great run that can make life very difficult for quarterback Raiders Derek Carr.
Carr, like most quarterbacks, is struggling to cope with the pressure. Its completion rate dropped 85-46% under pressure this year and its success rate dropped further from 105.7 to 32.1, the difference between a Pro Bowl smuggler and something like worse than an incomplete rating (odds 39.6). And it is no coincidence that the samples are small: Carr has also seen its rate increase from 100.5 to 40.8 under the pressure of last year.
Cincinnati Bengals in Atlanta Falcons (-5.5)
Choice: Cincinnati Bengals +5.5
Do not put all the blame for the Cincinnati defeat last week on the shoulders of quarterback Andy Dalton. Yes, he threw four interceptions, but Pro Football Focus ranked Dalton as the second-best passer of the week behind Rams Jared Goff. Why? In their opinion, Dalton's intercepted passes were not up to the turnover. They also give Dalton (# 5 overall) a better result than Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan (# 18).
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In addition, the Bengals seem to have the best defense. Football Outsiders lists the Falcons in the 30th rank for the Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, taking into account pre-season expectations, a measure of a team's efficiency after comparing its success on each game to an average depending on the situation and the opponent. Check in at number 15. Atlanta has also allocated 21 points more than expected based on the ground position, distance and distance of each piece. Cincinnati, on the other hand, allowed six more points than expected.
***
The three games above represent my best games of the week because my analysis shows that the differences in points are the most divergent compared to what I think will happen once the teams have taken orders. One of the reasons the house wins so often is that punters try to play too many games when the odds are not in their favor. This makes it difficult to try to choose each game of the NFL. The odds should be in my favor in the three games above, which is why I think they are worth it. Below is our graph predicting the betting advantage for each game.
Note: I would avoid betting on the 49ers-Chargers match because of defeat of quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo in San Francisco.
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