Risk of recession in the United States increases slightly, the Fed could make fewer increases, according to a poll

The Federal Reserve is still expected to raise interest rates in the coming year, but a majority of economists see the pace slowing.

That's what comes out of the latest Reuters poll.

The Fed is expected to rise again next month and three times next year.

The probability of a recession in the United States over the next two years, though still low, has also been raised to an average of 35% instead of 30%.

The growth of the world's largest economy is still solid, supported by tax cuts of $ 1.5 trillion, and unemployment is the lowest for nearly half a century.

However, growth is expected to slow further by the end of next year as the trade gap with China shows no sign of easing.

Gross domestic product (GDP) will grow at an annualized rate of 2.7% this quarter, down from 4.2% in the second quarter and 3.5% in the third.

GDP growth is expected to slow to 2.0-2.5% in 2019, and to 1.8% in mid-2020, about half of the last rate announced.

The trade war launched by US President Donald Trump with the world's second largest economy China has already begun to tap export-sensitive economies such as Germany and Japan. An Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit has concluded Sunday as leaders failed to agree on a final declaration for the first time in the history of the forum. .

Expectations have diminished as President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping make a breakthrough at their meeting at the G20 summit later this month.

Economists in the latest survey unanimously said the Fed would raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 2.25-2.50% in December.

Twelve respondents to the latest survey said that there was more than a 50% chance of a recession over the next two years. But only one, Fathom Consulting, has actually announced a one-time forecast of the GDP contraction for the whole of 2020.