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ISLAMABAD: Concerned about Pakistan's international isolation and its failing economy, the country's powerful army has discreetly addressed its Indian rival to resume peace talks, but the response has been lukewarm, according to Western diplomats and a top Pakistani leader.
The sensitization campaign, launched by General Qamar Javed Bajwa, commander of the army, began several months before the national elections in Pakistan. Pakistan proposed to resume talks with India over their border dispute in the Kashmir region, which stagnated in 2015 as violence intensified.
One of Pakistan's main objectives in terms of contacts with India is to open up trade barriers between countries, which would give Pakistan better access to regional markets. Any possible peace negotiations in Kashmir will likely lead to an increase in bilateral trade as a measure of confidence.
The Pakistani army is increasingly considering the country's battered economy as a threat to security, as it worsens the country's insurgencies. Pakistan is expected to ask the International Monetary Fund $ 9 billion in the coming weeks, after receiving several billion dollars in loans from China earlier this year to pay its bills.
"We want to go forward and we are doing our best to have good ties with all our neighbors, including India," said Information Minister Fawad Chaudhry. "As General Bajwa said, regions prosper, countries do not. India can not prosper by weakening Pakistan. "
Bajwa linked the Pakistani economy to the security of the region in a speech made in October, and the idea that the two are inseparable has since become known as the Bajwa Doctrine. The army chief is also considered more moderate than his predecessors on India, which has been Pakistan's fierce rival since the bloody partition of independence in 1947.
The Pakistani general and his Indian counterpart, General Bipin Rawat, served together on a United States peacekeeping mission in the Congo about ten years ago and got along well, diplomats said. Earlier this year, Bajwa said the only way to resolve the conflict between the two countries was dialogue, a rare statement from the military.
Diplomats say Bajwa tried to join Rawat to start talks. But the effort was hampered by what a diplomat called a "system mismatch".
Diplomats in New Delhi say that the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi is concerned about the elections expected early next year and he does not want negotiations before, fearing that negotiations will collapse.
"Until the Indian elections, there can be no immediate improvement in bilateral relations," said Chaudhry. The Indian Army and its Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not respond to requests for comment.
The new Pakistani government headed by Prime Minister Imran Khan has sent strong signals for negotiations, even though it is the military that ultimately controls foreign and defense policy. "If you take a step forward, we will take two steps forward," said Khan during his victory speech in India. "We have to go from the front."
With Khan in power, the talks could have a better chance as he is considered the man of the army, according to diplomats from Islamabad and New Delhi. India considers that Khan's external relations are sanctioned by the army and considers that he will clearly present the Bajwa demands and the red lines.
Whether the military unilaterally makes such an important foreign policy decision, and before the elections, suggests that it was convinced that its favorite candidate, Khan, would win. Khan was sworn in as Prime Minister last month, following accusations that the army would intervene to support his candidacy.
Islamabad diplomats say relations with Pakistan may be partly motivated by the country's Chinese allies. Beijing urged Pakistan to stabilize its border with India, hoping for greater stability in pursuit of its regional economic ambitions. China is investing some $ 62 billion in Pakistan, mainly in major infrastructure projects, through the so-called China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, part of the global Belt and Road Initiative.
The plan would give Beijing more direct access to major western markets by building a series of roads across Pakistan, linking China's western border to Pakistan's Gwadar port on the Arabian Sea. If Pakistani troops are liberated along the border with India, they could be diverted to secure the western flank of the country, where China's trade routes would be.
Chinese Muslim insurgents who oppose the domination of Beijing have been active in Afghanistan and western Pakistan, and Pakistani insurgents, including Baluch separatists, have opposed Chinese infrastructure projects. Last month, a Baloch separatist group attacked a bus carrying Chinese workers, injuring five people.
Pakistan may also realize that it can no longer withstand its growing international isolation and its ever closer ties with the United States, which was once its closest ally. The United States cut more than $ 1 billion in aid to Pakistan in January to not do enough to fight terrorist groups, which it accuses the military of supporting.
Tensions with Washington worsened further this week when the US military said it would deny $ 300 million in aid to Pakistan just days before the first meeting of the Trump administration with Khan's new government. State Secretary Mike Pompeo is due to meet with Khan in Islamabad on Wednesday, and Pakistani lawmakers, exasperated by humanitarian aid, have asked Khan to end the meeting.
In the past, military and government officials in Pakistan have said they can resist cuts to US aid, highlighting their growing ties to China. But Pakistan was stunned this year when China put Islamabad on the terrorist financing watch list, which will make it harder and more expensive for Pakistan to raise much needed funds in international debt markets.
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