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The Miami Dolphins and Green Bay Packers start their Sunday match at Lambeau Field in similar situations: both teams have lost three of their last five games and are playing in the playoffs.
The Packers are on a rather unknown territory as a franchise. Green Bay is currently below the .500 mark after finishing the previous year with its first lost record (7-9) since 2008, while probably having the most talented quarterback in history. the NFL. I said the most talented, not the best ever. There is a difference.
Whether Aaron Rodgers may or may not rally the Pack to another place in the playoffs, as he had done after the slow start of the team in 2016, remains to be seen, but deep changes in the staff of the Coaches, and perhaps even the front-office, now seem inevitable after the final whistle blows on the 2018 season.
The 3 to 0 Dolphins seemed to claim to be the first to claim the throne of AFC East. These aspirations were defeated by the Patriots in Foxboro, 38-7 on week 4. The Fish have struggled to swim since, winning only two games since losing to the Pats, compounded by the loss of quarterback Ryan Tannehill. Despite their recent difficulties, Miami is still looking for a place for the playoffs with a semi-friendly schedule comprising only two teams over .500 (Patriots, Vikings) and two games against the Bills in December.
Miami to Green Bay
Start: Sunday, November 11 at 16:25 ET
TV: CBS
Spread: Green Bay -9.5
Three things to look at
1. Osweiler under the center
When Ryan Tannehill was injured in the right shoulder capsule against Cincinnati, Brock Osweiler found a new life in the NFL. After two separate stops in Denver, a disastrous $ 72 million budget in Houston and an exchange in Cleveland, Osweiler found a backup deal and a one-year contract in Miami last March. Given Tannehill's recent history of injury, it was not unlikely that his succession would take time.
Now, the Dolphins are out of the playoffs, with an offense that marks only 31% of his training and a quarter who has never proven that he could lead an NFL offense: he achieves less than 60% of his career passes. and has almost as many steals (30) as touchdowns (37) in 47 games.
In his first two starts in replacement of Tannehill, Osweiler looked like a quarter that the Broncos thought they had when they named it as the future of the franchise in 2012. Osweiler threw five touchdowns, completing 66 percent of his passes, posted a quarterback. ranking and paved the way for a surprise win against the Bears in overtime.
But despite having beaten the Jets 13 to 6 last week, the Miami offense has declined sharply in the last two weeks, posting an average of only 18 points (20.8 for the entire season). And in those two games, Osweiler looked like the quarterback that Houston could not wait to be eliminated in 2017, finishing less than 60% of his passes with a rating of 71, 8, an interception and no touchdown.
To keep their hopes of playing in the playoffs against the Packers offensive defense, the Dolphins desperately need to bounce back after their worst offensive performance of the season. Against the Jets, the Dolphins racked up a measly 168 yards (34 in the second half), scored 3 of 16 goals in the third attempt and failed to score a touchdown for the first time this season. The fix starts with Osweiler. He does not have to be perfect, but he needs to at least find a way to convert the third tries to extend the training and stop Rodgers from playing.
2. Search for points
The offensive problems of the Dolphins go far beyond playing with a companion quarterback. In fact, Miami struggled to accumulate points over the three seasons of Adam Gase at the helm, averaging 20.3 points per game since his arrival. This season, Miami ranks 24th in points per game, averaging just 20.8 points per game – a slight increase from last season's rank of 17.6 at 25th. But the problems are not limited to scoring points. The Dolphins are one of the worst teams to move the chains, ranking 20th in yards per game (5.6), 27th in the third downhill rate (34%), 28th in play time. possession (28:26) and 29th of the first attempt. per match (16).
The main problem of the Miami offensive is health. So far this season, Miami has sent nine different players to the end-of-season pool, five of which are on the offensive side of the ball, including two offensive linemen. Line O, already thin, could do without three other plays this Sunday with the center, Ted Larsen, goalkeeper Laremy Tunsil and tackle Ja'Wuan James, all doubtful. If the Dolphins front line fails to protect Osweiler or clear tracks for the already-fast attack, it could be another offensive drought on Sunday.
3. Aaron Rodgers
Do not get me wrong, the six Pro Bowler players, twice All-Pro and two MVPs are the main reason why the Packers are even within earshot of a playoff spot. Nevertheless, even if 15 touchdowns and interception of Aaron Rodgers look great on paper, it is also true that he did not respect his usual excellent standards.
Rodgers is a 64% career passer, but he has only two games this season to beat this mark. His score of 60% is the lowest of his career and currently ranks 28th in the league. Rodgers' quarterback rating is currently at 98.9, his lowest level since a full season since 2015 and only the second time in his career as a starter that this number is less than 100.
So what's the problem? The below-normal figures for Rodgers could be reminiscent of the impressive win of Week 1 against the Bears on Sunday night, when Rodgers was sidelined by a MCL sprain, then returned and lead the Packers to a fourth-place victory. quarter. Since then, Rodgers has been slower, almost shy, outside the pocket where he is normally thriving, and he has failed to launch windows in which he would normally thread the ball.
So, how are the Packers relieving their troubled quarterbacks? This answer is easy: throw the ball. The Packers currently ranks 29th in terms of the number of successful passes, with 159 more pass attempts (335) than the rush attempts (176) this year. Offensive coordinator Joe Philbin has the opportunity to lighten Rodgers' burden against his former team by putting a heavy workload on defensemen Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams, especially Jones, who has an impressive average of 6 yards per game. race. With Jones and Williams leading the charge against the Dolphins defense, fifth worst in number of yards per ball (4.8) and yards per game (136.1), Rodgers should be able to be effective without having to take too much deep blows against a Miami high school. leads the league interceptions.
Final analysis
This game will boil down to the paddling offense that can straighten the ship because both units are 
have trouble finding answers. This is where the Packers have the biggest advantage, with Rodgers. With their three wins (and one tie) at the edge of Lambeau Field, the Packers should be able to handle their affairs against the Dolphins led by Osweiler.
Prediction: Packers 24, Dolphins 18
– Written by Jake Rose, part of the Athlon Sports contributor network. Follow him on Twitter @ JakeRose24.
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