WASHINGTON – New polls show Democrats are doing well in the Great Lakes industrial states, which played a crucial role in President Donald Trump's victory.

Senate Democratic candidates have a double-digit lead in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, according to polls released Wednesday by Ipsos Public Affairs. Democrats vying for governorship in these states also have good benefits.

"We embarked on this thinking thinking that these races would be a little closer," said Ipsos Vice President Chris Jackson.

The exceptions are a deadly heat in the Indiana Senate race and in the Ohio Governors contest.

Trump won Indiana – the home of his running mate – by 19 percentage points and captured the swing state of Ohio by 8 points.

But it was Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that propelled Trump to victory with thin margins in those states.

If Clinton had won all three – as many expected – she would have won the election, but she lost each of them by less than 1% of the vote.

These three states combined had not supported a Republican candidate since Ronald Reagan in 1984.

Now, a larger portion of the likely voters polled in these states said they were motivated to vote for a candidate who would oppose Trump, compared to those wishing a candidate who would support Trump.

The most important gap has been observed in Michigan, where 56% of them want a candidate able to resist Trump, versus 41% who want a Trump ally.

In Indiana, on the other hand, voters are split about equally. That could be one of the reasons why Indiana Senator Joe Donnelly is engaged in a close fight with Republican challenger Mike Braun.

In the five states studied, health care and the economy were the main problem for voters. One in five likely voters in Wisconsin have designated it as the most important issue in determining their vote.

"That's really the focus of this year's Democrats," Jackson said of health care.

Here is an overview of the situation in these states:

Indiana

Democratic Senator Joe Donnelly is racing against Republican Mike Braun, 46 to 43 percent.

Not quite half of the likely voters (48%) are motivated to vote for a candidate who supports Trump and not quite half (47%) want to vote for a candidate who is opposed to Trump.

(Online survey of 1,181 registered voters from September 12 to 19. The credibility interval is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.)

Michigan

Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow leads Republican John James 55-35%.

Democratic presidential nominee Gretchen Whitmer leads Republican Bill Schuette 52 to 39 percent.

More than half (56%) of likely voters are motivated to vote for a candidate who is opposed to Trump, compared to 41% for a candidate who supports Trump.

(Online survey of 1,150 registered voters from September 14 to 21. The credibility interval is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.)

Pennsylvania

Democratic Senator Bob Casey leads Republican Lou Barletta from 53 to 37 percent.

Democratic governor Tom Wolf leads Republican Scott Wagner by 55-38 percent.

More than half (55%) of likely voters are motivated to vote for a candidate who opposes Trump, versus 43% for a candidate who supports Trump.

(Online survey of 1,080 registered voters from September 12 to 19. The credibility interval is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.)

Ohio

Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown leads Republican Jim Renacci by 50 to 39 percent.

Democratic presidential candidate Richard Cordray is running against Republican Mike DeWine (44% to 45%).

About half (52%) of likely voters are motivated to vote for a candidate who is opposed to Trump, compared to 46% for a candidate who supports Trump.

(Online survey of 1,074 registered voters from September 13 to 20. The credibility interval is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.)

Wisconsin

Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin leads Republican Leah Vukmir from 52 to 39 percent.

Democratic challenger Tony Evers leads Republican Gov. Scott Walker by 50 to 43 percent.

More than half (54%) of likely voters are motivated to vote for a candidate who is opposed to Trump, versus 42% for a candidate who supports Trump.

(Online survey of 1,109 registered voters from September 14 to 21. The credibility interval is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.)

Contributor: Todd Spangler, Detroit Free Press.

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