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The very important annual event has arrived and the off season can now begin in earnest: Seattle Mariners General Manager Jerry Dipoto has finalized a deal with the Tampa Bay Rays.
The Rays send center Mallex Smith to the Mariners in exchange for center Guillermo Heredia and catcher Mike Zunino. Each club has recruited a minor league player: league player Jake Fraley travels to Seattle and left-handed pitcher Michael Plassmeyer to Tampa, although there is no particularly remarkable prospect. If Smith in Seattle seems familiar, it's happened even briefly. Dipoto acquired Smith for two hours in January 2017, when he took over from the Atlanta Braves in exchange for Luiz Gohara. Almost immediately, he returned the player to Tampa Bay for Drew Smyly. This time, however, it seems that the center player is here to stay. So what does it mean?
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For Seattle, this seems to be the beginning of the redesign of the lineup announced earlier this week. But, as such, it should be quite encouraging for all fans who were worried about a possible demolition. It does not look as much like a reconstruction as a simple retooling. In the outfield, this gives the club a clear improvement in Smith, whose defense is much better (14 defensive innings kept above average in the last three years) compared to -1 for Heredia. Much of this skill comes from its speed, which also makes it valuable on the basics. With 40 bases stolen in 2018, he placed second in the American League, on a sprint average speed which places him in the 98th percentile of the MLB.
The Smith-Heredia comparison becomes more interesting when it comes to measuring the two fields outside the plate. Heredia has been consistent throughout the two full league play seasons. He made a lot of contact (85.6% of his swings), without a lot of power, which left him as a hitter well below average, career 83 OPS +. Smith, meanwhile, has taken a big step forward this year. During his first two seasons in the major leagues, his offensive production had gone well around Heredia: 85 OPS +. By 2018, his first full season at the major league level, he looked better in every respect. He reduced his battles, made more difficult contact and learned to hit a curve. The result was a 115 OPS + – the next question, though, is whether it is sustainable or not. His real talent at the plate is probably somewhere in the middle, but anyway, his defensive ability is more than enough to make him the strongest player here. And on the front of the contracts, Smith and Heredia each have four years of team control, with almost the same time of service (literally, Smith appeared in 294 games against 293 for Heredia).
But the exchange of central player is of course only one piece of the puzzle. As the season approached, Tampa Bay seemed to be able to jump into the catcher. Next year's coach should be Michael Perez, a rookie who has long lost his bright future. Zunino provides a clear improvement. It's a player who would have been easy to fire, say, ten years ago – a receiver who strikes in over a third of his games and has struggled to hit .200. Now, of course, there is enough information to offer a different reading of its value. Zunino is a competent defender, and he is a particularly strong pitch factor. And at the plate, he is much more valuable than his career average of 0.207 suggests. With 20 homers in three seasons over the last five seasons, he has become a hitter far above average. After particularly strong performances in 2016 and 2017, he beat the bat in 2018; even then, he was still pretty much an average hitter for a catcher. Zunino marked a clear improvement in the receiver for the Rays and, if there is more movement for the Mariners, its loss will lead to a significant deterioration of their position. Their internal replacement is probably David Freitas, who has surpassed his rookie limits last season at age 29 – which tells you everything you need to know to know what to expect from him.
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Rays and sailors are in difficult divisions. Everyone is behind two separate teams that have won 97 games or more in 2018, putting them in a difficult situation. they are To close to serious conflicts, but not close enough to be sure. But they go here with different strategies to address their different constraints. The Mariners, with their heavy wage obligations on the line, seem to be trying to get rid of part of their workforce without getting worse. The Rays, without any demonstrated interest for significant wage commitments to anyone, seem to be trying to improve without costing much. This deal is not likely to tip the needle too dramatically for one or the other club – a better center player for Seattle, at the expense of a better receiver for Tampa Bay – but it seems to fit both of these strategies, and this could offer a clue as to what their respective winters might look like.
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