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Religious extremists, led by Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP), a new political party, immediately took to the streets in protest. A few days later, the Pakistani government, led by Prime Minister Imran Khan and his Pakistani party Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), reached an agreement providing for generous concessions to protesters, who want Bibi to be executed. Islamabad agreed to take steps to prevent Bibi, the country's highest court recently acquitted of all charges, from leaving the country. She stays in Pakistan, her life in danger.
Protesters were sometimes violent and led by a party that called on liberal activists to die and used a rallying cry of "killing all blasphemers". They were extremists and Islamabad surrendered them. It was not the first time and it would not be the last.
A year ago, when Pakistan's Pakistan Muslim League (PLMN) party led the government, the TLP led a sit-in in front of Islamabad, demanding the resignation of the Pakistani justice minister for slightly changing the religious oath by the new parliamentarians. The official resigned and the change of oath was reversed.
Then, several months ago, as a result of religious hard-line pressure, the current government asked Princeton professor Atif Mian, a distinguished Pakistani economist, to step down just days after appointing him for sit on a new advisory board on the economy. The reason? It is an Ahmadi, a deeply persecuted religious minority in Pakistan.
Initially, Khan telegraphed his desire to take a hard line against protesters last week. He spoke to the nation and described the troubles as unacceptable and harmful to Islam.
Such a hard speech was understandable. the demonstrators demanded the assassination of the judges and the mutiny of the Pakistani soldiers. Pakistan is using an iron fist against those who simply attack or criticize the state, from the Pakistani Taliban to the Pashtun Tahafouz Movement, which is demanding more rights for the Pashtuns.
Khan, however, did not walk the conversation. Indeed, as far as the Pakistani state is concerned, the risks of releasing the TLP are simply too great. The tough words of the Prime Minister are likely to sound hollow.
The crackdown on Islamists – especially in a deeply conservative and religious state – is likely to trigger large-scale unrest. In 2007, President Pervez Musharraf used force against religious students and activists arrested in the Red Mosque of Islamabad. The operation killed dozens of people and spawned numerous retaliatory attacks. This also led to the official creation of the Pakistani Taliban (TTP), which terrorized the country for nearly a decade. The sobering lessons of 2007 have not been forgotten.
In addition, taking the TLP has potentially damaging political costs – because the PTI has supporters of religious conservatism, but also because the TLP has become an ally of the PTI and the Pakistani army.
The TLP sit-in last November successfully lobbied and weakened the PLMN government, with which the PTI and the army had clashed for years. Shortly after this sit-in, Khan declared that the PTI members were ready to participate. The TLP also won more than two million votes in Pakistan's elections in 2018 – enough to reduce PMLN's vote count.
The anti-state threats of the TLP last week show how it could turn into a Frankenstein monster – another case of a Pakistani state's asset turning into an adversary. This is a scenario that the government would rather avoid.
In reality, both the PTI and the army have little incentive to thwart the TLP and its allies.
The consequences of a non-intervention policy are dramatic. As long as Islamabad prepares for this treatment, it will struggle to combat the long-standing violent extremism in Pakistan. With these intransigents entering the political mainstream and fighting for elections, their hate stories are gaining strength in society – an area already suffocated by toxic ideas propagated by textbooks, religious leaders and the media.
Moreover, if the state refuses to confront violent protests and calls for mutiny within the military, it will certainly not repress those who sit quietly in Pakistan – think Lashkar-e- Taiba and the Haqqani network – and help the security system to pursue its goals in India and Afghanistan. These organizations do not organize attacks in Pakistan, but their violent ideologies root more extremism in this country.
There is a disturbing irony here. By soothing the TLP and his ilk, Pakistan could accelerate the very destabilization that he hopes to avoid. To capitulate to the uncompromising will embolden them, giving them more confidence to impose their views in an increasingly brazen manner and contributing to an environment already conducive to extremism.
These kid gloves play with fire.
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