Repeat Democrat victory in the Oregon governor's race seems less sure

Andrew Selsky, Associated Press

Update

10:23 AM PST, Sunday 4 November 2018

SALEM, Ore. (AP) – For decades, a Democrat who becomes Governor of Oregon seems as certain as the arrival of the rains in this time of year.

Democrats have occupied the governor's residence since 1987, which means that more than a generation of Oregon has never lived under a Republican governor in this state of the Pacific Northwest.

But this election, another victory of a democrat seemed less certain. Governor Kate Brown faces a challenge from Republican Knute Buehler, a state lawmaker who describes herself as moderate and who woosts party loyalists, gentle right-wing democrats and unaffiliated voters.

The political report Cook, a non-partisan organization that follows the political races, has called the elections to the governorship of Oregon of "netting". Polls show that Buehler is far behind Brown, recalling the 2010 elections, where Democrat John Kitzhaber had jumped back with less than 2% of the vote.

Jeanne Atkins, chair of the Democratic Party of Oregon, said she was not betting much on these polls.

"I am actively trying not to pay too much attention to all the back and strength around the poll," Atkins said.

In the legislature, Buehler represents the city of Bend, which has more registered Democrats than Republicans, but where he nevertheless managed to be twice elected to the House of Representatives of Oregon. He hopes to replicate this victory Tuesday in a state with 966 397 Democrats, 703 825 Republicans and 874 822 non-affiliated voters.

"I know how to win a group of bipartisan supporters," said Buehler.

Notably, he did not want President Donald Trump to support him, saying he wanted to stay away from "conflicting national issues".

But the country's economic acceleration, fueled by deficit-financed tax cuts, is attracting voters such as David Siefarth, of Salem, Oregon, to Buehler.

"I was not a supporter of Donald Trump until he was elected, so I did not vote for him," Siefarth said as he walked through downtown Salem. "But since he's in power, I think the Conservatives are doing things that are moving the country in the right direction."

Siefarth voted for Buehler, believing that he could do more to tackle problems such as homelessness.

"I think it's at least time to give the Republican Party in Oregon an opportunity to see what it can do," Siefarth said.

While Oregon was facing an unfunded debt of $ 22 million in its retirement system, Mr. Buehler said he would be asking for cuts to the pension plan and employee health benefits local governments and local governments.

The online campaign ads for Brown are attacking Buehler on this point, featuring public service employees such as teachers and firefighters, claiming that Buehler would cut their retirement pay, making it more difficult recruitment and retention of qualified persons.

Many more voters decide who will be the governor this time.

Because of Oregon's "motor driver" program, in which people who get or renew their driver's license are automatically registered to vote, the number of registrations has increased by 24%, from 2,068,798 in 2010 to 2,731,048 in 2018. People are not obliged to declare their party to the DMV, which has increased the number of unaffiliated voters. It is these unaffiliated voters who could be the decisive factor in the race.

Early voter turnout was record, even though the percentage of those who voted early was about equal to the percentage observed in the last mid-term elections because of population growth and the increase in voter turnout. number of registrations.

Brown said she was confident that a significant turnout of the Democrats – and that Patrick Starnes, an independent party candidate, is giving up and supporting it last week – will result in a win.

"I am excited about the level of enthusiasm on the ground," Brown said.

She rejects the characterization of Buehler.

"His antecedents are not those of a moderate Republican," said Mr. Brown, pointing out that he opposed legislation that extended Medicaid coverage to children illegally in the United States. United and that it supported the repeal of the law of the sanctuary of Oregon.

Buehler thinks that enough voters are unhappy with Oregon 's poor track record in education – one of the last in the country in terms of graduation rates – and pension debt. that he will wear on Tuesday.

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Gillian Flaccus, Associated Press Editor in Portland, Oregon, contributed to this report.

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Follow Andrew Selsky on Twitter at https://twitter.com/andrewselsky