Possible Temperatures This century could melt parts of the East Antarctic ice sheet, raise the sea level by 10 feet and more

A study published in Nature Wednesday reveals that a portion of the eastern Antarctic ice cap that contains three to four meters (about 10 to 13 feet) of potential sea-level rise could melt if temperatures rose only two degrees above pre-industrial levels.

Researchers from Imperial College London, the University of Queensland and other New Zealand, Japanese and Spanish institutions examined marine sediments to evaluate the behavior of the Wilkes subglacial basin during the warmer Pleistocene periods . at least two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels for periods of 2,500 years or more.

"With current global temperatures already one step ahead of those of the pre-industrial period, future ice loss seems inevitable if we do not reduce our carbon emissions," said Dr. David Wilson, research scientist at the University of Ottawa. University of Queensland.

The eastern Antarctic ice cap has been considered less sensitive to melt than the western Antarctic ice cap because its basin is well above sea level, but the Wilkes subglacial basin is lower. in a press release.

"The evidence that we have suggested that with the predicted warming of two degrees Celsius in Antarctica – if it is maintained for a few millennia – the leaf would begin to melt in those places," Welsh said.

Wilson told the Washington Post that the earth could see temperatures warm enough to begin the melting process in this century, but the study did not indicate the speed or slowness of this process.

"What we can certainly say is that during the [geological] The stadiums where temperatures were warm for a few millennia is where we see a separate signature in our archives, "Wilson told The Washington Post." We can not necessarily say that things did not happen quickly, but we can not solve that in our data. "

During one of the periods studied, about 125,000 years ago, sea level was 20 to 30 feet higher than now, reported the Washington Post.

Isabella Velicogna, a glaciologist at the University of California at Irvine, who did not participate in the study, told the Washington Post that she "contributes to the growing evidence that East Antarctica is not as stable as we thought. "

The Paris agreement aims to limit warming to a level well below two degrees above pre-industrial levels, but current efforts are not enough to achieve this goal, according to a report by the International Agency published in March.

Another study published this week offers a backup plan: walls of rocks and sand under water to prevent glaciers from slipping and collapsing and protecting them from warmer water from the ocean that speeds up melting.

The study, published Thursday in the Cryosphere, used models to evaluate the impact of various geoengineering projects on stopping the collapse of the Thwaites Glacier, in the US. West Antarctic.

"We imagine very simple structures, just heaps of gravel or sand on the bottom of the oceans," said The Guardian 's author and researcher and researcher at the Department of Geosciences. Princeton University, Michael Wolovick.

Wolovick said the designs were "in the order of magnitude of plausible human achievements".

They calculated that the smaller design, by constructing a series of columns or mounds using roughly the same amount of material needed to build the Dubai Palm Islands, would have a 30% chance of preventing the construction. collapse of the western Antarctic ice cap.

Building a complete wall, a more ambitious venture, would have a 70% chance of preventing 50% of the warmer waters from reaching the ice.