Poll: Hunter leads the race for reelection despite the act of indictment

Republican Duncan Hunter (R-Calif.), Accused of embezzling campaign funds in August, is leading his Democratic opponent in a new poll released Thursday by Monmouth University.

Hunter has 49% support for the 41% of Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar among all potential voters, including voters who have participated in elections since 2010 or who have recently registered to vote. Another 10% of voters are still undecided. Under two models of likely voters, Hunter's lead has increased. A medium-term historical model shows Hunter with 53% of the votes on the 38% of Campa-Najjar. Another model that provides for a potential increase in participation, Hunter still leads from 51% to 40%.

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In August, a federal grand jury accused Hunter and his wife of using hundreds of thousands of dollars from Hunter's campaign account to pay for their personal expenses, including family vacations, tuition and places. theatre.

But the indictment did not turn voters in California's 50th congressional district – a Republican-heavy slice of San Diego County – against Hunter, at least not yet, according to the poll. . One in ten who thinks Hunter is "probably guilty of the charges" is always ready to support his re-election bid. Just under 40% of voters believe that Hunter is guilty or certainly guilty of these charges.

Hunter is also better known than his Democratic challenger. A third of voters have an unfavorable opinion of Hunter, while 35% have considered it positively. Another third of the voters do not have an opinion on the congressman. A quarter of voters have a favorable opinion of Campa-Najjar, a former staff member of the Obama administration, while 60% have no opinion on him.

For nearly half a century, the region was represented either by Hunter or his father, also known as Duncan Hunter.

The young fighter, who was first elected in 2008, has been easily re-elected for the seat since, and the district has backed President Donald Trump by 15 points in 2016. More than half of the voters approved the vote. Trump University. while 42% disapprove. Those who strongly approve of the president are more numerous than those who strongly disapprove of it.

Hunter holds a lead over Campa-Najjar among white voters with college degrees, 50% to 42% – a block of voters who have largely bent on Democrats this round. Campa-Najjar leads among minority voters.

The poll of Monmouth University polled 401 likely voters from September 22 to September 26. The margin of error is plus or minus 5 percentage points.