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At a winter party last week, Ohio Republican Governor John Kasich spoke at a theater in New Hampshire's largest city as a snowstorm headed for the city. He quickly dropped out of the podium to talk to the public from the ground, at their level and out of reach of the spotlight.
The governor hailed the important work done by journalists around the world in calling the rich and powerful to account, while attacking the incumbent president and raising the need to unify the nation.
In response to questions from the public, Kasich explained how US allies perceive the country at the time of Donald Trump's presidential turmoil and how immigration issues can not be solved at US borders.
To be clear, Kasich did not announce his candidacy for the White House in 2020 against the president of his own party. And he was in New Hampshire at the invitation of the Nackey S. Loeb School of Communications to speak at the First Amendment Awards, not to campaign.
But any visit by a politician to the state – which hosts the country's first presidential primary – is seen as a test of the waves. And, of course, the last time a keynote speaker spoke at these First Amendment Awards two years before a presidential race, he won not only the New Hampshire primary, but also the presidency . This man was Trump.
In New Hampshire, the election season starts early. And though there must be a Republican rebellion against Trump in 2020, it is in New Hampshire that his fires will be on. Kasich's visit has now firmly fueled speculation about an impending Republican civil war.
Kasich, who came second in New Hampshire's primary over Trump in 2016, is a fairly common visitor to the state recently and is considered a potential challenger.
But he is not alone.
Arizona Senator Jeff Flake, the Republican critic of the president, is also presented as a potential candidate for the insurgents. Like Kasich, he recently made several trips to New Hampshire, including in March at the Politics and Eggs event at St. Anselm College, a traditional stop for those looking to win the New Hampshire primary. He has not asked for re-election this year either. And although he did not say he was running, Flake said a Republican "must" challenge Trump in 2020.
Bill Kristol, founder of conservative Weekly Standard magazine and Trump critic, is reported to have tried to recruit a GOP candidate to face Trump in 2020 with his non-profit association Defending Democracy Together. Kasich and Flake are in the study, as is Senator Nebraska Ben Sasse. The governors of Massachusetts, Charlie Baker, and Maryland's Larry Hogan, are also "on Kristol's radar."
On Thursday in New Hampshire, Kasich alluded to the possibility of running in 2020, but he made it clear that he no longer wanted Trump to be in power.
"I thought that he was not a unifying force. And then, I hoped for a few years that he could find his way. I am now convinced that he can not, "he said.
But Kasich – or any other insurgent Republican candidate – would he have a chance?
Republicans may have an appetite. In August, a New Hampshire Journal poll found that 40 percent of New Hampshire Republicans were supportive of the idea of a Republican challenger facing Trump in 2020.
Although Kasich came in second in New Hampshire's primary in 2016, the 16 percent of votes he got were almost 20 points less than Trump, who easily won the state. However, Kasich fans believe that the governor could have a better performance next time if he ran.
"You can not really define the next election by the last election. Things are different We now know what kind of President Donald Trump would do, "said Thomas Rath, Republican New Hampshire member and national advisor to Kasich's 2016 campaign.
In a poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire in August, 56 percent of Republican voters in New Hampshire said they would vote for Trump during the Republican primary poll in 2020, while 20 percent voted for another candidate and 24% are undecided.
While some may see it as a potential opening for challengers, Andrew Smith, director of the New Hampshire University polling center, warned that Barack Obama had a similar number of Democratic Democrats, with only 63 % of New Hampshire Democrats claim 2010 that they would vote for him at the 2012 primary.
And while many New Hampshire Republicans still do not pledge to vote for Trump, his approval rate remains high, hovering around 80%. At the national level, Trump's approval rate among Republicans has reached 91% according to Gallop.
"I do not think he has to worry so much," Smith said.
However, he added, if a Republican challenger "were able to win the New Hampshire primary against a sitting president, you would question the viability of the president."
Wayne Lesperance, professor of political science at Henniker, New England College of New Hampshire, sees an opportunity for a Republican challenger, but notes that the battle is difficult.
"When it will be introduced to voters as being Trump or a Democrat, Republicans will rally around the President saying that he is our man, because the Democratic option is just one step away," he said. he declared. "But when it is formulated differently, not like a president and a democrat, but another republican, there seems to be a greater appetite."
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Rath, the former Kasich advisor, said that it was not enough to be a different candidate from the controversial president to win. You must have different policies that appeal.
"You have to be ready to be relatively specific. It's not enough to just say he's a little crazy and that I'm a nice guy. "
For any Republican challenger, a good performance in New Hampshire – or in the Iowa caucus or at the upcoming primaries in Nevada and South Carolina – is a must.
"These first four states are really the playground," said Lesperance. "If you're not considered credible beyond that, it's almost impossible to mount what would eventually become a national campaign."
Analysts say the challengers could survive a defeat against Trump and remain a threat, but they should capture a large share of the vote.
"For a non-Trump candidate at the New Hampshire primary, it would require that he exceeds 30%, to get more than a third of the voters support, to be perceived as a credible challenge for Trump," Smith said of the university. from New Hampshire. "Below that, these are just expectations. You can always find a number of people who are unhappy with the president and who will vote against him. "
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