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Back in August, NFL teams were able to win the Super Bowl. Now that we're about halfway through the 2018 season, let's re-do that list based on what we now know. We've whittled the list down to five teams, including two squads that did not make our initial list …
1. Los Angeles Rams
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This Rams team is built perfectly for 2018. The offense can basically do it, and the defense, while not very effective. In this way, these topics are similar to the 2009 Saints' team which is a lot of points and a lot of turnovers. Ultimately, the Rams' postseason chances will hinge on Jared Goff. When last year's team struggled offensively to get it on Goff, who'd miss open throws. But he has not had any problems in 2018, and he has made it so easy that "System QB" has a difficult time in big spots. If that trend continues, Los Angeles has to be considered the heavy favorite to lift the Lombardi Trophy in Atlanta.
2. New England Patriots
The Patriots Defense has not been better than it was a season ago Football Outsiders method for measuring efficiency) in 2017. The additions of Josh Gordon and Sony Michel, along with Julian Edelman returning from an ACL injury, has raised the ceiling on the unit considerably. As long as Tom Brady is scoring points and Bill Belichick is drawing up defensive game plans, the Patriots are a threat to win the Super Bowl. We have learned that lesson last year when Brady and Belichick played a bad game.
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3. Kansas City Chiefs
Are you sensing a theme here? In 2018, it is basically impossible to play a constant high level, which is why the Chiefs' defensive is not all that concerning. Everyone seems to be waiting for this Kansas City offense to regress, which has happened in the past, but the team is just too busy to expect that to happen. Even when Patrick Mahomes has not been at his best, the Chiefs have put up nearly 40 points so it can not matter if the second-year quarterback falls back to earth after this record-breaking start to the season. And if Sunday night's game is any indication, Kansas City may be getting better on the defensive side of the ball. If the defense can play at a mediocre level, the Chiefs are going to make a deep run in January.
4. Baltimore Ravens
We just said it's really impossible to play defense in 2018, but the Ravens might be the exception to that rule. The Saints came into the week with the league's best offense, but needed to scratch and go for it. And that was with the Baltimore not only playing 11-sack performance in Tennessee. More importantly, outside of one bad half in Cincinnati and the game in Cleveland, the Ravens passing game has been sneaky good thus far, rankings in passing efficiency, per Football Outsiders. Baltimore is the only team that ranks in the top-10 in both passing DVOA and passing defense DVOA.
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5. New Orleans Saints
The NFL's best offense is starting to get support for more than just 23 points only once since January 3. The Saints seem to be following the script the defense took off from there. It's unlikely it has been done, but it has not been done. Drew Brees is playing at an MVP level, Alvin Kamara is impossible to tackle, Michael Thomas is one of the two or three hardest covers in the league and the New Orleans offensive line might be the NFL's best.
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Los Angeles Chargers
There's really no reason to leave the Chargers out of the list of Super Bowl contenders other than how hard it is to trust them. But knowing how to close out games is a big factor in the postseason.
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings offensive line is an issue. Yes, Kirk Cousins has managed to survive, but there is no guarantee that this will be the case.
Philadelphia Eagles
Last year's Super Bowl run was powered by the Eagles' run game, which has not been nearly as effective in 2018. The team does not have a feature back after Jay Ajayi's injury, so there's no reason to expect that to change. The secondary problems do not seem to be going away, either.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers have played more football over the last few weeks, but it was still hard to trust that it was always inconsistent throughout the Mike Tomlin era. The locker room turmoil surrounding the Le'Veon Bell location is not helping.
So if you're keeping track of home, here's how this list has changed since August:
- The Saints went from Just Missed to Contender.
- The Ravens and Chiefs jumped from the list of Contenders.
- The Eagles, Chargers, Vikings and Steelers went from Contenders to Just Missed.
- The Falcons went from Contender to not listed.
- The Packers and Jaguars Dropped from Just Missed to Not Listed.
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