Predict the next NFL record: passing yards, touchdowns, rushing yards, bags

Just as Manning won the title of Favre and Brees dominated Manning, we know, however, that we are going to attend another ceremony for the next record holder in the pass distance. In a league where the efficiency of the passes continues to increase and the defensive quarters play effectively until early in the forties, no the recording is safe.

Let's review some of the league's most outstanding records and leaders in statistics to try to predict what the future might hold for these crowns. Some of the so-called detonators might well surprise you. And let's start with the most remarkable title of all, the record that Brees has just recorded.

Go to a recording: Work sites | Pass TD
Running the building sites | Court of reception | Bags

Work sites

Current record holder: Drew Brees, 72,103 yards (and over)

We must begin by determining where Brees will leave the record. History tells us that the quarterbacks of the Hall of Fame play well for a very long time before suddenly losing it and returning to the replacement level almost overnight. This was the case for Favre and Manning. Dan Marino fainted more gradually, but he still had a big crash in his last season. John Elway and Joe Montana dropped out as average passers before turning 40, although Elway probably left him in part because he had just won two consecutive Super Bowl wins.

Given that Brady is already over a year older than Brees, it's hard to see him survive long enough for the Purdue product to sneak to the top of the charts. The same goes for the 2004 promotion, which is in its 30s and is well behind Brees. Eli Manning (53,344 yards), Ben Roethlisberger (53,098) and Philip Rivers (52,050) are expected to last four or five seasons after Brees' departure to exceed his total.

Eli already seems to have finished his career and Roethlisberger has publicly flirted with retirement. Rivers – the guy the Chargers acquired to replace Brees 14 years ago – is the best candidate here and his chances are slim. Aaron Rodgers is 40,499 yards, but will be 35 in December and his injury history is too important to stay healthy and productive until mid-40s. Staying in perfect health is a prerequisite for breaking this record.

Matt Ryan is a better candidate, given that the Falcons quarterback is only 33 years old and already has 43,751 yards. He is about to finish with an average of 5,213 passing yards this season, a career-high, which would give him 47,009 yards. If we want to determine his chances of finishing more than 80,000 meters, we can use Bill James's Favorite Toy formula, invented by the legendary sabermétricien to try to project the chances that players will beat baseball records. In this case, the formula – which is explained in more detail here – suggests that Ryan has a 14.8% chance of breaking Brees' record by the end of his career.

The other realistic veteran candidate is Matthew Stafford, which ticks a lot of our boxes even though it does not really look like a Hall of Fame. Stafford will not be 31 years old until February. He plays in a pass-happy arrangement that has already allowed him to accumulate tons of yards. More importantly, after being injured in his first two seasons, he stayed on the pitch. The Detroit starter has not missed a match since 2010 and, although the Vikings seem intent on trying to break this series with every loss against Stafford, he has managed to survive.

If we project Stafford's performance in 2018 for the rest of the season, he'll be at 39,181 passing yards. It will not even make him half of his career, but Stafford still has a lot of time to lose. James's model projects, Stafford, will only play six more seasons, which is why his probabilities are 14.2%, essentially identical to Ryan's. If we build a more generous aging curve and suggest that the General's first pick in 2009 will play seven more seasons, his odds increase to 24.9%.

After Ryan and Stafford, the next group of passersby will have difficulties. Cam Newton and Russell Wilson did not throw the ball often enough to fight for this record. Andrew Luck was not healthy enough, since he missed 24 games from 2015 to 2017. Marcus Mariota combines both problems. Jameis Winston is expected to remain on the ground for several years and produce at its maximum level before asserting itself as a credible threat.

Long-term candidates

Wentz should also launch more challenges for this brand. Even before the injury of last season, the Eagles were asking Wentz to average just under 34 assists per game, and he was 11th in passing yards at 253.5. The Eagles were doing this because they were winning games and coming out of the room in the second half, and there's nothing wrong with evaluating Wentz, but that will make things difficult when it's over. wants to take the score. record.

The Eagles starter averages 298 passing yards per game in four starts in 2018, but failed to Jared Goff. The overall first pick of 2016 is averaging 321.3 yards per game and feels safe in Sean McVay's brilliance, but the Favorite Toy model – which uses the player's last three seasons for data – Of course, he does not like his 2016 season under Jeff Fisher. Throwing a projection for Goff while he averaged 155.6 passing yards per game in seven starts in a universe that does not seem to be logical does not seem logical.

If we want to even have a broad projection of Goff's chances, we must be inventive. Assume that Goff stays healthy and continues to reach an average of those 321.3 passing yards per game until the end of 2019. This allows him to reach 15,175 yards at the same time. end of his 25 year season. At this point, Goff has a 14.0% chance of breaking the pass record, which implies perfect health and MVP quality play over the next two seasons.

Doing the same thing for Wentz – giving up his rookie season and assuming that he will stay healthy while maintaining an average of 298 passing yards – only allows him to achieve 3.6% of the score. Brees. This is partly because Wentz is almost two years older than Goff. Brees and Goff were full-time starters as they began their 23-year season. Wentz spent his 23-year season in the state of North Dakota. Everything must be right to exceed 80,000 yards.

Who has the best chance of breaking it

Matt Ryan: 14.4%
Matthew Stafford: 14.2%

Passage of the affected

Current record holder: Peyton Manning (539)

This record should be broken by the end of 2019. The only questions to be answered are who gets there first and who ends up retiring. Brady has just become the third quarterback in league history to be among the first 500 touchdowns, in Week Five, and currently sits at 501, while Brees will join him on Sunday against the Ravens, then that he sits at 499.

Touchdowns are difficult to project. Let's be slightly more optimistic this time. If we use the percentage of each player's career hit and the average pass attempts of the last three seasons and we use it to project ourselves until the end of 2019, Brady finishes right in front of Brees. , with 554 touchdowns at Brees at … 553. Brees could very well come back in this scenario to try to score the touchdown mark, but since he has already won the distance title, let's give this one to Brady and are working on that total of 554 touchdowns. So who is the next?

Short term candidates

It does not look great for guys in their mid thirties. rivers has 357 touchdowns, and even with an unsustainable touchdown rate of 7.7% in 2018. (He has exceeded the 6% exactly one time in his career, while it was in 2008.) he maintained this rate and ended the year with 40 scores, the Favorite Toy model would suggest that Rivers only has 10.7% to reach 555 years before retiring. If we use his career hit rate, Rivers has only 33 touchdowns and then has a 1.7% chance of beating Brady.

Eli Manning (345) and Roethlisberger (341) did not even register as viable candidates. Rodgers (325) has the highest career hit rate of all active quarters, at 6.3%, thanks to the bulk of his past career without a half-defender, but injuries are the problem. If Rodgers had played 16 games per season since the beginning of 2008 with the same average attempts and touchdown percentage, he would have 367 touchdowns and 20.7 percent touchdowns. Instead, with the injuries taken into account, it is projected with only 5.2% of Brady rollover.

Our intermediate candidates are not doing as well here. Ryan discreetly manages a landing rate for 2018 (6.3%) relatively close to the figures of his MVP season in 2016 (7.1%), but that will not last. He should not have a chance. Stafford He has dominated the 32 touchdowns only once as a professional and is about to finish with 29, given his percentage of career touchdowns. Youth and health combine to give it a 4.2% chance of reaching 555 points. Wilson led the league scoring touchdowns (34) a year ago, but he did not throw the ball near the goal line enough to get close to 500 points, let alone 555. (That could be a statement controversial in some circles.)

Long-term candidates

Wentz had a 7.5% touchdown percentage, a top in the league, there is a season, which is not sustainable and a huge jump from the 2.6% mark 39, he hit as a rookie. After two matches in 2018, it is established at exactly 5.1%. He did not register on the Favorite Toy scale, thanks to the combination of his injury and rookie season. If he throws touchdowns on 7.5% of his passes, he will set the record in about 11 years.

Goff has a better strike, although Todd Gurley's touch problem may limit Goff's cap. Goff has managed to record a 6% touchdown percentage even under McVay up to now, a huge leap from his average of 2.4% as a rookie. Goff's actual numbers are not on the balance as he only started five touchdowns in 2016. Again, if we assume that his health and his level of attempts per game and his percentage of affected under McVay until the end of 2019, Goff will enter in 2020 with 95 touchdowns and a 10.7% chance to overtake Brady. Come back in a year and a few months.

Who has the best chance of breaking it

Aaron Rodgers: 5.2%
Matthew Stafford: 4.2%
Philip Rivers: 1.7 percent

Running the yards

Current record holder: Emmitt Smith (18,355 yards)

Cowboys fans can probably stay quiet for a while. Offenses around the NFL simultaneously tend to throw the ball on the ground and no longer use the back of the bell, which has limited the frequency of the huge racing seasons. From 1990 to 2009, there were 51 backyard occurrences that accumulated 1,500 yards per season, or about 2.5 per season. From 2010 to 2017, there have been nine in seven years and no turning back has been successful twice during this period. Smith has done it three times in five seasons and within 32 meters of the mark, five in five.

Short term candidates

Short is in the eye of the beholder, right? No veteran will threaten Smith. Frank Gore has 14,329 rushing yards, which leaves him more than 4,000 yards at age 35. John Riggins is the only player in history to have passed the 1,000 yard mark at age 35, and no one has done it after that. Gore should do it four times in a row. Adrian Peterson, 33, is expected to rack up 5,740 rushing yards to catch Smith, and is already in trouble in Washington.

What about Sean McCoy? The Bills do not seem particularly interested in the return of their star, and the former star of the Eagles, 30, may well try to break the record of Smith. McCoy has already missed a game this season, but is ready to finish 2018 with 10,869 rushing yards. The favorite toy is upbeat and gives McCoy another six seasons and a 28.5% throw to rack up the yards he needs, but I'm skeptical. McCoy would need to find another 7,487 yards on the ground to score the goal. Since the beginning of his season, the club has more than 4,530 rushing yards. It would be absolutely beautiful if Shady challenged Smith's total.

Long-term candidates

Now, if he stays healthy and averages 100 yards rushing per game, Bell will start his season with 27 years at 6,336 yards. If we assume that he has nine years left in the league, he will need on average more than 1335 rushing yards per season without getting hurt at the top of the Smith brand. It will not happen.

I see two viable candidates in the long run even though we are still at the beginning of their careers to be confident in one or the other. Todd Gurley In 2016, Fisher had a tough season under Fisher's eyes, but the Rams star averaged 85 yards rushing or more per game in each of his other three campaigns. He is about to finish the season with 1,661 rushing yards, bringing his career total to 4,957 yards in his 24-year campaign. His favorite project is to play nine more seasons in the NFL, which is not unreasonable, and assumes Gurley holds a record 44.9% to break Smith's record.

If Zeke stays on pace, the Cowboys will finish the season with 1,563 rushing yards and a total of 4,177 yards over three years. Favorite Toy is inspired and gives Elliott a 42.5% advantage over Smith's total, but again, it relies on a generous and unsupported assumption about rider aging curves. It's too early to make projections for bands like Saquon Barkley and Alvin Kamara.

I will insert my two cents here and halve the projections of Favorite Toy. The workloads of Elliott and Gurley could be a taste of things to come, but the league has also evolved this way for a reason. The work horse backs were not able to withstand a huge load for a very long time. I am convinced that Elliott and Gurley have a chance, but they are far from the 50 to 50 cases suggested by Favorite Toy.

Who has the best chance of breaking it

Todd Gurley: 22.5%
Ezekiel Elliott: 21.3 percent

Court of reception

Current record holder: Jerry Rice (22,895 yards receiving)

This one will take some time at the top. To put it in context, Terrell Owens has the second highest yardage per receiving and is 15,934 yards. Larry Fitzgerald, who has the highest number of yards among all passes, is at 15,760. After him, it's Brandon Marshall at 12,351 yards, more than 10,000 yards behind Rice. James has already said that you could split Rickey Henderson in half and create two Hall of Famers. The scary thing is that you could do the same thing with Rice and end up with Michael Irvin and Calvin Johnson, who combined to beat Rice with just 628 yards at the front desk.

Short term candidates

Antonio Brown has had an incredible six-year run, averaging more than 100 yards per game since the beginning of 2013. He is ready to finish 2018 with 11,184 total yards. To put Rice in context, Brown would need to keep pace with 100 yards per game for another eight seasons to reach Rice's total. Her favorite toy gives her a 20.1% chance of passing Rice. Brown will need a smooth transition from Roethlisberger to the next Pittsburgh quarterback (or another team) to get there.

Another player who had the chance to spend his entire career with a quarter is Julio Joneswho, inexplicably, can not find the end zone but already has 707 yards in less than six games this season. Jones is online with 1,885 receiving yards (and zero touchdowns) in 2018, which would give him 10,939 yards before turning 30. This would be the best mark in league history for a player since his 29-year season.

Rice, of course, has extended her career to such an extent that no other big gap has come close. He racked up 6,440 yards at the front desk after starting his 36-year season. Charlie Joiner is in second place in the same category at 3,125 yards, and no one else was able to pass the TO at 1,812 yards. Jones has already broken his foot twice, which does not bode well for his chances of playing in his forties, but he left for what might be the best start in the history of the league. Favorite Toy doubles Brown's rating and gives Jones a 40.2% advantage to set the record, which sounds optimistic even for someone as talented as the Falcons star.

The model is less impressed A green J., who is a year older than Jones and has slowed significantly between 2016 and 2017, when he racked up a total of 2,042 yards while missing six games. Green's numbers are back this season now that he's in good health and that he's back on an offensive line, but Favorite Toy gives him only a 2.9% chance of overtaking Rice.

Long-term candidates

Then there is the flash round of 2014 draft misses: Odell Beckham Jr., Mike Evans Evans, Brandin Cooks and Jarvis Landry. If we expect each doubled to maintain its current rate throughout the remainder of 2018, then pass the numbers in Favorite Toy, LSU teammates fail to rank in the standings. Beckham is missing because he has only accumulated 303 yards in his 2017 injury-ridden campaign. Landry has always been productive, but he has not had a monster season and is currently scoring 1,044 yards this season.

Who has the best chance of breaking it

Julio Jones: 40.2%
From Andre Hopkins: 28.2%
Antonio Brown: 20.1 percent
Mike Evans: 17.3 percent
Cooks brandin: 9.3%
ONE J. Green: 2.9%

Bags

Current record holder: Bruce Smith (200 bags)

Let's finish with a nice round number. Smith has accumulated 200 sacks over his 19-year career with the Bills and Washington and has added 14.5 playoff sacks for good measure. The Hall of Fame reached its peak in 1990 with a campaign of 19 sacks, in the middle of a five-year period during which 7.2% of shifts were eliminated. In the past five seasons, this percentage has fallen to 6.1%. Can anyone overcome the drop rate of the bag to reach 201?

Short term candidates

Julius Peppers and Terrell Suggs will not reach 201, unfortunately. The two veterans who have a reasonable shot at 200 are J.J. Watt and Von Millerbut their work is done for them.

It is almost impossible to decompose Watt via Favorite Toy because he has practically spent the last two years out of the game because of numerous injuries. He leads the NFL with seven sacks in six games this season, scoring 19 points. Watt would be the first player in the history of the league to do this three times in a career.

If he stays on that pace, Watt will finish his 29 year season with 95 sacks. Favorite Toy shrugs, estimates 10 sacks of Watt over the next 6.5 seasons and gives her a 11.3% chance of reaching 201 sacks. We all know what a healthy watt can do. It therefore seems more important to know if the former Wisconsin star can stay healthy than to know if he can play at a high level.

Miller, by contrast, was more consistent. Outside of 2013, while he was limited to nine games by a suspension and a torn LCA, he missed only one match as a professional. He has accumulated at least 10 bags in each of his seasons and is ready to finish with 15 sacks of this campaign. It is also true that he only knew one season from another world, while he had accumulated 18.5 bags in 2012.

Plug in 15 bags for 2018 and Miller is at 98.5 bags during his 29-year campaign. Favorite Toy looks favorably on this consistency and suggests that Miller would have a 32.2% chance of toppling Smith to the top of the bag rankings.

Long-term candidates

Sixteen bags would take Mack to just 56.5 stakes in his career, in part because he will not be 28 years old until February. Favorite Toy also likes its regularity and if Mack beats on average one sack per game in 2018, James' model gives him a 17.5% chance to break Smith's mark.

Donald est encore jeune, mais son absence d'une saison dominante nuit à ses chances de battre des records de sacs. Onze sacs en 2018 le feraient à seulement 50, et bien que ce soit une marque impressionnante, il aurait besoin d'en accumuler 45 pour atteindre 2019 et 2020 avant d'atteindre 29 ans. fiche de sacs. Donald devra se contenter d'être le meilleur joueur de la meilleure équipe de football. Never mind.

Qui a la meilleure chance de le casser

Von Miller: 32,4%
Khalil Mack: 17,5 pour cent
J.J. Watt: 11,3 pour cent
Aaron Donald: 4.6%