Republicans gain ground in the fight to retain their narrow majority in the Senate

Majority leader Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.) And Senate Democrats decided Thursday to suspend their work until the day after the election in exchange for a mandate allowing Democrats to confirm the appointment of 15 federal judges. This arrangement allowed vulnerable Democrats to return home to campaign.

Jennifer Duffy, who analyzes the Senate race for Cook's political report, said the Democrats' chances of winning a majority in the Senate were "more difficult than it was three weeks ago."

Nevertheless, she added, overthrowing control of the room was still "the third most likely outcome. The first is a choice of status quo, the second is a bound room. "

In case of equality, the Republicans would retain control as Vice President Mike Pence would become the anchor point of the chamber.

The Democrats, who defend far more seats than the Republicans in this round, must retain all of their seats in November and have a net gain of two seats to regain control of the chamber.

The battlefield map of the Senate has declined considerably since the spring. Democratic incumbents appear to be well-positioned to be re-elected in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – all states that President Trump won in 2016.

Officials of both parties agree that five Senate elections are within the margin of error of their internal polls: Arizona and Nevada, which are currently occupied by Republicans, and Democratic seats in Florida, in Indiana and Missouri.

In North Dakota, Democratic Senator Heidi Heitkamp has fallen behind GOP Party representative Kevin Cramer, while Democratic opponents Tennessee and Texas have lost ground in recent weeks.

As a sign of confidence, the National Committee of Republican Senators has canceled its television advertising reservations in North Dakota last week in order to use these resources for tighter races, officials said.

Democrats argue that Ms. Heitkamp beat Republican Rick Berg by 10 points in a week of the 2012 contest, which she won with about 3,000 votes. A Democratic agent shared a photo of Ms. Heitkamp, ​​a member of her 2012 Victory Day, in which she had been seen in possession of a copy of the Fargo newspaper bearing the title of a banner: "Berg has a 10 point lead".

They also report further evidence that Democratic candidates still have a chance to compete in the toughest races. Beto O'Rourke, who challenges Texas GOP Senator Ted Cruz, announced Friday that he raised $ 38 million in the fundraising period ending September 30th, $ 15 million more than has never collected a candidate in the Senate.

O'Rourke follows Mr. Cruz in two public polls released this week – numbers that match the GOP's private polls. Mr. O'Rourke does not employ, or abstain from, an expert in campaign surveys.

There is broad consensus that Kavanaugh's confirmation battle has boosted Republican voters, with GOP candidates noting public and private polls, strategists from both parties said.

But Republican campaigners warned that voter engagement could be ephemeral at a time when hip-hop artist Kanye West could dominate the airwaves for a day with a live visit to the Oval Office.

"The Republican enthusiasm after hearing with Kavanaugh is at least outdated and at worst equal to that of the Democrats since the beginning of the cycle," said Chris Wilson, GOP survey expert and whose clients are spread across half a dozen states.

Guy Cecil, chairman of the Democratic group Priorities USA, which broadcasts digital advertisements in six Senate editions, said the debates in the Kavanaugh case had been "a big distraction from what we prefer to talk about."

It remains unclear how powerful Kavanaugh messages will be in Senate races. Two GOP candidates – Matt Rosendale in Montana and Josh Hawley in Missouri – have television ads on the radio that attack their Democratic opponents for voting against Kavanaugh's confirmation.

GOP officials said the problem would be more widely used in direct mail and online advertising, and that Mr. Trump would defend it during campaign rallies.

"Was he abused and unfair or what? Horrible, "said Mr. Trump about Judge Kavanaugh at a rally in Lebanon (Ohio) on Friday night. "We are more energetic as Republicans than, I think, ever before," he added.

"The fight for the Kavanaugh's confirmation has restored the ground in major Senate races, polarizing the electorate into red states and energizing grassroots Republicans around the world," said John Ashbrook, a GOP strategist close to Mr. McConnell.

Democratic Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia may have isolated himself from the GOP attacks by voting to confirm Mr. Kavanaugh.

In another key state, Florida, the campaigns were interrupted by Hurricane Michael.

Florida Governor Rick Scott, a Republican defying Democratic Senator Bill Nelson, has rejected the official campaign to focus on state reconstruction efforts. Both still broadcast television ads in unaffected areas of the state.

In Arizona, Republicans are crumbling under the weight of earlier statements in which the Democratic Republic, Kyrsten Sinema, said his liberal views contradicted his image as a political centrist.

Nevertheless, Mr. Cecil, former executive director of the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee, said the Democrats were doing better than expected.

"The fact that we have been out in four weeks and have enough races in the margin of error to hold our position or win a place or two is the best position we can hope for," he said. declared.

Write to Reid J. Epstein at [email protected]