Players, coaches with the most to win, lose in the second half of the 2018 NFL season

In this spirit, players, coaches and leaders are many and rely heavily on what will happen in the coming weeks in the second half of the season. Think of someone like Case Keenum, who nearly lost his seat after launching two interceptions against Washington in Week 9 a year ago. Keenum retained his position, won six of his next seven games and earned $ 25 million guaranteed in the contract he signed with the Broncos during the off season. If Keenum had been chosen for Teddy Bridgewater, it was perhaps the former star of Louisville who won the big contract and Keenum who had signed a one-year pact.

Let's look at the league players who have the most to win or lose in the next few months. Many of these players were touched by the games we saw in Week 8. Let's start with a quarterback who was banned on the bench Sunday:

Go to the player or coach:
Winston | Bell | Carr | Ansah | Ford
Juron | J. Brown | Jackson / Haley

There are three NFL teams in Florida. The one to a fourth departing injured. Another compared his disappointing young quarterback last week. The third team from Florida made the same Sunday. I mentioned last Monday that the Jaguars were likely to quickly reinstate Blake Bortles in the starting formation, knowing that they did not really have a viable backup and that they were already ready to play at Bortles until 2019.

The Buccaneers could put Winston back in the lineup for Sunday's game against the Panthers, but they do not have the same excuses to maintain the status quo. In Ryan Fitzpatrick, they have a credible substitute who was better in this scheme than those teammates as recently as last month. And while the Bucs once used Winston's first overall pick choice and opted for their fifth-year option for 2019 before the season, the only thing that would require them to pay Winston after this season would be an injury. His contract status means that we must think of Winston's future differently.

Even though Fitzpatrick was chosen for Winston earlier this year, the two are not comparable remotely. While they've split Tampa's assists attempts near 50-50, the Bucs have been much more productive with Fitzpatrick under center this season:

I do not think the difference between the two is so important in the future, but it's safe to assume that Fitzpatrick is the best quarterback of both. Their number in the last four years has been virtually identical. Since Winston entered the league, he has posted a score of 86.1 for smugglers and a total score for the QBR of 56.5. During the same period, Fitzpatrick was good for a passer of 85.4 and a total QBR of … 56.6.

However, with the Buccaneers, Fitz got 101.6 points and 69.1 Total QBR, and I wonder if he's better suited for this attack designed to scare the teams vertically. He was much more effective on the deep passes, completing 60% of his throws for more than 16 yards while recording an average of 20.1 yards per attempt. Winston is at 45.9% and 10.5 yards per deep pass.

The reason why Winston was benched, however, was his turnover problem. The Florida State product has launched at least two interceptions in each of his four appearances this season, which is impressive if we consider that he played only half against the Bears when the third week and three quarters against the Bengals on Sunday. Winston threw 10 choices on just 148 pass attempts. He fumbled four times and lost one.

And yet, at the same time, you can not discard these streams. Winston had intercepted an interception on the line, but it was a room in which he froze and seemed to be in a tough competition before getting rid of the ball. He has repeatedly struggled to recognize linebackers and leading forwards who arrived late in his throwing lanes, which was a problem for Lynch's choice. The throws in the middle of the field were an absolute love at first sight. In the third quarter on Sunday, Winston was tied for the missing receivers, as was the case with Cameron Brate, according to next-generation NFL statistics:

His propensity for turnarounds will not appeal to teams that could theoretically look for a pair of safe hands, like Jaguars. The Dolphins are the only team with a competitive record that does not have a quarterback or first round pick. They could theoretically sue Winston if Ryan Tannehill is not about to return. This is not really a commercial market.

3. Restore Fitzpatrick as a starter at the moment. This option falls somewhere moderate risk, low reward. Although Fitzpatrick struggled in the first half against the Steelers and the Bears in September, the Buccaneers were too aggressive to pass from their acting lead. He totaled 114.4 passers and a total QBR of 75.3 points when the Bucs put him on Winston's bench in the middle of a bad start to the game against the Bears, who own one. the best football anti-pass defenses when Khalil Mack is in good health.

Fitzpatrick is not the best option for the franchise's long-term prospects, and his long-term track record suggests that he's a quarterback, but he's also done enough when he goes into 2017 and early 2018 to justify having a longer look at the work while Winston gets together. If Koetter gives him a shot – and a longer lead than a bad half of football against an excellent defense – he could save Koetter time while leaving Tampa with flexibility with his quarterback options. If Fitzpatrick continues to play well, the Bucs could move from Winston to signing a short-term contract, waiting to find their long-term solution in the 2019 or 2020 draft versions. If Fitzpatrick struggled, the Bucs could return to Winston, although this scenario would likely mean the end of Koetter's tenure.

4. Give the job to Winston on a short leash. This seems to be the most plausible answer and falls within the category of moderate risk, moderate reward. The decision to place Fitzpatrick almost immediately on Winston's benches suggests that the Tampa project still consisted of moving directly to the fourth-year shift post, which makes sense. Winston has a higher cap given his age, and although the Bucs run the risk of being trapped by the bill on a wounded Winston in 2019, the chances of this happening are relatively slim.

At the same time, they will probably have to consider assigning certain tasks to Fitzpatrick. Winston is reducing the offensive for several games now and Tampa needs to see him improve before considering extending his post season. It's hard to think of another team that will find Winston's combination of field interceptions and repetitive behavior as appealing as the Buccaneers in recent seasons. For Winston, it could be Tampa or the bust. For Koetter, this could be Winston or the bust. The Bucs could slip away anyway.

The most likely return date for Bell is Halloween, as the league's trade deadline is October 30th. Assuming that the Pittsburgh star reports to the Steelers and signs his pro rata franchise agreement, can we consider his success a success? The answer to this question might become clear only during the off season.

Let's start with what we know. Bell missed the first half of the season and therefore did not suffer the type of serious injury that would have jeopardized a long-term contract. At the same time, Bell missed more than $ 6.8 million worth of gambling audits during this period. You assume that $ 6.8 million would have allowed Bell to acquire a significant policy of loss of value while securing its future.

Regarding Bell's absence on the field, the Steelers were doing well with James Conner. It's not the same caliber of receiver as Bell and it does not have the patience or near-instant acceleration of Bell, but as we've seen from the 212-yard match Connect against Brown, Sunday, two years ago. is able to serve as a reasonable facsimile to his much more expensive brothers. Conner has not touched the ball as often as Bell in recent seasons, but he has not been far this season, touch after key, from the 2016-17 Bell edition:

The Steelers averaged 24.8 points per game on offense, with Bell in the 2016-17 formation. The offense averaged 26.6 points per game in his absence this season. I do not think it's fair to say that Pittsburgh would have been better without Bell – the scores are up in the overall championship after all – but the difference between Bell and Conner's n & # 39; This was not the same as the difference in salary between them, which equates to about $ 14 million over a full season.

What happens next could mean millions. If Bell comes back and pulls a hamstring, it could cost him a month. If he's suffering from a more serious injury, the consequences could be even greater. If Conner outclasses it until the end of the season, some teams will be reluctant to pay $ 15 million a season to Bell, when the Steelers will be able to bring someone else to a minimum and get a similar level of play. . There is a non-zero chance that the Bell market never materializes and he is content with a one-year contract in the hope of returning to freedom after a huge 2019.

Of course, there is also a scenario in which Bell's shares increase. If a new Bell plays half of the season on new legs and rests more often with Conner spelling to stretch, he may be able to replenish a fierce second half. If Bell breaks every 50-yard game and leads a dominant Steelers offensive in a deep playoff run, teams with brief memories might be inclined to go beyond to add a game changer like Bell to the training.

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James Conner has 146 yards and two touchdowns in the Steelers win over the Browns.

Lost amidst the fury of the Amari Cooper trade, it's the fact that the Raiders traded Carr's best receiver. Cooper had been inconsistent over the previous year and a first-round pick might have been too good to let a player pass that the Raiders did not like as much as the double, but the Oakland quarterback is getting into which could be a pivotal season with Jared Cook and Jordy Nelson as main targets. Good enough for 2013. Not so much for 2018.

The first returns for Carr were not bad. Against an underestimated Colts defense, Carr undoubtedly played her best game of the season with 21 of 28 passes for a total of 244 yards with three touchdowns, no interceptions and a total QBR of 93.9. It was his first match with a QBR of over 90 since the 8th week against the Jets in 2015, almost exactly three years ago.

The numbers could be a bit generous looking at the tape. Carr took advantage of a thick pocket for most of the day because he was not fired, was spilled only once and did not suffer. than 16.9% of its losses. His best match of the game was against one of those rare pressures, when he found himself in the red pocket to find Brandon LaFell for a 6-yard score, which would give the Raiders a third quarter advance. His job of installing Cook on a fake screen before a touch is exactly what you would write on paper.

Later in the game, Carr missed an open receiver in what has become a crucial moment. In the third and third with an equal score and 9:34 to play in the fourth quarter, Carr knocked over a Seth Roberts open on what should have been an easy conversion and a play-by-piece possible. Next-generation NFL statistics gave Carr, who had 17 consecutive passes, a 84.9% chance of reaching the pitch. He missed it. The Colts scored and took the lead in their next possession, then scored again after a fumble from Doug Martin. When Carr launched his next pass, the Raiders lost 14 points in 2:55 to go.

If Carr continues its momentum, the Raiders might be inclined to stay around their quarter as they continue to rebuild themselves. It could be lucrative. Carr plans a base salary of $ 19.9 million in 2019, making it the fifth-highest salary for next season. If the Raiders reduce their young quarterback, it's hard to imagine Carr getting so much money elsewhere.

Carr could keep his salary in exchange, but I do not think he will move before Tuesday's deadline. Money is not the problem, since any team should absorb a proportional base salary of $ 3.9 million to acquire Carr without more money guaranteed in his contract. The Raiders could theoretically be willing to shop Carr if another team is willing to send a first-round pick, but it did not play well enough for it to make sense. If he can maintain this level of play during the rest of the campaign, the Raiders will have an interesting decision to make for this off season.

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Mike Clay talks about what Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett, Kenny Golladay and DJ Moore think.

It was a lost season for Ansah, who had injured his shoulder during the first week and has not played since. Ansah has always practiced in a limited way, so he seemed to be coming back, but the Lions had their star pass for only 19 defensive shots. Perhaps in the same vein, the Lions rank 28th in the DVOA pass defense before Sunday's game against the Seahawks.

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It did not go well. The Lions were no match for the Seahawks and protected Russell Wilson from their new skills. Detroit returned Wilson twice on 19 laps, but the Seahawks star scored for 248 yards and three touchdowns in 17 attempts. A fourth score was recorded only because striker Nick Vannett went off the field before taking a so-called TD.

Detroit has produced good bag numbers this season, but that was a bit of a hit. The league's best sack rate is 10.1%, but they are only 20th in the ranking of pressure players. As you might expect, they transform a disproportionate amount of their bag pressures. The world average is 22.1%, but the Lions lead the rank with 36.5%. It will be difficult to continue like this. The Jaguars led the league in this category this season last season with 36.7%, but they only transformed 20.8% of their bag pressures in the 9-17 week.

The Lions will need a return from Ansah and Ansah would have a lot to gain from a big second. If he excels, the team will either be forced to pay his former election, in the first round, a $ 20.5 million franchise label, either to let him go to the free agency , where a desperate market for pass enthusiasts will likely target Ansah for something in the $ 74 million contract range over four years. If Ansah continues to run out of time with his shoulder injury and only plays a few games towards the end of the season, the Ansah market will likely consist of one year offers with a chance. to restore its value and become a free agent after 2019.

Similarly, one of the Chiefs' defense strengths could become an autonomous player opportunity if he was allowed to enter the market. Ford seemed on the verge of losing importance after a season of 10 sacks in 2016, but the former first player missed 10 games due to a back injury a year ago then that he only recorded two bags. The Chiefs were stuck in the bag for Ford's fifth-year option, knowing that the 27-year-old would have struggled to pass a medical exam after undergoing a back operation.

Ford is an unrestricted free agent after the season and the Chiefs will remain stuck. The former first round player has already missed out with a groin injury and was sent off a match earlier this season. If he's missing for part of the second half and he's slowing down, Kansas City will likely consider him a franchise target for 2019. If Ford continues in the same vein and ends the season with 15 bags, the Chiefs will probably turn to a long-term contract. Ford could very well be vying for a five-year contract worth around $ 75 million when it finished well, and the Chiefs might need a more accurate map, Justin Houston, in order to free up some leeway to keep Ford in the vicinity.

One of the defensive defensemen of the year, Swearinger took his time to regain his form at the Pro Bowl. The former second round choice quickly caught fire in Houston, thanks to a propensity for freelancing and disinterest in playing with special teams. South Carolina's product bounced around the Bucs and Cardinals, while Bruce Arians threatened to cut Swearinger for joining Chandler Jones in a celebratory night, before revitalizing his career in Arizona and signing a contract of 13, $ 5 million with Washington before the 2017 season.

The Swearinger athlete has always been able to hit, but his instinct has improved considerably, which Swearinger fears for an unparalleled film study. Result: Swearinger has recorded 11 interceptions since the start of 2016, which is tied for second place in the NFL, behind Marcus Peters' 12.

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Redskins safety D.J. Swearinger arrive avec deux interceptions lancées par Eli Manning.

Regarder le film d'Eli Manning cette saison pourrait être un défi pour les plus fous du football, mais Swearinger a fait ses devoirs et a remporté deux de ses quatre interceptions en tête du championnat lors de la victoire dimanche contre les Giants. Le premier était le choix du peloton, alors que Swearinger poussait un receveur avant la victoire sur Odell Beckham Jr. pour une interception dans la zone rouge, lui permettant d'économiser au moins trois points. Plus tard dans le match, il a capturé ce que même Swearinger devrait décrire comme un bras dégonflé de Manning aux troisième et 18e.

Swearinger est une bonne affaire pour son contrat actuel, puisque le joueur de 27 ans gagne 3 millions de dollars cette année et n’a plus que 4,5 millions de dollars la dernière année de son contrat en 2019. S'il continue à jouer à ce niveau, être une surprise si Washington lui a donné une prolongation avec une augmentation lourde au printemps prochain.

L'une des plus grandes réussites de la catégorie des agents libres de cette année, Brown semble enfin en bonne santé après avoir lutté jusqu'en 2016 avec un kyste à la colonne vertébrale et diverses blessures en 2017, peut-être attribuables à son trait drépanocytaire. L’ancienne menace des Cardinals a été maintenue à 28 verges dimanche lors d’une défaite contre les Panthers, mais au cours de la première moitié de la saison, Brown a accumulé 586 verges et quatre touchés, tous deux en avance sur les Ravens.

Brown, qui a signé un contrat de 5 millions de dollars pour un an, pourrait bien prétendre à un gros contrat dans un marché des agents indépendants désespérément minces en mars prochain. S'il maintient ce rythme et termine l'année avec près de 1 200 verges de gain, Brown pourrait rechercher quelque chose de similaire au contrat de 33,5 millions $ signé par DeSean Jackson avec les Bucs avant la saison 2017, pour un montant de 33,5 millions de dollars. Si Brown ne parvient pas à rester en bonne santé et termine la saison avec une série de matchs de 24 verges et de DNP, il va probablement remporter un autre contrat d'un an pour une somme modique.

Brown est un receveur qui pourrait bénéficier d'un changement possible au poste de quart pour les Ravens. Joe Flacco continue à se débattre sur le type de passes profondes dans lesquelles Brown excelle. Lorsque les Ravens ont lancé 16 verges ou plus dans les airs cette saison, Flacco a affiché une note de 51,5 pour les passeurs et un total de 45,4 pour le QBR total. Winston (41,0) et Josh Allen (12,0) sont les seuls quarts de la ligue à avoir obtenu la pire note de passeurs lors des lancers profonds. Au cours des trois dernières saisons, Bortles est le seul quart-arrière à avoir été moins performant sur ces lancers. Les Corbeaux ne semblent pas prêts à effectuer un changement sous le centre, mais s’ils le font au cours de la saison, Brown serait la cible la plus probable pour continuer à jouer.

Les Browns ne sont pas 0-6, mais à 2-5-1, ils ont laissé de potentielles victoires sur la table avec des équipes spéciales médiocres et une prise de décision douteuse. Cleveland a obtenu un gros jeu rare sur des équipes spéciales dimanche lorsque les Steelers n'ont pas réussi à donner un coup franc après une sécurité, alors que les Browns ont récupéré le ballon pour un montant de 56 verges. Les Browns ont marqué un touché pour porter le score à 16-12 au troisième quart, mais le nouveau botteur Greg Joseph a raté un point supplémentaire. Les Steelers ont rapidement dirigé Conner dans le peloton pour 17 points consécutifs avant que les Browns ne comptent un temps record.

L'infraction est toujours un travail en cours. Lors de la première partie du match contre les Steelers, Baker Mayfield et ses demis ont apparemment dû faire face à des buteurs libres dans le champ arrière à chaque instant. Il a affiché une note de 52,0 au premier trimestre, alors que les Brown devraient présenter des pièces de théâtre conçues pour donner le rythme à Mayfield et renforcer la confiance de la recrue. (Mitchell Trubisky, par exemple, a obtenu une note de 122,4 au premier trimestre.) L’agent libre non planté Desmond Harrison, qui était responsable de la sécurité, a fait preuve d’une extrême incohérence au tacle gauche.

Les solutions ne sont pas encore claires. Jackson expliquera davantage comment il doit utiliser des joueurs tels que Duke Johnson et Nick Chubb sans augmenter réellement leur charge de travail, comme ce fut le cas avant le négoce de Carlos Hyde. Haley seemed to add more RPOs and creativity to the attack after replacing Tyrod Taylor with Mayfield, but just 18.2 percent of the rookie quarterback's dropbacks have come out of play-action, the third-lowest rate in the league among passers with 200 or more this season. Mayfield's QBR is nearly 13 points higher on play-action, and he threw more than 44 percent of his passes with some element of play-action in his final season at Oklahoma.

Both coaches have a lot to lose. Haley might have been dreaming of a head-coaching job if the Steelers had been able to take that final step into a Super Bowl while he was their offensive coordinator. Instead, his contract wasn't renewed after the 2017 season, and he went to Cleveland. If he gets fired halfway through Year 1, Haley might have to look for a college job or settle for a lesser role at the NFL level in 2019.