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Rio de Janeiro (AFP) – A far-right politician who has spoken favorably about torture and past military power seems poised to change the direction of Brazilian centrist democracy – polls suggesting that He could win the first round of presidential elections on Sunday.
Jair Bolsonaro, a former army captain inclined to misogynistic, homophobic and racist remarks, expressed his unwavering nostalgia for the military dictatorship that spearheaded the largest economy in Latin America between 1964 and 1985.
The frustration caused by the traditional politicians, accused of the worst recession the country has ever known, as well as widespread corruption, helped to fuel the rise of Bolsonaro's power.
The same goes for his speeches that promise an iron fist to crush the chronic crimes that Brazilians face daily.
Yet he is also fiercely rejected by most voters – especially women and the poor – who fear the social upheavals he advocates.
The result is a deeply polarized country.
And even if Bolsonaro, 63, gets away with a win in the first round, the match will be far from over. A likely second round between him and the next ranked candidate is considered too tight.
The leftist candidate, Fernando Haddad, who replaced the workers' party imprisoned former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, was declared a competitor. Haddad accused part of the Brazilian elite of coming together to "fascism" of Bolsonaro.
– "Enough of violence" –
The presidential vote is part of Sunday's general elections, which will also choose new legislatures and state and federated governors.
For many voters, Bolsonaro is the solution to the daily insecurity they face in a country that has the highest number of murders in the world – nearly 64,000 last year – and robberies to armed hand.
"The Brazilians are really tired of this violence," said Ericky Tostes, a police officer who told AFP that he would vote for Bolsonaro. "I lost count of the number of people fallen in our ranks here, in the state of Rio de Janeiro, and the number of funerals that I attended, from friends, from colleagues. "
Carlos Alberto da Silva, a 50-year-old taxi driver, agreed. "I am for him, he is in favor of castration of rapists, sending soldiers to schools so that teachers are respected and not attacked in class," he said.
Some pointed out that Bolsonaro was one of the few politicians in the country not to be accused of corruption.
But other voters said they remained loyal to Haddad because he embodied Lula's legacy of helping Brazil's poor.
"People of the middle and lower classes did not have a good life, we lived with leftovers, and then we were recognized as citizens," said a retired Malvina Joana from Lima.
"For me and the students like me who participated in social programs giving access to the university, the eight years of Lula's government were the best in the history of the country," said student Artur Sampaio in political science, 25 years old.
– A Facebook candidate –
Bolsonaro's anti-crime stance and the status of a poll member received an unexpected boost last month when he was the victim of a knife attack while he was campaigning. After leaving the hospital last weekend after a three-week recovery, he saw his support grow.
The latest surveys this week attributed him at least 31% of voter intentions, about 10 points ahead of Haddad.
The rally in Bolsonaro sent the Brazilian stock market and money up, as investors bet on its promise to reduce the country's debt through privatizations and reduce the public sector wage bill.
However, Capital Economics, a consulting firm, warned on Thursday in a briefing note that the uncertain final outcome of the presidential race meant that the winnings "could not be maintained".
Meanwhile, Bolsonaro has downplayed traditional ways of appealing to voters, mainly refusing to talk to journalists and relying more on Brazil's dependence on Facebook and WhatsApp.
"If we lose social networks, it's over," he said at one of his many live video feeds on Facebook, where he has seven million subscribers.
This tactic overcame one of the main limitations he faced: limiting himself to television ads of up to eight seconds under the election rules, spreading the time spent in front of a screen based on the size of the party of a congressional candidate.
The right-wing social-liberal party in Bolsonaro has only eight representatives in the 513-seat lower house – and could at best pick up two more in Sunday's general election, highlighting the legislative challenge it faces. He was running Brazil.
