Oxford researchers think we are alone in the universe – here's why

This is a puzzle asked by everyone, from SETI lovers to the couple of fans who loved the movie Suicide Squad : Are we all alone in the world? universe? While science still has to give us an answer on the second part of this riddle, a new article by philosophers at the Oxford University in the UK asks about the possibility of a "science fiction". other extraterrestrial civilizations – and, unfortunately, they do not think that it is too good for ET

Their research paper explores the so-called Fermi paradox, aka the answer to the question "where are the others? " Discussions around this topic often involve the Drake equation, a probabilistic estimate of the number of active and communicative extraterrestrial civilizations in our galaxy, based on seven variables. The possible results are a raging argument for decades, leading some researchers to conclude that there is a 53 to 99.6% chance that we are alone in the galaxy, and only 39 to 85% of chances that we are alone in the universe.

"Our article looks at the hypothesis of a" reasonable probability, "said Dr. Anders Sandberg, one of three authors, at Digital Trends." Normally, we're talking from one to one million odds and more, but of course, a probability can be arbitrarily low. People tend to be skewed when they insert numbers into Drake's equation to make a rough estimate of the number of extraterrestrial civilizations.

"We emphasize that in addition to estimating numbers, one must really estimate how much they are: If you multiply them together without considering the fact that some of them might have very different values, the result becomes misleading.We have demonstrated that if one or the other exceeded the rough estimates and used their range as a rough estimate of our uncertainty, or was trying to sketch out what science currently knows and felt how uncertain it is, the paradox goes away. "

suggests that even if you are a truly optimistic researcher who thinks that there will probably be many extraterrestrial civilizations, an honest estimate of uncertainty "will force you to admit that there is a great chance that we are alone."

However, Sandberg does not think that means we should stop looking. "All the contra ire, "he said. "We should recognize that there is a non-trivial chance that all of this is for nothing, but given the importance of knowing if we are alone – among other things, it tells us a little about our own chances of survival – we should not stop.In fact, the search for extraterrestrial intelligence brings us important knowledge and ideas about life, intelligence and technology. "

Check out the article of the researchers to see if their argument convinces you.