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While Paul Manafort's second criminal trial is looming, former President Donald Trump would be in talks with Special Advisor Robert Mueller about a possible deal before launching the case. .
But no matter what Manafort ultimately chooses, Justice Department veterans say it's a high-risk bet that could very well end with the fact that he spends the rest of his days in jail.
Mueller's office indicted Manafort in two separate indictments as part of his investigation into the Russian interference in the 2016 elections. Manafort pleaded not guilty in both cases and he was found guilty during his first trial at the beginning of the summer of eight counts of tax evasion, bank fraud and non-declaration of foreign bank account. He faces a decade of prison.
In the second case, brought to Washington, DC, Manafort was charged with unlawful lobbying, conspiracy, obstruction of justice and money laundering.
Patrick Cotter, a former federal prosecutor who was part of the team that sentenced the Gambino family's chief, John Gotti, said Manafort was "very motivated" to consider an advocacy agreement to minimize the extra years it is recognized guilty in the second trial.
Legal experts say the best option for Manafort would be to plead guilty to certain charges and agree to cooperate with prosecutors. In this way, he would be guaranteed a lenient sentence.
But given his aggressive defense strategy so far, as well as public comments from his lawyers, it is unlikely that Manafort will accept such an agreement.
At the beginning of the summer, for example, Manafort's senior attorney, Kevin Downing, said there was "no chance" that his client would turn against the president. The comment suggests that Manafort is betting hard to get a Trump grace, which has repeatedly complained of the unfair treatment of Manafort.
If Manafort agreed to cooperate with federal prosecutors, this could jeopardize any possibility of pardon.
This leaves three options.
Door number one: to plead guilty, but not to cooperate
Manafort could potentially pursue a plea agreement that allows it to admit certain charges, but without a cooperation agreement. This option, above all, would leave the door open to a presidential pardon.
It would also take a little time if he decided to choose this option. The federal sentencing guidelines state that defendants get a point in their sentence calculation – which translates into a reduction in sentence – they plead guilty in time to save the government from preparing a case and try it.
The problem in the case of Manafort, however, is that the trial will begin in a few days. The selection of the jury must begin Monday and the opening arguments are scheduled for September 24. This means that prosecutors have already spent all their time and money preparing for this case.
"If the government accepts a plea agreement without cooperation now, they are saving nothing in terms of time, money, or resources," Cotter said. "The only way they would accept an agreement involving the rejection of some charges and asking for less punishment is that it involves a cooperation agreement."
If Manafort had decided to pursue a guilty plea last month, immediately after being found guilty in the first trial, the experts said it would have been realistic to reach an agreement without having to cooperate. Now, they say it's too late.
This leaves two other options, none of which bode well for the former president of the Trump campaign.
Door number two: "Eat the indictment"
If Manafort chooses to go to trial, he could borrow one of the two lanes. The first would imply that he pleads guilty to all the charges against him from the beginning of the trial, a tactic known as "eating the indictment."
In this case, Manafort "would put himself at the mercy of the court," said Jeffrey Cramer, a former longtime federal attorney in Chicago. "Then the prosecutors can defend anything they want for Manafort's sentence, but it's ultimately up to the judge to weigh two opposing views on what the sentence should be."
If Manafort chose this route, it would send a clear message to the White House that he was still in the corner of Trump. The judge supervising the case would probably show him some indulgence because he would have admitted his guilt.
"And I hope the sentence that Manafort would get would go along with the sentence of his first trial," which means that both sentences would be executed at the same time, Cramer said. "If they run consecutively, however, now, Manafort spends 10 years to 15 or 16 years in prison."
If Manafort chose this option, it would also force Manafort to detail the details of his alleged criminal activity. This possibility would likely shake the White House, because the Washington-DC case against Manafort is more deeply related to Manafort's collusion and time on the Trump campaign than the first case against him, mainly focused on the financial crimes of Manafort. .
Door number three: dust off and go to trial
The last option is for Manafort to go out and go to trial.
This is the riskiest route for the former president of the Trump campaign for a few reasons.
The first talks about Mueller's track record so far in the investigation of Russia. Of the seven people charged in the United States, six pleaded guilty and one person, Manafort, was sentenced at the end of a lawsuit.
"The evidence is there," said Cramer. "These are not false accusations." If Manafort goes on trial, it will probably be like a slow and long guilty plea, given Mueller's evidence and the manner in which Manafort's first trial took place. . "
Cotter agreed.
"After all I can say about this case and what has been made public, as well as what we saw in its first trial, the government has very little chance of not being sentenced if this second trial is continuing, "he said.
A second lawsuit would also put a damper on Manafort's finances, which took a hit when he decided to go ahead with the first lawsuit instead of signing an agreement, as he did. his former partner Rick Gates.
That said, Manafort has two chances to be judged.
The first is that if Manafort is found guilty, he will not be found guilty of all charges. In his first trial, for example, Manafort was charged with 18 counts but convicted on only eight counts, as one juror withheld the other ten charges.
"The best thing for Manafort to do is to plead guilty and cooperate," Cotter said, "but if he does not, he should shoot him and bring this case to trial. A lawyer can tell him to roll the dice and fight him. "
The second advantage is that, like the two previous options, Manafort would leave the door open for a presidential pardon when he went on trial. It could even increase its chances in this case, according to experts, because the stress of going through the entire public process would elicit a stronger response from the president, who frequently accuses the special council of participating in a politically motivated fishing expedition to undermine his presidency. .
"The only thing I would tell him if I was his lawyer is that you no longer have good choices," Cotter said. "There are no good choices, there are just different levels of bad choices at this stage of your life."
Cramer echoed this view.
"Manafort must hope and pray – and make no mistake, that's what it is, a hope and a prayer – that the president will forgive him at some point," he said. "And Manafort must be comfortable with his belief that it will happen if he has to bet his freedom on that."
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