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A new scientific study of predictions and alternative scenarios for life expectancy and leading causes of death in 2040 shows that all countries are likely to experience at least a slight increase in lifespan. By contrast, in one scenario, nearly half of the nations could face a lower life expectancy.
The ranking of life expectancy of countries offers new information on their health status.
For example, China, with an average life expectancy of 76.3 years in 2016, ranked 68th out of 195 countries. However, if health trends continue in recent years, it could reach 39th in 2040 with an average life expectancy of 81.9 years, an increase of 5.6 years.
In 2016, the United States ranked 43rd with an average life of 78.7 years. In 2040, life expectancy is expected to increase by only 1.1 years to reach 79.8 years, but to fall to 64th place. In comparison, the United Kingdom had a life of 80.8 years in 2016 and is expected to increase to 83.3 years, from 26th to 23rd in 2040.
In addition, the study, published in the international medical journal The lancet, predicts a significant increase in the number of deaths from noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), including diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), chronic kidney disease and lung cancer, as well as the deterioration of health outcomes related to NCDs. l & # 39; obesity.
However, there is "great potential to change the downward trajectory of health" by tackling key risk factors, education levels, and per capita income, the authors say.
"The future of health in the world is not pre-ordained and there is a wide range of plausible trajectories," said Kyle Foreman, director of data science at the Institute of Medicine. metrology and health evaluation from the University of Washington, and lead author of the study. "But if we see significant progress or stagnation depends on whether or not health systems are able to take into account the key factors of health."
High blood pressure, high body mass index, hyperglycemia, smoking and alcohol largely explain the future trajectory of premature mortality. Air pollution ranked sixth.
In addition to China, the life expectancy of several other countries is expected to increase significantly in 2040, including Syria, which is expected to reach the highest level in the world – from 137th in 2016 to 80th in 2040 – according to estimates. the authors, because of a conservative model of conflict; Nigeria from 157th to 123rd; and Indonesia from the 117th to the 100th
In contrast, Palestine is expected to experience the largest decline in life expectancy, from 114th in 2016 to 152nd in 2040. In addition, several high-income countries are expected to fall substantially, including the United States. , including the United States. income countries, from 43rd in 2016 to 64th in 2040; Canada from 17 to 27; Norway from the 12th to the 20th; Taiwan (Province of China) from 35th to 42nd; Belgium from the 21st to the 28th; Netherlands from the 15th to the 21st.
The ranking also reveals that Spain is expected to rank first in the world in 2040 (average life of 85.8 years), up from fourth place in 2016 (average life of 82.9 years ). Japan, ranked first in 2016 (average life of 83.7 years), will move to second place in 2040 (average life of 85.7 years).
Singapore (which has an average life of 85.4 years) ranks third, compared to 83.3 years in 2016 and third; Switzerland (average life of 85.2 years), compared to 83.3 years in 2016 and second ranking; Portugal (average life of 84.5 years), compared to 81.0 years in 2016 and 23rd; Italy (average life of 84.5 years), compared with 82.3 years in 2016 and seventh; Israel (average life of 84.4 years), compared to 82.1 years in 2016 and 13th; France (average life of 84.3 years), compared to 82.3 years in 2016 and also eighth; Luxembourg (average life of 84.1 years) against 82.2 years in 2016 and 10th rank; and Australia (average life of 84.1 years), compared to 82.5 years in 2016 and fifth.
Among the top 10 countries, even the "worst" scenarios envisaged in 2040 remain above 80 years.
In contrast, the lowest-ranked countries, namely Lesotho, Swaziland, Central African Republic and South Africa, the "best" and "worst-case scenarios" in 2040 are going from a peak of 75 , 3 years in South Africa ("best" scenario). 45.3 years in Lesotho ("worst case scenario"), a difference of 30 years.
"Inequalities will continue to be important," said Christopher Murray, Director of IHME. "The gap between the" better "and" worst "scenarios will diminish, but will remain important: in many countries too many people will continue to earn relatively low incomes, remain poorly educated and die prematurely. helping people cope with major risks, including smoking and unhealthy eating
In a "worst case" scenario, life expectancy declines in nearly half of the countries in the next generation. Specifically, 87 countries will experience a decline and another 57 will see an increase of one year or more. By contrast, in the "best" scenario, 158 countries will see life expectancy gains of at least five years, while 46 countries will see gains of 10 years or more.
The growing trend towards an increase in premature mortality due to noncommunicable diseases and injuries, as well as the abandonment of communicable diseases, is clear from the changing proportions of the top 10 causes of premature death.
In 2016, four of the top 10 causes of premature mortality were NCDs or injuries; on the other hand, in 2040, this number increases to eight. The eight major noncommunicable diseases among the top ten causes in 2040 are expected to be: ischemic heart disease, stroke, COPD, chronic kidney disease, Alzheimer's disease, diabetes, road trauma and lung cancer.
The study has unprecedented reach, says Foreman, and provides more robust statistical modeling and more comprehensive and detailed estimates of risk factors and diseases than previous predictions from the United Nations and other research institutes on the subject. population.
IHME researchers have used data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study to develop "better" and "worse" alternative forecasts and scenarios for life expectancy and mortality. mortality by 250 causes of death in 195 countries and territories.
Researchers made predictions of health-independent factors, including sociodemographic measures of fertility, per capita income, and years of education, as well as 79 independent factors such as smoking, mass index high body, lack of clean water and sanitation. They then used information on how each of these independent drivers assigns specific causes of death to develop mortality forecasts.
"The range of" best "and" worst "scenarios allows stakeholders to examine potential changes to improve health systems – locally, nationally and globally," Murray said. "These scenarios offer new perspectives and help frame health planning, particularly with regard to the long timeframe between initial investments and their impacts, as in drug research and development."
In addition to attracting attention to the growing importance of noncommunicable diseases, the analysis reveals a significant risk of rebounding mortality from HIV / AIDS, which could negate gains life expectancy recently recorded by several countries in sub-Saharan Africa.
In addition, while NCDs are expected to increase in many low-income countries, communicable, maternal, neonatal and nutritional diseases will likely remain one of the leading causes of premature death, creating a "double burden" of the disease. .
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