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Welcome to The Tip Sheet, a daily political analysis of the 2018 elections, based on interviews with Republican and Democrat leaders, pollsters, strategists and voters.
Oprah in the countryside
MARIETTA, Georgia. – The singing began long before the arrival of Oprah Winfrey Thursday: "And you get a vote! And you get a vote! And you get a vote! "
Ms. Winfrey ended up joining the party, her origins in her past as a talk show host – but only after blaming people who could deliberately forsake the franchise and a moving reminiscence of racist past of his native South.
"I am here today because of the men and women lynched, humiliated, discriminated against, repressed, repressed and oppressed for the right to equality in the polls," said Ms. Winfrey told a auditorium in the suburbs of Atlanta. "Their blood has infiltrated my DNA and I refuse to leave their sacrifices in vain."
Ms. Winfrey only made sporadic appearances and political statements, but she went to Georgia on behalf of Stacey Abrams, Democratic candidate for governorship. She has emerged as an aggressive champion of Mrs. Abrams and her policies, but has focused her most passionate remarks on the right to vote – a message that could resonate among her ever-dedicated fans across the country.
"Anyone here who has an ancestor who does not have the right to vote and who chooses not to vote – wherever you are in this state or country, you are dishonouring your family," said Ms. Winfrey, who, like Mrs. Abrams, is a black woman born in Mississippi. "You do not respect and disregard their heritage, their suffering and their dreams when you do not vote."
Indeed, Ms. Winfrey's two appearances in the Atlanta area were designed to help Ms. Abrams gain support – and enthusiasm – from voters if she wants to win on Tuesday: suburban white women and black women. Together, Ms. Winfrey and Ms. Abrams drew hundreds on Thursday, as Abrams' Republican rival Brian Kemp clashed with state vice president Mike Pence.
Ms. Abrams and Mr. Kemp both hope to avoid a runoff, but polls show that the two are indeed linked. A libertarian candidate is also in the running.
Red flags for G.O.P. in the House
We are entering the homestretch, and our poll just completed in New Jersey Representative District, Leonard Lance, is a disturbing news for him – and for other Republicans in high-income districts .
Lance, who is in his fifth term, wins only 39% of the vote against Tom Malinowski, the Democratic challenger. This is a remarkably low figure for a holder since the end of the campaign.
And it's not hard to see why Mr. Lance is struggling: a majority of the district disapproves of President Trump and a majority also prefers the Democrats to take control of Congress. It's a familiar, though embarrassing, look for suburban Republicans all over the country.
• There were other red flags for House Republicans of lesser known races. The party has invested millions of dollars in a few months in some of the toughest races in the most competitive districts. But what worries G.O.P. The strategists, and the enchanting democrats, are the races that have not received so much money and attention. And two polls, one public and one private, were published this week in two such districts.
A Republican group received a poll from Illinois stating that Rep. Randy Hultgren, the incumbent, was linked to his Democratic opponent, Lauren Underwood, in a Chicago urban district that Mr. Trump had won by 4 points in 2016.
Even more alarming for Republicans, a survey commissioned by an affiliate member of Pennsylvania ABC revealed that Rep. Mike Kelly was closely following the opposition of his Democratic opponent, Ron DiNicola, to an extremely unfavorable seat in the Erie region. .
Both incumbents can survive, but this kind of numbers at the end of the campaign is the political equivalent of flashing red hazard lights for the G.O.P.
• At the beginning of this election, few people in both parties thought that Iowa's representative Steve King was in political danger. But as King continues to echo the themes of white nationalism and support extremist personalities abroad, he is attracting the kind of unwanted attention that could create difficulties for his re-election.
Trump pointing at mid-point
President Trump is anticipating a possible mid-term loss by sending a senseless message to other Republicans: it was not me.
One day after Paul Ryan, the president of the House of Lucky Duck Dukes, questioned the constitutionality of Mr. Trump's draft executive order banning birthright citizenship, the President did what he did. he often does when he feels challenged. He intensified hostilities. By many
"Paul Ryan should focus on maintaining the majority rather than giving his opinions on Birthright Citizenship, something he knows nothing about!" Mr. Trump tweeted. He suggested that a "new" Republican majority – after Mr. Ryan left – would solve the immigration problems.
Mr. Trump hardly likes to erase the numbers of the two parties. But the main interest of Mr. Trump's tweet was not complicated: he is already pointing his Republican compatriots on their potential losses in the House next week.
Similar outbreaks were common in 2016, when the presidential election seemed lost, perhaps betraying Trump's most important political creed: responsibility stops … somewhere out there, far away.
Crowley: Is it or not?
During our last visit to Representative Joseph Crowley of New York, he had supported Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the new political dancer who dethroned him at the Democratic primary in June. He pledged to do everything possible to overthrow the House.
But Mr. Crowley remains on the ballot for two third-party lines, including the Working Families Party, and could still affect Ms. Ocasio-Cortez's race on polling day.
A new flyer circulates online urging voters to support Mr Crowley, calling him "the best qualified candidate" and explaining that, due to low participation in primary school, he "missed a bit". The source of the pamphlet is not known, but Mr. Crowley's office has disavowed any link. Ms. Ocasio-Cortez's campaign also says she does not suspect his hand.
Similar solicitations took place: in July, former Senator Joe Lieberman wrote a letter of opinion in the Wall Street Journal in which he was urging voters to support Mr. Crowley in the general election; Ruben Diaz Sr., a member of the New York City Council representing the South Bronx, did the same thing in the Bronx Chronicle in September.
On Wednesday, Mr. Crowley responded to the mysterious flyer. "Do not run, do not campaign" he posted on Twitter. "Stop campaign operations months ago. Do not circle.
He added, "Whoever: stop it. The focus should be on the election of Democrats to Republican seats. I passed, everyone should do it. "
Despite all the layoffs about a fictional campaign for his seat in the House, Mr. Crowley obviously did not give up a future in politics. "Joe for NY" is the name of his New state campaign committee, which organized a fundraiser Monday in Manhattan.
Lap of luck for tester
Senator Jon Tester of Montana won two elections in the Senate without getting 50% of the vote. One of the main reasons: a libertarian on the ballot undoubtedly hurt the Republican more than Mr. Tester, a Democrat. In both cases, Mr. Tester's margin of victory was lower than the total votes of the third party candidate.
But Wednesday, Mr. Tester had to face a complication: this year's libertarian candidate Rick Breckenridge has approved Matt Rosendale, the Republican candidate and state auditor. The effects of this situation are not entirely clear: early voting is underway and Mr Breckenridge is still voting.
But do not get me wrong: this is good news for Mr. Rosendale, whose campaign – once considered a serious fatal blow – piqued Republican interest at the highest level in recent weeks in a state that Mr. Trump took away 20 points.
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