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If the 2018 elections were held tomorrow, Democrats would easily win. Brett Kavanaugh's fight for confirmation aggravates things for the GOP. But the biggest problem that Republicans face is not Kavanaugh, nor their unpopular stance on key issues; it's President Trump. These are some of the key findings of a recent Pew Research Center survey.
Among registered voters, Democrats receive a 10-point advance (52-42) on the generic ballot for the House of Representatives. This is bad news for Republicans, as a 10-point margin on Election Day would give Democrats control of the House with room for maneuver.
Adding to the bad news, Democrats continue to have an advantage over voter motivation. Sixty-seven percent of Democratic supporters – most of recent history – say they are more enthusiastic than usual to vote. At this point in 2010, 42% of Democrats had the same feeling. in 2014, only 36%.
In addition, the dynamics of this electoral cycle are different. Between June and September of this year, voters' general enthusiasm increased by 10 percentage points. Between June and September 2014, however, he did not move. He did not do it either in 2010.
Evidence suggests that this gain has been stimulated by the growing interest of Democrats. Last June, for example, equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans said they were following the election news closely. Now the Democrats have taken a 6-point lead in this measure of voter attention.
The Supreme Court has taken over the concerns of voters, ignoring health care and the economy. Republicans, especially social conservatives, care more than Democrats about court appointments. Now, for the first time, I remember, it was reversed. A remarkable 81% of Democrats say that court appointments will be "very important" for their vote, compared to 72% of Republicans. On the other hand, during the 2016 presidential campaign, only 62% of Democrats considered the Supreme Court to be very important.
Despite Tip O'Neill's famous maxim that all policies are local, the 2018 elections have been nationalized around the figure of Donald Trump and the question of party control by Congress. Only 37 percent of registered voters – the lowest level ever registered – say the president do not to be a factor in their vote. Of the 60% who say it counts, 37% will vote against President Trump, compared to only 23% to support him.
As another sign of a nationalized election, 72 percent of voters – the highest level in at least two decades – say the party controlling Congress will be a factor in their votes. Seventy-seven percent of Democrats say that party control is important, as do seventy-three percent of Republicans, who have benefited from the mid-term elections of 2010 and 2014. The last time in 2006, an election that allowed them to regain control of the house.
There is no doubt that President Trump will campaign over the next six weeks to avoid a Republican defeat. The structure of public feeling will not facilitate its task. Its signature problems – trade, immigration and terrorism – are at the center of voters 'concerns, as are tax cuts, the Republicans' long-standing business card. In health care, a prominent issue, Democrats have an advantage of 16 points. Despite the recent strength of the economy, Republicans can not do better than a tie. Overall, 53% have a favorable opinion of the Democratic Party, compared to 43% for the Republicans.
It's September, leaving plenty of time for the famous "October surprise". But unless something big changes the underlying dynamics of the 2018 elections, President Trump will face a split government next year. That would change his presidency – and maybe his life – in a way that one suspects of not having imagined.
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