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Ohio State Buckeyes (-3.5) at Michigan State Spartans
Sat. 11/9, 12:00 pm ET
Three things to know before betting on the Ohio State-Michigan State:
1. There's been some bad energy around the Ohio State football program, and it has finally started to manifest on the field. A 16-point win over Minnesota last week was closer than it seemed, a 29-point loss at Purdue the week after that was an obvious disaster and the Buckeyes nearly lost to 1-7 Nebraska last week while coming off a bye. Urban Meyer's after-cover in three of its first four contests.
Nonetheless, OSU is 8-1 on the year and continues to be one of the nation's best and most consistent offenses. Ohio State still has an outside chance at a college football playoff berth if it can reverse race and run the table. Such a run would need to start this week at Michigan State. The 6-3 Spartans have lost to Arizona State, Northwestern and Michigan, but they have won two straight over Purdue and Maryland. However, Michigan State faces both teams at advantageous times. Purdue was coming off the road to Ohio State and was a letdown, and Maryland was still reeling from a week of turmoil over the in-and-out tenure of coach DJ Durkin.
Ohio State and Michigan State have put each of the past four novembers, a stretch in which the Buckeyes have gone 3-1 straight up and 2-2 against the spread. While there is no one around the world, the team has struggled against the spread of straight-line games. Ohio State now has-are 36-10 ATS (78.3%) .
2. Ohio State Quarterback Dwayne Haskins has been overshadowed this season, but nothing can be taken away from the incredible season he's having. He set the OSU single-season record for completions against Nebraska and can break the single-season yardage mark with 278 against MSU. Haskins is first in the country in touchdown passes (32), fifth in passing rating (170.6), sixth in completion percentage (69.7) and 11th in yards per attempt (8.8). It also has a deep group of speedy wideouts that can be converted into long-range defense. Ohio State's running attack is less potent (4.52 yards per carry, eighth in Big Ten), but still reliable. On the whole, the Buckeyes offense is 12th in the country in yards per play (6.75).
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Michigan State's defense goal is elite, too, ranking 25th in the nation in yards per play (4.84). The Spartans' run defense is very stiff, allowing an FBS-low 71.67 rushing yards per game on a tiny 2.53 yards per carry. But given that the Buckeyes run on only 47.7% of their plays (104th in FBS), they will not engage the Spartans' run D that often. And while the MSU pass defense is solid, Haskins will be a challenge unlike anything Spartans have faced. OSU is 14th in the nation in yards per pass (8.9). Only one Michigan State (Purdue) is in the top 25 in this category.
3. To say Ohio State's defense has struggled in its last two games would be an understatement. The Buckeyes surrendered a combined 80 points to Purdue and Nebraska. The games are better, the better. Since it still ranks 45th in the nation in scoring defense (23.8 points allowed per game), some of these unfortunate performances have been outliers.
Fortunately for the Buckeyes, Michigan. The Spartans have not scored 30 points in their game since September, and their per-play average of 4.55 yards is ahead of only Northwestern and Rutgers in the conference. Spartan quarterback Brian Lewerke has a pass rating of 113.9, 114th in the country. And running back LJ Scott, one of the most promising underclassmen running backs, has averaged 3.3 yards per carry in the four games he's been healthy enough to play.
Even in Ohio State's weaker performance, no defense has shut down Haskins this season. There's little reason to believe MSU will do so here.
Pick: Ohio State -3.5
Confidence Level: High (we have a scale of Low / Moderate / High / Very High / Extremely High)
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