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Oil producers led by Saudi Arabia and Russia said Sunday they had seen no increase in production, despite pressure from President Trump to pump more oil and maintain prices.
In Algiers, officials from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied governments, including Russia, said that after increasing production in recent months, customers now have enough stocks. "Since June, Saudi Arabia has responded to demand for every barrel that has been demanded," Saudi oil minister Khalid al-Falih said at a press conference after the meeting.
The Saudis and their allies seem to be trying to line up between accommodating Mr. Trump and not putting as much oil on the market as prices are collapsing – as they did in 2014, damaging their dependent economies petrol. "They are trying to appease Trump while preventing OPEC's internal division from exploding in the open," said Antoine Halff, founding partner of Kayrros, a research firm based in Paris.
With oil prices recently hovering around $ 80 a barrel for Brent crude oil, Trump used Twitter and other ways to support OPEC to increase his oil reserves. His messages were mainly addressed to Saudi Arabia, the largest producer of OPEC. Last week, Mr. Trump renewed his pressure. "We are protecting the countries of the Middle East, they would not be safe for long without us, and yet they continue to push for ever higher oil prices!", He wrote on Twitter on Thursday. . "The monopoly of OPEC must bring down prices now!"
Analysts say Trump wants to try to stop rising gas prices in the United States, which could hurt Republican candidates in the upcoming mid-term elections. "Sitting presidents in an election year have a proverbial fear of high oil prices," Halff said.
The agreement reached by OPEC and Russia in late 2016 to restrict oil production has contributed to a nearly 20% rise in Brent prices this year. Trump's decision this year to reinstate sanctions against Iran has also contributed to price increases, analysts said.
Traders calculate that exports from Iran, a major producer, may dry up in the coming months. The full sanctions are not enforced until November, but analysts believe that Iranian sales are already down while buyers in Europe and Asia reduce their orders because they fear being penalized by Washington.
In the face of pressure from Mr. Trump, the Saudis and their allies like Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates have increased production since May, but not a million barrels a day, as Mr. Falih said at the last OPEC meeting in June. In In a statement released Sunday, the OPEC group urged countries that could produce more oil "to work with customers to meet their demand in the remaining months of 2018."
Analysts say that the total impact of sanctions on Iranian exports is unknown, the Saudis and other OPEC producers are trying to avoid unnecessary tensions with Iran, another member of OPEC. Iranians are irritated by the prospect that the Saudis and other OPEC members would gain market share at their expense.
"If the United States, for reasons of argument, were successful in reducing Iranian shipments to zero, it would be extremely difficult," said Neil Atkinson, senior analyst at the International Atomic Energy Agency. energy, based in Paris.
Although markets can be properly stocked now, they could be tested in the coming months, analysts said. Iran is not the only concern. Venezuela's production in difficulty continues to decline and the fighting in Libya raises doubts about the country's ability to maintain its current high levels.
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