Robust economy drowned by Trump's mid-term message

The Labor Department's employment report released on Friday was as impressive as any president could have hoped for just days before voters went to the polls.

However, adding a quarter of a million jobs to the economy in October and keeping the unemployment rate at 3.7%, its lowest level in 48 years, does not should not make a lot of things happen on polling day.

Pollsters say that while the economy is an important predictor of election results, it is far from the only one. The saying of the Clinton era that elections have the theme "the economy, stupid," is too narrow in our time, they say.

Other data points, such as the approval rating of the president and the fact that people think the country is on the right track, now play an equally influential role. And these indicators do not go in the same direction for President TrumpDonald John TrumpTrump calls Gillum "uneducated" to become governor of Florida. Mid-term issues for Silicon Valley Republicans are strained on pre-existing conditions.

Consumer confidence has almost reached its highest level in 18 years, while the number of Trump approvals is 12 percentage points, according to polls compiled by RealClearPolitics.

And the secondary role of the economy in the mid-term campaign caused a break in the GOP.

While many Republican candidates wish to remain focused on the strength of the economy, Trump has focused much of his discourse on immigration, which he sees as a stronger motivator for participation. election.

When he talks about the economy, he usually warns that if the Democrats took control of either House of Congress on November 6th.

"If you want your shares to go down, I strongly suggest voting Democrat," Trump tweeted this week. "They like Venezuela's financial model, high taxes and open borders!"

On Friday, he acknowledged receipt of the monthly jobs report tweeting: "Wow! The United States created 250,000 jobs in October, despite hurricanes. Unemployment at 3.7%. Salary UP! These are incredible numbers. Continue, vote Republican!

But his central election message revolved around immigration, the basis of his successful campaign in 2016. More recently, he has sounded the alarm bells about a migrant caravan composed in large numbers part of refugees heading to the US border, calling them invaders and warning criminal elements of the country. group.

"Illegal immigration affects the lives of all Americans. "Illegal immigration hurts American workers, puts American taxpayers on the line, compromises public safety and puts tremendous pressure on schools, hospitals and local communities," Trump said on Twitter on Thursday.

This insistence on immigration goes against the protection efforts of vulnerable Republicans in the moderate suburbs where many voters are opposed to Trump's cultural wars. The legislators of the GOP rely instead on the dynamism of the economy and praise the economic figures.

Trump even joked about his message discrepancy with the GOP at a rally Friday in West Virginia.

"They all say 'talk about the economy, talk about the economy,'" said Trump. "Sometimes it's not as exciting to talk about the economy."

According to the Wesleyan Media Project, nearly half of pro-Republican ads (47%) focus on economic issues such as taxes and employment, while only 17% focus on immigration.

An analysis by Bloomberg News revealed that more than 570,000 TV commercials targeted at GOP candidates focused on the 2017 tax reduction bill, making it the biggest Republican advertising issue this year. At the same time, Democrats have benefited from the GOP's efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act, also known as ObamaCare, and remove the protections provided by the 2010 Act for patients with pre-existing conditions.

Some investigators believe that this mixture of problems should be as it should be.

"Basically, voters weigh immigration, health care, Trump and the good economy as the four reasons that drive almost every vote," pollster Mark Penn said Friday. "With today's numbers, Trump would make a mistake of talking about anything else for four days."

A Kaiser Family Foundation survey in mid-October found that while 55% of adults said immigration was a very important issue for mid-term elections, this topic was lagging behind firearms (60%) and the economy (64%). The main problem they cited was health care, with 71%.

Democrats each have their own views on the economic situation, many evoking largely stagnant wages, growing inequality and the general unpopularity of the GOP's tax cuts – all of them problems they relate to health care.

"The October employment report has positive news, but families working hard across America are finding themselves on a drier ground than ever before," said the minority leader. in the room. Nancy PelosiNancy Patricia's Alesandro PelosiThe push for immigration at Trump raises debate in the Senate. The GOP is already fighting for the fight in the House leadership. Your wallet is on the PLUS ballot (D-Calif.). "Large corporations and the richest 1% benefit from the GOP tax scam that is blowing up their deficit, while Republican leaders reiterate their call to drastically reduce Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security for our seniors."

In addition to highlighting related economic problems, some well-known Democrats have focused more on the economy than Trump. And they are looking to use positive numbers to boost party candidates.

"The Republicans are all:" Look, the economy is so good. "Where do you think it started?" When did it begin? "Former President Obama said Friday at a campaign rally for gubernatorial candidate Andrew Gillum (D). ) and Sen. Bill NelsonClarence (Bill) William NelsonTrump calls Gillum "un-equipped" to be the governor of Florida. Jimmy Buffett takes musical shots to Trump during the concert. Obama met delirious fans at the Florida Taco Store. MORE (D) who must be re-elected.