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Nearly two years after the 2016 elections, parties continue to fight for race and gender issues. In Brett Kavanaugh's Supreme Court confirmation process, Democrats said allegations of sexual assault had been ruled out, while Republicans felt the accusations were used unfairly to promote a political agenda. In the purges of the electoral lists of the states, the Democrats saw the suppression of the black voters whereas the Republicans saw the racialization of a purely political conflict. How is it that both sides see the issues of race and gender so differently?
A large body of research has shown that voters were more divided by race and gender views in the 2016 elections than in previous elections. But it turns out that rather than supporting the political parties that best represent their views on race and gender, the effect is likely to be more often the reverse: the parties can shape the personal beliefs of the parties. voters. Candidates and elected officials may lead to a change of mind, or loyalty to a party may dictate both that person's beliefs and preferences as a candidate.
Several new articles use panel studies, which map changes in opinion by repeatedly re-interviewing the same voters over time, to determine what came first: did voters choose their party or candidate? based on their previous opinions on race and gender or have they updated views after choosing their party or candidate? A working document used data from Seven different panel surveys to examine attitudes that a representative sample of white Americans at the national level had about race and partisanship. It was found that during the last three presidential cycles, it was more obvious that white voters had changed their conception of racial discrimination to suit their political party rather than the political partisanship of those voters. The 2016 campaign in particular had the effect of shifting racial attitudes towards the partisanship of voters, especially among politically minded voters. The inflammatory remarks of Donald Trump – and Hillary Clinton's efforts to qualify them as disqualifying – have probably prompted more Democrats to perceive discrimination as a major problem that must be addressed (some Republicans adopting the opposite view) .
The cause-and-effect relationship is less clear when survey participants were directly asked about their general feelings about various racial groups. The same study of seven surveys examined the warmth with which participants felt toward whites and racial minorities. White Americans who felt more warmly towards whites than blacks in 2016 became more Republican (although partisanship also led some to change their views on both racial groups). Another longer-term study by FiveThirtyEight political scientist and collaborator Daniel Hopkins followed the same white voters for nine years and revealed that the predictive anti-black sentiment predicts the vote for Trump.
But voters on specific racial issues rather than on their more general feelings about minority groups were more likely to follow their candidate preferences. A study by Peter Enns at Cornell University revealed that Trump and Clinton voters had changed their views on controversies such as the Black Lives Matter movement in order to align with the views of their candidates rather than to choose their candidate based on their views on the issue.
We have less evidence on how gender attitudes have changed, but voters may have also changed attitudes towards women in 2016 to match their candidate's position. Survey experiments and a panel study show that Trump's comments on women prompted his supporters to both tolerate and express sexist views – changes that were still evident in 2018 Meanwhile, the Democrats' belief that gender discrimination is a major issue has increased since Trump's election.
Although media attention has largely focused on Trump's constituents, a working paper has shown that it is actually Clinton voters who have undergone the most dramatic party change of 2016 (echoing other findings). The most important changes in conceptions of race and sex took place among white liberals; their perception of racial and gender discrimination has increased, their feelings for minorities have improved and their support for policies to increase diversity, such as positive and enabling action; increased immigration, has increased. Voters who have always voted Democrats have moved left on these issues, especially young voters. This means that studies showing an increased association between Trump's support and conservative viewpoints on race and gender may in part Actually reflect the democrats becoming more liberal on these issues.
Thus, Trump's darkest depictions leading to a growing victory over racism and sexism may be somewhat overestimated. The research on the 2016 election does not support the idea that Trump would have benefited from a comprehensive strategy. increase in racist and sexist attitudes among white voters; on the contrary, the evidence shows that liberal-minded voters have a way his views faster than the conservatives moved towards them.
Americans are now even more divided on the extent of discrimination in the country and the pros or cons of combating it. Since Trump took office, his administration has regularly sparked controversies over immigration, sexual assault and racial intolerance. In addition, experiments show that Trump, as president, is able to change the Republicans' point of view on various issues, suggesting that divisions could continue to grow. The panel studies I reviewed, as well as other studies, have highlighted the fact that partisanship and racial and sexual divisions can reinforce each other over time.
In the run-up to the mid-term elections of 2018, Republicans and Democrats can now rely on the views of their party leaders on issues such as the appointment of President Kavanaugh and the purges of voters lists. . The Trump administration, the Liberals' resistance to it, and the 2018 campaign cycle give us no reason to believe that the divisions in our society will soon subside.
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