Oil company close to a four-year high while sanctions against Washington are imminent

SINGAPORE (Reuters) – Oil markets were firm on Tuesday, Brent crude prices are now at record four-year lows, as markets adjust to the prospect of tightening. of the offer when US sanctions against Iran come into force next month.

The international benchmark on Brent crude oil futures, LCOc1, was $ 85.02 per barrel at 0255 GMT, up 4 cents from their last close, and close to the top of 85 , $ 45 reached in the previous session, its highest level since November 2014.

Brent rose about 20% from the last low recorded in August.

The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) CLC1 futures price rose 24 cents, or 0.3%, to $ 75.54 per barrel.

(For a chart on "Iranian oil exports are down," click on tmsnrt.rs/2zKERTD)

WTI is up about 17% since mid-August.

A trilateral pact between the United States, Mexico and Canada has saved NAFTA, a last-minute deal aimed at saving a free trade zone of $ 1.2 trillion a year, on the point to collapse.

More fundamentally, the oil markets have been pushed up by the impending sanctions imposed by the United States against the Iranian oil industry, which, at its last summit reached this year, provided nearly 3% of global oil consumption. nearly 100 million barrels.

Trade data published by Refinitiv Eikon showed that Iran's maritime exports in September were only 1.9 million barrels a day, the lowest level since mid-2016.

"Oil prices continue to climb, supported by the embargo on Iran and related supply problems," said Norbert Ruecker, head of commodity research at the bank Swiss Julius Baer.

"The supply situation seems indeed fragile, because any additional deficit such as a deterioration of the situation in Venezuela would tighten oil reserves."

In HSBC's global economic forecast, HSBC said in the fourth quarter that "its analysts believe that there is now a growing risk that (raw) crude can reach $ 100 a barrel."

Washington's sanctions are expected to begin on Nov. 4, and analysts believe that excess production capacity may not be sufficient in the short term to meet demand, which could require significant storage capacity losses.

"The camp for believers who have reached the $ 100 mark continues to expand, with concerns over excess production capacity continuing to increase," said Brian Kessens, general manager of the service company. Investment Tortoise.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), of which Iran is a member, has fought to replace declining Iranian exports, according to a Reuters poll released Monday.

With soaring crude prices and many currencies falling in emerging markets, including the Indian rupee and the Indonesian rupiah, analysts warn that economic growth could erode.

"US fiscal tightening, rising oil prices and ongoing trade tensions are weighing heavily on growth prospects," HSBC said.