Patriots vs. Packers: Forecasts, Forecasts, and Statistics to Know about "Sunday Night Football"

When the patriots have the ball

The defense of Green Bay is an interesting study. The Packers rank very well in yards allocated per match (12th), but record an average point average allocated per game (17th) and a significantly lower performance average (20th of the DVOA Football Outsiders). Given that the Packers come to exchange one of the best NFL security (Ha Ha Clinton-Ten), it would be reasonable to expect that they fall in certain areas during the rest of the season. The landing may well begin Sunday night, as the Patriots are well equipped to attack the Packers where they are most vulnerable.

For years, Tom Brady's # 1 gate game option in terms of volume has been the Julian Edelman Slot Machine receiver. Edelman was out all season with a torn LCA, but in the previous four seasons, he averaged at least 6 catches and at least 66 yards through the receiving end. Although suspended for the first four weeks of the season due to a violation of the league's drug policy, Edelman returned to the path where he stopped, recording an average of 6.3 catches for 62.8 yards. per game in his first four games while operating again. mainly out of the slot. And you would not know, the location is one of the weakest points of the Packers defense. Over the year, according to Sports Info Solutions, players lined up in the slot captured 66 passes for 951 yards and nine touchdowns against the Packers. They allowed a score of 113.9 on both throws and outsiders, according to SIS, which ranks 24th in the NFL.

The overall defense against the Green Bay passes is the most vulnerable in the middle of the field, between the numbers. It allowed 76 completions out of 116 attempts, for 963 yards, 10 touchdowns and two interceptions on shots over the center, by SIS. That equates to a 112.8 smuggler rating against – the NFL's second worst in front of the Buccaneers. The Pats love their fast roads between Edelman and running back James White who isolate linebackers, guards and slits in space, and when Brady can shoot quickly over the center where no one can. catching except his passing short and fast. -catchers, it's almost impossible to defend. The Packers have been strong in passing play against the backs and the tight ends this season, but again, they traded Clinton-Dix, who played an important role in this game. It is reasonable to expect that the Pats will be more successful against James White and Rob Gronkowski than the previous opponents who threw only on the back and the ends tight.

What could be interesting on Sunday is in the running and in the clashes around the passing game.

The Patriots had run the ball very well for a while, but Sony's injury hurt their style and they had virtually no ground success against the Bills last week. With only half White and half Kenjon Barner, the Pats have turned to Cordarrelle Patterson for the majority of their games against Buffalo, and this strategy has not been successful. The Packers do not necessarily have a terrible race defense, but they were somewhat vulnerable to the ground, giving them 4.4 yards per run. They have also allocated a ton of rushing yards in their last two games, allowing the 49ers and Rams to gain 309 yards overall. If the Pats do not have Michel, however, it's hard to see them finding much success with the race. (Michel practiced in a limited way throughout this week and should be considered questionable.)

They regard White more as an extension of pitching with his ability to take short passes and hay after shooting, but they rarely give him the ball. They clearly do not trust Barner, who only had two races last week when he was one of two active defenders. And Patterson is not a running back. They need Michel to access this aspect of their offense.

On the perimeter, the Packers may have found a real star in cornerback Jaire Alexander, for whom they exchanged after a first decline in the first round of the draft of 2018. Haras Louisville very sporty (eighth among all the 2018 SPARQ with a 92th percentile athletic rating), Alexander has imposed himself as a possible stop option and probably wins his best game of the season. Alexander limited the quarterbacks to a 72.3-point pass in his direction and closely followed opponents extremely hard to cover Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods last week. It is possible that he is traveling with Josh Gordon this week in hopes of preventing the first outside receiver from New England to have an impact on the match.

When the Packers have the ball

Last week, the Packers finally discovered that Aaron Jones was the best running back of their team. After exchanging Ty Montgomery after his catastrophic debacle that cost them the opportunity to get on a winning record, Jones and Jamaal Williams are now the only game in play for the Green Bay backfield. The coaching staff still clearly trusts Williams as a passing blocker and perhaps a goaltender, but it would be wise this week to rely on Jones for an extremely fundamental New England defense that will rarely miss the tackle. Only 17 tackles were beaten by the Pats during SIS's rush attempts this season, giving them the lowest broken-down level in football. Jones, meanwhile, forced 14 missed tackles in just 44 rushing attempts, while Williams only forced seven in 63 attempts.

Being able to start the game and avoid difficult lowland situations for Rodgers is important to a vulnerable defense in the third round. The Pats allowed their opponents to convert 43% of their third-try opportunities, 26th in the NFL. The Pats have forced more third and long runs than almost any NFL team, and allowed conversions on just 28% of third attempts with six yards or more to go (68 of 105 hits against New -England needed six yards or more for a first.) Conversely, the opposing teams are 26 out of 37 on the third try, with five yards or less to argue against the Pats. This conversion rate of 70.3% is the second worst in the NFL, ahead of the Bengals.

When Rodgers goes into the air, he has a multitude of targets to choose from. In the first game, the Packers had been playing for a long time with Davies Adams, but Geronimo Allison, Randall Cobb and Marquez Valdes-Scantling all played the lead role of a No. 2/3 time share player. The same arrangement should continue Sunday night against the Pats.

Adams will likely meet a lot of Stephon Gilmore, who took his game to new heights in his second season in New England. The former corner of the Bills had some ups and downs last year, but this year it allowed a smugglers' rating of 64.7, the 26th out of 140 players who have been targeted in coverage 20 times or more. Of course, Adams has also dealt with the shadows cover this season of players such as Xavier Rhodes, Tre & # 39; Davious White, Darius Slay and Marcus Peters, and he has seen huge days against almost everyone. Rodgers trusts him as much as any quarterback trusts a football receiver. He is not afraid to throw the ball into a small window and will bet that Adams will use his body as a shield and will lower with the ball or prevent the corner. . Adams himself has exploded in the past three games with 24 assists, 405 yards and three touchdowns, averaging 8-135-1 with a 69% catch rate.

If and when Rodgers sees Adams lined up against a Gilmore corner, he should just shoot the ball in his own way every time. Eric Rowe is now in the year due to a groin injury, allowing former Task Force member Jonathan Jones to hold a full-time position. Jones has overall worked well this year, but Adams has a major advantage over him that he does not have against the bigger Gilmore. Considering that Rodgers throwing types generally go to Adams with (inclinations, melts, troughs, etc.), the advantage of the size should help him to see the success in this game.

Whether it be Allison, Cobb, Valdes-Scantling or Jimmy Graham can have a big impact, it will probably depend on how Belichick and the game plan of the game. company for Packers. Belichick loves to close off versatile tips like Graham, who can play in the middle of the field, but this requires devoting additional resources to places where he might not be normally, which may pave the way for Cobb or a deeper type to double shot plays for Allison or Valdes-Scantling. For the Packers to be able to use these routes, they must provide Rodgers with good protection so he can stay in the pocket and wait for them to grow.

Prediction: Patriots 31, Packers 27