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Man-made climate change alone does not explain the dramatic loss of pack ice in the Arctic. According to a new analysis by scientists at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, natural climate variability has accelerated the loss of sea ice in the Arctic in recent decades.
Researchers used a variety of climate models and an analytical method called "fingerprinting" to determine the factors that best explain the changes in the Arctic sea ice.
The new analysis – detailed this week in the journal Nature Geoscience – suggests that natural climate fluctuations, including those of El Niños and La Niñas, account for 40 to 50 percent of Arctic sea ice losses.
"Internal variability can improve or mitigate climate change due to greenhouse gas emissions. In this case, the internal variability has tended to increase the loss of sea ice in the Arctic, "said Stephen Po-Chedley, climate specialist at LLNL, in a press release.
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Most climate models predict lower sea ice loss than in recent years. The latest analysis suggests that natural atmospheric trends help explain accelerated melting.
"It's important to note that individual climbs show great changes in sea ice that are comparable to observed changes in sea ice," said Po-Chedley. "In these simulations, as in the real world, the loss of sea ice in the Arctic has been accentuated by the natural variability of the climate. When we take into account the natural variability, the loss of sea ice in the Arctic is quite similar from one model to the other and from an observation to the 39; another. "
Over the last decade, the maximum and minimum limits of Arctic sea ice have consistently set new records. Recent research suggests that these losses result from both global warming and natural climate variability.
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But natural atmospheric patterns can also be influenced by greenhouse gas emissions. Previous research has shown that increased marine heat waves caused by climate change may encourage extended El Niño patterns.
"Climate change is affecting the traditional dynamics of El Niño and La Niña events and their impacts," said Wet Secretary General Petteri Taalas in a statement earlier this year.
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