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Humans may not be threatened by the possibility of a globalization of African swine fever, but the pork economy and associated value chains may well find that the year of hog in 2019 is more of a curse than a blessing.
In China, pork is a staple, a dominant part of the national diet. In fact, the Chinese eat so much pork, more than twice the world average, that the country produces half of the world's pigs, nearly 700 million animals a year. China is also the only country to maintain a strategic pork reserve, while the global pork industry is estimated at more than US $ 20 billion. For example, recent recent reports of a new type of swine fever, that is for the moment unstoppable, can potentially sink into the desperation of anyone living in China whose livelihoods pigs.
Although this is the time of year when we regularly read reports about outbreaks of certain avian influenza strains, swine fever is quite different. It was the 2009 swine flu pandemic that led to the introduction of body temperature sensors at airports and luxury buildings around the world, a practice that continues today.
One problem is that we know very little about PPP. Scientists think that its origins go back to the beginning of the 20th century, in Africa, of course. The disease is maintained because transmission occurs between asymptomatic wild animals. The change comes when wild pigs meet their domesticated cousins, and we know a lot about this issue. According to SupChina, "infected domestic pigs have bleeding in every organ and from every orifice, with a typical death rate of 100% within 6 to 10 days".
If there is good news, they are there. Infected pigs die so quickly that there is little time left to transmit the disease. Yet, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of the PRC takes no chances by saying: "Prevention and control [of ASF] is very serious.
A week ago, the South China Morning Post announced that more than 100,000 pigs had already been slaughtered. Today, 19 areas in China have reported an epidemic. A case in Shanghai is among the most recent, raising fears among the population, according to an article on Baijiahao, the content publishing platform managed by Baidu. About 50 of the 314 pigs from a farm in Jinshan District were infected, killing 11 people.
In our own Jiangsu province, nearly 14,577 pigs were slaughtered in August alone in Lianyungang, of which 615 were infected with PPA, killing 88 people. According to an interactive map on Caixin, Jiangsu is second only to Liaoning, in the northeast of the country.
At the same time, a press release from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, issued in July, said: "There is no vaccine nor any cure for the disease. In its most virulent strain, it is 100% lethal to infected pigs. However, unlike swine flu, PPP does not pose a direct threat to human health. "
That being said, other viruses have mutated into strains that can have an impact on human health. It is therefore worth noting the resilience of APP. The research article titled "Survival of viral pathogens in feed ingredients according to cross-border shipping models," published in the Plos One Scientific Research Depot, reveals that the APP can survive in an outdoor environment for a long time; Shoe soles, clothing and truck tires can harbor the virus for more than a month.
In China, culinary habits also play a role. With the virus able to survive temperatures of up to 60 degrees Celsius, the local preference for skip does not kill the PPA. Then there are the blue bins always present pig oozing, mainly leftovers, which make their appearance at night outside many local restaurants and which are in fact the ideal conduit for ASF.
People born in the year of the pig are said to be generous, diligent and friendly, while pigs mean, among other things, prosperity. With a year of the very poor pig on the horizon, the animal seems to need all our sympathy for the pursuit of its prosperity.
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