Oil prepares for a weekly surge while the Saudis fail to appease fears of supply

Oil surged this week by two months, Saudi Arabia's insurance of an increase in production not allowing to ease fears that Canada's disturbances to Libya and Iran do not weigh on the world markets. , up for a fourth quarter, as US stocks plummet. The US Department of Energy said Thursday that Iranian crude buyers could be allowed to reduce their purchases gradually, thus softening an earlier goal of complete closure. Yet, the gesture has failed to reduce prices, which remain near the highest in three years despite Saudi promises to boost production.

Crude oil has rebounded by more than 12% in the last two weeks. third supplier, after the release of President Donald Trump of a nuclear agreement with the Islamic Republic. Despite Saudi promises of additional supply, worries intensify that reduced Iranian production will continue to weigh on a market plagued by declining US inventories, oil sands breakdowns in Canada, and troubles in Libya. Jens Naervig Pedersen, senior analyst at Danske Bank A / S in Copenhagen, said the risks for the world oil supply are piling up. "The potential loss of supplies from Libya and Iran has been a cause of nervousness."

West Texas Intermediate crude for the month of August remained unchanged at $ 73.45 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 10:47 am in London. Brent's contract for the month of August, which expires on Friday, has earned 75 cents to $ 78.60 on the London-based ICE Futures Europe stock exchange. (19659002) The two most important references in the world are divergent, because Saudi Arabia's promise to fill the supply gap was weighing on the European market, while the decline in stocks in the United States supported futures on new markets. The gap between Brent and WTI is set at its lowest since March 2009. The spread has plummeted since it's set to 11.43 dollars June 7, the widest since February 2015.

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A market structure known as "backwardation", where short-term prices exchange at a price higher than subsequent contracts, persisted this month. this. WTI for the August settlement was about $ 1.60 higher than the September contract, indicating a supply shortage after Syncrude Canada Ltd. cut volumes to customers after an unexpected outage in Alberta last week. Meanwhile, Brent for short-term delivery was only 26 cents higher than subsequent shipments, a much smaller premium than in the US market.

"The OPEC agreement offers some comfort, especially if Saudi Arabia manages to provide record production." The risk is that there will not be enough oil to circulating. "

In the United States, the Energy Information Administration said that domestic stocks fell 9.89 million barrels last week, more than the 3 million barrel drop Center stocks Cushing, Oklahoma, also fell by 2.7 million barrels, while exports hit the 3 million mark for the first time, despite fears of a bottleneck. strangulation in the Permian region

Libya, forces loyal to Khalifa Haftar, a commander in the east of the politically divided nation, have handed over control of the ports with an export capacity combined 800,000 barrels a day at a self-declared National Oil Corp. the orian city The recent clashes have cost the country about 450,000 barrels of oil a day, depriving the oil market more than a few days after OPEC reached an agreement with its allies to increase production.

Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih on Thursday met with State Secretary for Foreign Affairs Mike Pompeo at the State Department, where they discussed the issue. .

Futures are up 0.8% to 494.8 yuan at the Shanghai International Energy Exchange, for a third monthly increase since derivatives began on March 26th.

– With the help of Tsuyoshi Inajima