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President Trump says the North Korean nuclear threat has dissipated since he signed a brief and vague joint statement with the country's leader, Kim Jong Un, on June 12.
This statement has become a key part of Trump's repertoire. The president has given assurances about North Korea in almost all of his public remarks. On June 15, he went so far as to say that he had "solved" the problem
but the experts say that Trump takes it in advance and exaggerates or blurs the sensitive details. The agreement with Kim only deals with specific details, and a lot of things are going on in the ongoing international negotiations. The threat, for the moment, is still imminent.
In his best-selling 1987, "The Art of Deal," Trump described how he would use "truthful hyperbole" as a "highly effective form of promotion" in his business. But the stakes are much higher in the area of nuclear weapons. We have summarized many of his claims about North Korea's denuclearization agreement and recent developments.
"The world has taken a big step back from the potential nuclear disaster! No more rocket launches, nuclear tests or research!" ( Tweet June 12)
"No more nuclear tests or rockets everywhere, have blown up launch sites." ( Tweet June 17)
"They've already blown up one of their great In fact, it was actually four of their major test sites.They get rid of their engine site, the engines – these are engines.They call them "engines" for the engines. Ballistic Missiles: It's Okay. " (June 21, Council of Ministers)
" Sites were destroyed, where they were tested. " (Roundtable in Las Vegas, June 23)
] "They" (South Carolina Rally, June 23)
North Korea announced on May 24 the demolition of the nuclear test site from Punggye-ri, an underground facility where he conducted six nuclear bomb tests from October 2006 to September 2017.
The apparent demolition occurred before Trump and Kim signed their agreement on June 12. When the North Korean authorities announced their intention to cease nuclear testing on April 20, the reason given was that the country had "successfully achieved the nuclear weapons designs that it sought during the course of six years." "In other words, North Korea said that it had decided to stop testing the nuclear bombs once it would have figured out how to build the one." What she wanted. "Apparent demolition was widely regarded as a diplomatic gesture towards Washington, although it is unclear whether the television explosions marked a significant change in the North's nuclear capabilities. ", Reports the Washington Post's Anna Fifield
The North Koreans did not allow international inspectors to observe the demolition, but they invited journalists from five countries to see it from afar. A British journalist, Tom Cheshire of Sky News, said: "There was a huge explosion, you could smell it, the dust came to you, the heat came to you, it was extremely noisy. blew an observation booth made of wood to complete smithereens. "
The extent of damage to the interior of the sprawling Punggye-ri facility is unknown, there is so a possibility that the test site could be reused. Jeffrey Lewis, director of the non-proliferation program of East Asia at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies, said North Korea had blown up the entrances to three tunnels leading to the site test. But it may be possible to rehabilitate them, he said, just as it is possible to dig new tunnels.
"It was not nothing, it was kind," Lewis said. But he added: "They have never stopped making nuclear weapons; According to the 38 North, a website with expert analysis on North Korea led by the Stimson Center, the building of the two-storey headquarters and many support camps on the Punggye-ri site "seem intact" after the demolition.
"While the tunnel gates were clearly closed, the extent of the damage suffered by the Tunnels in the interior are unverifiable, "North said after analyzing satellite imagery.The map of information presented by North Koreans specified that the explosives would be placed at more or more intervals. less deep in the tunnels, and videos it seems that there were secondary explosions beyond the gates about 15 seconds after the initial destruction.But the extent of this internal damage remains unclear and would certainly be a import activity ante for any subsequent site visits by experts, if permitted. "
In previous negotiations with North Korea, the George W. Bush administration asked" Visual "that would show public progress toward denuclearization, said Lewis." North Korea bombed a tower of A nuclear reactor serving a different nuclear research site in Yongbyon When the negotiations failed, North Korea built a pumping station connecting the Yongbyon reactor to a river, said Lewis. has somehow blinded "the administration of President Barack Obama and led to" complacency, "he added.
The lesson is that appearances can be misleading.
" North Koreans have took a step obvious but easily reversible. Lewis said:
Although it is noteworthy that North Korea has stopped testing nuclear weapons completely, the country has not indicated that it is arresting any other types of tests. Lewis says, like subcritical or hydronuclear tests.
"Now we are in a very uncertain kind of territory because we do not know how North Korea's diagnoses are sophisticated, so we do not know what they could learn from subcritical or hydronuclear tests He said. "We are learning a lot from the subcritical tests" in the United States, he adds.
Although the Punggye-ri test site appears to have been demolished, Installation of Yongbyon remains North Korea's nuclear research site The Wall Street Journal reported on June 27 that "North Korea is modernizing its nuclear research center at a rapid pace", indicating an analysis of the nuclear power plant. Satellite imagery by 38 North showing evidence of new construction, including around an experimental light water reactor (ELWR). 19659028] "The infrastructure needed for reactor operations at ELWR appears external complete, but there is no visible evidence to suggest that the operations have begun, "discovered the north of the 38.
NBC News reported on June 29. The officials "believe that North Korea has increased its production of fuel for nuclear weapons in several secret sites in recent months – and that Kim Jong Un might try to hide these facilities while he seeks more concessions in the Nuclear talks with the Trump. Post administration reported on June 30 that the Defense Intelligence Agency "has concluded that North Korean officials are investigating ways to deceive Washington on the number of nuclear warheads and missiles, as well as as the type and number of facilities they possess, believing that the United States is not aware of all of their activities. "
" The only known uranium enrichment facility Korea is in Yongbyon, 60 miles north of Pyongyang. It is estimated that this site has produced fissile material up to two dozen warheads, "The Post reported." Meanwhile, North Koreans have also operated a secret enrichment site. Underground uranium known as Kangson, which was first reported in May by the Washington Post. This site is considered by most officials as having twice the enrichment capacity of Yongbyon. The US intelligence services became acquainted with the nuclear facility in 2010. "
The evidence clearly indicates that North Korean nuclear research has not stopped, contrary to Trump's claim on June 12 The president said on June 21 that "Assuming that Punggye-ri is permanently shut down, it is a satellite imagery shows that the North Koreans have destroyed a missile test bench. north of Kusong City, according to 38 North. "
But" there has been no modification or similar activity to the dismantling of any of the six launching and testing facilities. of known engines and two ejection test benches, "reports June 38.
It should be noted that the deactivation of a launch site does not necessarily hinder the missile capability of North Korea: North Korea uses road mobile launchers She's testing ballistic missiles, according to the diplomat, who "are designed to allow launch from various locations."
"There is no longer any nuclear threat from North Korea." ( Tweet June 13)
"And the great thing is that it will be a total denuclearization, which is already beginning to take place." (Council of Ministers, June 21) [19659036] "I have solved this problem. Now we get the memorial and everything, but this problem is largely solved, and part of the reason is that we signed, number one, a very good document. (Notes to Journalists, June 15)
Trump and Kim's denuclearization agreement is sketchy, and its success will depend on the outcome of difficult negotiations It is too early to say that Trump "resolved" the problem posed by North Korean nuclear weapons
Testifying before a Senate subcommittee on June 27, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that North Korea remains a threat. "I am confident that he had the intention of" reducing the threat, "said Pompeo. "The Ministry of Defense, meanwhile, spends billions of dollars to prepare to counter a North Korean nuclear threat, as reported by Paul Sonne of the Washington Post." Very good document, "he said. it signed, but its wording is devoid of details in comparison to previous agreements negotiated by the United States, which North Korea subsequently broke.Joint statement of 12 June states that "President Kim Jong Un reaffirmed his firm commitment and unyielding to complete the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula "and that North Korea" pledges to work towards a complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. "
reported, the practical meaning of these sentences does not make any sense. is not defined, and "to" is rather weak In the past, North Korea considered "denuclearization" to mean that the United States withdrew the nuclear umbrella that it provides Japan and Korea with. South, there is no indication that its definition has changed. There is no specific commitment to end nuclear testing, search or missile launches (although missile tests have ceased).
Trump's national security advisor, former UN ambassador John Bolton, was critical. In his memoirs, "Surrender is not an option," Bolton blamed a 2005 deal with North Korea, released Feb. 13, 2007, for being "radically incomplete," even though it's not an option. 39 it included a detailed road map for "eventual abandonment" of the Yongbyon nuclear facility. He indicated that he was not dealing with the existing stockpile of North Korea's nuclear weapons, that it contained "no verification provisions" and that it did not address the issue of abducted by Japanese and South Koreans. None of these elements are in the statement that Trump signed with such fanfare.
"We receive our – the remains of our great heroes … They have more than 200 already." (19659009) (Las Vegas Roundtable, June 23)
North Korean officials have long reported that They had the remains of US soldiers in the Korean War, according to the Department of Defense, but repatriation efforts have stagnated over the past decade, and North Korea has returned remains as recently as 1994.
At least in theory this impasse is nearing its end, and Trump and Kim, in their statement of 12 June, pledged to "recover the remains of the POW / MIA, including the immediate repatriation of those already identified."
Have the remains ever returned, as the President suggests, this is what we have known since:
- June 20: Colonel Chad Carroll, spokesman for US forces in Korea, told the Post: "The United Nations Command in Korea the repatriation of the remains of the United States. Other senior officials told the Post that the transfer "could take place in the coming days".
- June 23: Trump announced that 200 remains had been returned. On the same day, South Korean media reported that 30 US military vehicles, carrying 215 coffins, were to travel to North Korea within 24 hours. Carroll denied this report. The Associated Press reported that "100" Temporary Transit Cases "sent to the Border Security Zone at the border were part of the preparations to" receive and transport the remains in a dignified manner when we receive the ". appeal, "citing Carroll. Notice the last part of his quote
- June 27: Pompeo told the Senate Subcommittee that he was "optimistic" that "some remain [would be returned] in a not so distant future". "We still have physically received" no remains.
So, Trump says 200 leftover veterans were returned, and four days later, under oath, his secretary of state contradicted him. A Pentagon spokesman, Lt. Col. David Eastburn, reiterated what Carroll said. "The United Nations Command is planning the repatriation of the remains of the US military," Eastburn told The Fact Checker, but declined to say when that would happen.
The State Department sent us back to the White House for more details, but we received no response.
"We have thousands of people who have asked for this, thousands and thousands of people.Many people have asked me when I was in campaign and I told them," Wait a minute . I do not have any relationship. But they said, "When you can, president, we would like our son to be brought home. You know, the remains. " (Fox News interview, June 12)»
"And a lot – I guess, for the most part, it's children and grandchildren, they want to get the remains from their fathers and grandfathers. (19659059) (Las Vegas Roundtable, June 23)
The Defense Department accounting agency of the Ministry of Defense reports that 7,699 military personnel were missing during the Korean War, with 5,300 from among them "lost in North Korea."
Trump's claim that "thousands and thousands" of people have asked him to repatriate the remains of their loved ones evolved: first it is the parents who ask, then they become children or grandchildren. After a mathematical work, The Post 's Philip Bump determined that the president' s claim on parents was conceivable but unlikely: "There was a woman born in 1914 who had a child in 1934 who was enlisted in the US. army, sent to Korea and tragically one of the 563 missing persons in the final months of the conflict.This theoretical woman, now over 100 years old, may have approached Trump during the campaign and asked her to bring back her home sons. "
However, as Bump points out, nearly 82,000 Americans were over the age of 100. 2016, Trump's claim that thousands of Korean war veterans' parents lost their The children or grandchildren making this request from Trump seem much more likely.The children of the soldiers who disappeared during the Korean War would have been in their hands. In the first half of the 1960s at the time of the 2016 elections.
Trump held at least 350 rallies in his political career, according to a list. Assuming that "thousands and thousands" means at least 2,000, an average of 5.7 people per rally should make this specific request from the president. It's unclear from Trump's remarks that he heard these requests personally or occasionally, and it's also hard to know how often Trump lingers at his rallies for talk to the participants.
We asked the White House for evidence
The Pinocchio Test
These statements by Trump are all similar in that there is a possible core of truth in each of them. they, but there are several layers of misinformation or puffery. The president repeats these claims almost daily, on Twitter and in almost all public appearances, and his listeners could easily believe that North Korea no longer poses a nuclear threat or that it is rushing quickly to disarm.
Trump clearly has high hopes for North Korea, and his administration's efforts could pay dividends in the future. But for now, the president counts his hens before they hatch and his claims deserve Three Pinocchios
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