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"Oumuamua has disappeared from the internal solar system for a long time, but the mystery surrounding the interstellar intruder has been revived, thanks to a research paper written by two Harvard astronomers.
The paper, suggesting that the cigar-shaped object could have been a veil of extraterrestrial light, sparked headlines as well as skepticism from colleagues claiming that astronomers were jumping to conclusions.
Among the skeptics, Doug Vakoch, who runs METI, a San Francisco-based organization dedicated to studying contacts with aliens. (The acronym stands for "Extraterrestrial Messaging Intelligence.")
<p class = "canvas-atom-canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "" I would like to think that 'Oumuamua is an extraterrestrial spacecraft that swept the Earth, propelled by a flood of photons striking its solar sail. But we must be careful not to mention an explanation that matches the data collected at a given moment, when we do not have the opportunity to make follow-up observations, "Vakoch told me in an e-mail" Data-reactid = " 25 ">" I'd love to think that "Oumuamua is an extraterrestrial spacecraft that swept the Earth, propelled by a flood of photons striking its solar sail. But we must be careful not to mention an explanation that matches the data collected at a given moment, when we have no opportunity to make follow-up observations, "Vakoch told me in an email.
The claims of Shmuel Bialy and Avi Loeb of the Harvard-Smithsonian Astrophysical Center are based on an analysis of Oumuamua's orbital trajectory, which brought it back into the interstellar space, around the sun, and toward the back end of 2017.
The researchers discovered that the object was subject to additional acceleration that could not be explained by gravitational influences.
If 'Oumuaumua (which received the Hawaiian name meaning' a far-away messenger coming first ') was a comet, the extra thrust could have been caused by the rocket-rocking effect. And this is precisely what scientists have assumed this summer, based on an analysis published in the journal Nature.
However, Bialy and Loeb stated, "Oumuamua showed no outward signs of outgassing when under observation. Instead, they wonder if the acceleration could have been caused by the pressure of solar radiation on the object. Their calculations showed that such could be the case, but only if the object was a large sheet of material less than one millimeter thick.
"One of the possibilities is that 'Oumuamua is a veil of light floating in interstellar space [piece of] debris of advanced technological equipment, "write the authors. Such a leaf could have survived the journey of another star system and would explain the unusual dimensions of the object, they say.
<p class = "canvas-atom-text-canvas Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "" Otherwise, a more exotic scenario is that & # 39; Oumuamua can be a fully operational probe sent intentionally they add. "data-reactid =" 31 ">" Otherwise, a more exotic scenario is that "Oumuamua can be a fully operational probe sent intentionally near the Earth by an extraterrestrial civilization, "they add.
Talk about clickbait … As you can imagine, some publications have had a busy day with the provisional claims of astronomers. "A mysterious interstellar object Oumuamua" SENT BY ALIENS "in the study of the galaxy – Harvard," reads in a title.
It is natural for Loeb to think of Light's extraterrestrial sails as he chairs the $ 100 million Breakthrough Starshot Project Advisory Committee. Starshot wants to send fleets of nanosondes powered by a bright sail beyond the Alpha Centauri star system (and all existing planets) over the next two decades. The research paper even refers to Starshot in his analysis of the extraterrestrial LightSight hypothesis.
But if you follow the words of the late Carl Sagan that extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, then it can be proven that this assumption is a lost cause. Even Bialy and Loeb recognize that Oumuamua is now too distant to be observed, whether with existing telescopes or space probes. Instead, they suggest watching other strange balls like 'Oumuamua.
"Surveys in the deepest areas of the type expected with the large synoptic survey telescope will be particularly effective in finding new members of the Oumuamua object population," they write. "An investigation of the sails of light as technosignatures in the solar system is justified, whether or not it is" Oumuamua "."
<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Vakoch agreed."Oumuamua is a modern Wow! Signal – something so monstrous that it might come from an advanced civilization, but so elusive that we'll never know, "he told me. "SETI is an inherently conservative science, and 'Oumuamua simply does not meet the strict requirements for a confirmed detection of extraterrestrial technology. "" data-reactid = "38"> Vakoch agrees. "Oumuamua is a modern Wow! Signal – something so monstrous that it might come from an advanced civilization, but so elusive that we'll never know, "he told me. "SETI is an inherently conservative science, and 'Oumuamua simply does not meet the strict requirements for a confirmed detection of extraterrestrial technology. "
At least that caught Elon Musk's attention. Here is a summary of tweets about the mystery of Oumuamua:
So, if you see a headline saying that "scientists claim …" and that it is an article and that it is an extremely heavy claim, please keep it in mind. Mind that the only thing you can conclude is that the article's authors have (probably) not seen reason the idea had to be 100% wrong.
– Katie Mack (@AstroKatie) November 6, 2018
I realize that it is attractive to believe that the extraterrestrials of the solar sail will save us all, but unfortunately our current situation is that we really have to get out and #vote.
– Katie Mack (@AstroKatie) November 6, 2018
There have been questions about the difference between the outgoing trajectory observed by Oumuamua and its expected trajectory (see below). This is probably due to outgassing, even though the particles were too big to be detected. Confirmed? No, but still more likely than ALIENS https://t.co/qzzEosT56x
– Jason Major (@JPMajor) November 6, 2018
My publicist has asked me for a quote on the history of Oumuamua. It's here:
"No, Oumuamua is not an extraterrestrial spaceship, and the authors of the document insult an honest scientific inquiry, even going as far as to suggest it."
Do not hesitate to use it, @fcain, @tariqjmalik!
– Paul M. Sutter (@PaulMattSutter) November 6, 2018
If "it's never aliens" is the thing that is remembered most in my career … so much the better.
– Miriam Kramer (@mirikramer) November 6, 2018
In a small detail, for those who asked me: the paper Shmeul and Avi proposes that a sail of extraterrestrial light is pretty much the only explanation they can find for & # 39; ; Oumuamua. But it depends on the assumptions:
– Jonathan McDowell (@ planet4589) November 6, 2018
(A) modeling of observations indicates an orbit with non-gravitational acceleration (seems secure, but maybe there is something odd with the observations that reject us …)
– Jonathan McDowell (@ planet4589) November 6, 2018
(B) Rafikov's document quoted by Shmeul and Avi looks at the most obvious explanation of the non-grav, the boiling gas of the asteroid acting like a rocket and pushing it – the "degassing". Rafikov claims to exclude this, given the reasonably reasonable assumptions (but not absolutely certain?)
– Jonathan McDowell (@ planet4589) November 6, 2018
(C) The second most common type of non-gravitational acceleration for objects in orbit is the radiation pressure acting on large, flat, sail-like objects. We do not know of any natural object of the right size that would have such a high A / m ratio. (That does not mean that there is not one)
– Jonathan McDowell (@ planet4589) November 6, 2018
(D) If it is not gravity, outgassing or slight pressure, they can not think of any other force that could cause acceleration. (That's not to say that there is not one that we have not thought of).
– Jonathan McDowell (@ planet4589) November 6, 2018
So, all that is A, B, C, D means "Oumuamua is still a bit mysterious. But our earlier Bayesian probability of being extraterrestrials is quite low (zero if you're @mirikramer). The probability that one of the A, B, C, D is false is small, but not so low. It is (much) more likely that they are not extraterrestrials.
– Jonathan McDowell (@ planet4589) November 6, 2018
It should be noted, however, about the document: Avi is the scientific lead for the Starshot project and is trying to figure out exactly how to send such a sailboat to Alpha Cen. It is therefore reasonable for him to think of other species that have already done so and what it would look like.
– Jonathan McDowell (@ planet4589) November 6, 2018
The way to read this document is: "Hey, if you're a fan of light veils, note that" Oumuamua looks like a headlight. " Which is very very very very different from "it's probably a veil of light".
– Jonathan McDowell (@ planet4589) November 6, 2018
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