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In normal political times, a glowing report on the country's economy just before polling day would be a gift to the ruling party and a consistent topic of discussion for its candidates. But at the entrance of the last weekend before Tuesday's mid-term vote, the resounding message of President Trump's nativism fear became the dominant theme of the final days of the campaign, threatening to overshadow the good economic news. .
It's a political tie that Republicans have not envisioned. They spent the last months of 2017 working on a set of radical tax cuts that they hoped could be the centerpiece of their campaign message for 2018, underpinned by the rising stock market and the weak unemployment rate. And they got what they wanted by passing a $ 1.5 trillion tax bill last December.
A new employment report released on Friday highlighted the continued strength of the economy as employers created about 250,000 jobs in October, while the unemployment rate remained at 3.7%. its lowest level for almost 50 years.
But Mr. Trump, again, has changed the traditional political notebook. Candidates are often forced to answer for their incendiary and unfounded tweets. And at political rallies that become a daily occurrence as the elections draw near, the president is engulfed in racist floods, using a broad brush to paint immigrants as evil and dangerous.
"They all say," Talk about the economy, talk about the economy, "Trump said Friday at a rally in West Virginia." Well, we have the biggest economy of our country's history, but sometimes it's not so exciting to talk about economics. "
During the election campaign, Republican candidates took a split-screen approach to Mr. Trump's nationalist message; many, recognizing its political power with the conservative base, continue to accept it.
Democrats have an "open border psychosis," said Republican right-winger Kris Kobach, governor of Kansas, to a crowd of spectators in Kansas City, at a rally on Friday with the vice president. Mike Pence. Earlier in the day, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz made a critical speech boasting about the economy, but quickly moved to a more troubling theme that closely matches Trump's warnings of an "invasion" of migrants. .
"You mean the people of Texas want to stop the caravan?", Launched Mr. Cruz, who competes in a competitive race under high surveillance against Beto O'Rourke, the fiery young democrat. The crowd responded by chanting "Build the wall".
Other Republicans, however, strive to avoid the language of the president and focus instead on a primarily economic message.
In Winterset County, Iowa, representative David Young, a Republican very close to power, devoted most of his speech to voters on the strength of the economy and the creation of jobs by the Republicans.
"We are witnessing a real revival of the economy in the country," he said. "Here in rural Iowa, our economy presents incredible things. I just want to keep the federal government out so that people can work, small businesses can grow, larger companies can hire more people, we can maintain the growth of the economy as today. ; hui. "
This week, during the election campaign, two Illinois Republicans, engaged in tough races in the suburbs of Chicago, played down the problem of immigration. Randy Hultgren, the 14th congressional district, did not mention Trump's speech on immigration at the White House Thursday in a stop the next day at a metal forging plant.
Peter Roskam, a Republican faced with a daunting challenge, told McClatchy that immigration rhetoric was not important to his district.
This message "Just past this district," said Roskam. "This district hears that and kind of shrugs."
A key contributor to outgoing Speaker Paul D. Ryan also urged Republicans to praise the jobs report. "Are we going to spend the whole day and the weekend talking about the strength of the economy, is not it?", Brendan Buck, assistant tweeted.
Some Democrats have actually wielded the tax package against their opponents, including Danny O'Connor, a Democrat running in a tight race against Republican President Troy Balderson in Ohio. In the run-up to the August special election – they clash again in Tuesday's general election – Mr. O'Connor and his supporters spent more money on attacking tax cuts than Mr. Balderson and his allies did not spend to defend them.
Traditional Republican pollsters and strategists have said that following Trump's inflammatory strategy too closely may carry more risk than rewards for candidates in the final days of the campaign. They caution against the negative reactions of minority voters and college-educated whites, two groups that may be particularly important in deciding on Congressional control.
Polls suggest that the same suburban independents who defeated Mr. Trump in the last days of the 2016 election could return to Democrats this time around. And Republican campaign veterans have said that even if Mr. Trump's scare campaign set his base on fire, it could energize other voters who were previously apathetic to vote for a Democrat next Tuesday. .
"The problem is that Republicans have a good story to tell in the economy," said Mike Murphy, former adviser to Jeb Bush, John McCain and Mitt Romney. "But the Republican with the biggest microphone just wants to go on those rants on immigration."
Mr. Trump, he said, "managed to offend all voters voting in the country."
This could be particularly risky in competitive races for the House of Representatives. Republicans defend many seats in various metropolitan areas where the president's scalded language could be an obstacle.
At his rally on Friday, Trump acknowledged that Republicans could lose the House, saying "it could happen, could happen."
Both parties were optimistic about the half-dozen more competitive races in the Senate. But in Missouri, where one of the races in the Senate is the most watched, officials from both parties said internal polls revealed that Senator Claire McCaskill, Democrat, had gained ground against Republican opponent Josh Hawley, Attorney General of the State.
Jeff Kaufmann, president of the Republican Party of Iowa, said that he did not think that Mr. Trump's closing message was prejudicial even if it did not fit the economic arguments proposed by Republican candidates of the state.
"As long as the non-economic issues he is talking about do not go against the heart of what defines us as a state, I do not think it's a distraction," Kaufmann said. "I almost think that his presence and his energy at this stage of our intermediate sessions are more important than what he says precisely."
Nevertheless, some Republicans have even been criticized even by members of their own party for presenting an inflammatory closure argument.
Senator Jeff Flake of Arizona, a Republican who is retiring at the end of his tenure, has qualified the tone of his own party as "inconvenient". Pennsylvania's representative, Ryan Costello, also said that Trump's immigration positions had distracted the party's best mid-term message.
"We all know the challenges of Republicans in the suburbs," he tweeted. "So now, POTUS, out of nowhere, gives life to citizenship. In addition to being the basic principle of America, it is a political misconduct. "
But some Republicans – and the voters who support them – said that Trump's explicit language reflected their own beliefs.
"The radical left is on the move," said Rep. Kevin Yoder, a Republican from Kansas facing a difficult re-election campaign in a suburban district in transition, who also participated in the rally with Mr. Pence. "They are running. And this radical left is based on socialism. "
At the rally of Mr. Cruz in Fort Worth, Bill Ranelle, 75, said that on a scale of 1 to 10, he had assessed his concerns about the immigration of eight and had given voice to some non-characterizations. based on migrants.
"My grandparents went through Ellis Island and their goal was to live the American dream and be part of the American culture," he said. "I do not see the illegals wanting to do that."
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