Russia promises advanced missiles to Syria after a break with Israel

MOSCOW – Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Monday that Russia would provide the Syrian army with a sophisticated air defense system, reflecting growing tensions between Russia and Israel and could increase the risk of air warfare in Syria.

Israel, a long-time opponent of arms transfers, has carried out more than 200 strikes on Iran-affiliated targets in Syria over the last two years, with Russia, Syria's main patron, having instead diverted 'Warning.

But relations between Russia and Israel have collapsed since a Russian military plane was shot down on Syria a week ago, killing 15 members of the Russian service. The plane was accidentally shot down by Syria in response to an Israeli airstrike.

After Russia initially accused Israel, Putin appeared last week to accept the loss as an accident.

But on Monday, the Russian Defense Minister said that the decision to send sophisticated S-300 missiles to Syria was made in response to Israel's disregard for the safety of the Russian military. The Israeli pilots, he said, had intentionally maneuvered near the Russian plane to protect themselves from Syria's attacks, endangering the Russian crew.

"Israeli crews, who were perfectly familiar with the situation in the air, took refuge behind the Russian aircraft, which resulted in its destruction and the death of 15 members of the service," Defense Minister Sergei said. K. Shoigu. "This forced us to take reasonable measures in response, aimed at improving the safety of Russian soldiers."

Israel rejected this analysis, saying its planes had already returned to Israeli airspace before the missile was fired.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a phone call with Putin on Monday that "the transfer of advanced weapons systems to irresponsible hands would increase the dangers in the region," according to a statement from Netanyahu's office. .

He added that Israel "would continue to defend its security and interests," implying that it would not be deterred from continuing to attack targets affiliated with Iran, including advanced weapons intended for Hezbollah, the movement supported by Iran in Lebanon. use against Israel.

Israeli analysts said the transfer of the powerful Russian S-300 ground-to-air missile systems to Syria would add an additional layer of risk and complexity to these operations.

So far, Israel has enjoyed relative freedom of action in its air campaign in Syria, thanks in part to the good relations Mr. Netanyahu has had with Mr. Putin. And while new missiles would complicate military action in Syria's overcrowded airspace, several analysts have said they would not change anything.

The Israeli army has been prepared for such an eventuality for years, Israeli analysts said, and could probably work around this problem, destroying the systems if necessary.

"Providing the S-300 increases the risk of unprofessional Syrian operators to the Russian air force above all, to Israel, the United States and the coalition, and also to civil aviation," said Amos Yadlin. wrote on Twitter. "Israel has been preparing for the threat for 20 years and will know how to deal with the situation."

But François Heisbourg, a French defense analyst and former defense official, said he presumed that the S-300 would be operated by Russians and not by Syrians.

"The Russians are cautious guys and have arrangements with the Israelis," he said. Basically, he said, it's about "giving the Russians a warning when you want to bomb Iranians or Hezbollah in Syria, so we do not shoot at you, but do not go beyond that target."

The new missiles "do not change the game, unless the Israelis want to change the game, and I do not think they want to do it," Heisbourg said.

The S-300 missiles are mounted on a truck in tubes, giving the weapons the appearance of a truck and allowing them to move to avoid attacks. The missiles have a range of about 150 miles.

Unlike the older weapons of Syria, the S-200, the new missiles have an electronic system to avoid hitting friendly planes.

More than the capabilities of the new system, the biggest threat could be the deterioration of Russian-Israeli relations. The promised arms transfer showed that the crisis over the Russian plane shot down was not over.

The incident occurred after Israeli planes struck a military installation in western Syria, which Israel said contained weapon-making systems to be transferred to Hezbollah.

The Syrian army fired back by firing an obsolete Soviet-made missile that struck a Russian reconnaissance aircraft, an Ilyushin Il-20.

The Russian Defense Ministry accused Israel of hiding its F-16 behind the Russian plane, making the I-20 a target for Syrian antiaircraft missiles. But Israel said that the Russian plane was not in the area when Israeli fighter planes attacked their target and that Israeli planes were back in Israeli airspace when the Surveillance aircraft was shot down.

Putin seemed to accept the point and soften the conflict, saying the next day, "a chain of tragic accidental circumstances" was to blame, not just Israel.

But on Sunday, the Russian Ministry of Defense issued a scathing report, taking over responsibility for the destruction of the plane on Israel.

The Israeli army reacted by declaring again that its planes "did not hide behind any aircraft" and that "Israeli planes were in Israeli airspace at the time of the fall of the Russian aircraft".

The Israeli army insisted that its deconfliction mechanism with the Russian forces "was working within the deadlines," giving them sufficient warning.

But Mr Putin seemed to have changed his mind.

The Kremlin said on Monday that Israeli explanations "differed from the conclusions of the Russian Defense Ministry" and that the actions of the Israeli pilots were the "root cause of the tragedy".

The Kremlin said the new missiles would be delivered within two weeks, but that remains to be seen.

In the past, Russian S-300 credit transfers were more like trading positions. A proposed sale to Iran, for example, has been delayed several times, following objections from Israel and the United States and diplomatic haggling. Finally, the missiles were delivered.