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Then there is Israel: the Jewish state, which shares a border with Syria, wants to prevent Iran from establishing a permanent military presence and to ensure that Hezbollah does not make Syria a base of operations for Syria. attack his territory. In doing so, Israel has also maintained a close alliance with Russia on developments in Syria. Monday's announcement of Syria's S-300 supply is a setback for the alliance.
Russia's policy on Syria may be unsustainable
After last week's incident, both parties appeared to have adopted a conciliatory tone. As I indicated, the Russian Ministry of Defense has accused Israeli pilots use the Russian plane as a cover, causing it to fall. Russian President Vladimir Putin appeared to defuse tensions by declaring that the incident was the result of a "string of tragic accidental circumstances".
But things got worse on Monday when Moscow said the responsibility for slaughtering the Il-20 was "accountable"relies entirely on the Israeli Air Force, "adding that it would provide Syria with the S-300 system to ensure that such an event does not happen again.
Until last week's incident, Israel and Russia managed to set aside their conflicting goals in Syria – for Russia to strengthen Assad and for Israel, preventing Iran or its proxies from establishing themselves in Syria – while coordinating the military action. But the announcement by Russia of sending Assad S-300 will complicate this dynamic. The new missiles are much more accurate and, as wrote the Israeli journalist Barak Ravid Axios"Could limit the freedom of operation of the Israeli Air Force in Syria". Indeed, Israel has conducted hundreds of air strikes on Syrian territory since the beginning of the conflict, but now it may be that it must pay more attention. If Syria actually hits an Israeli plane, the potential for a regional explosion involving not only Israel, Iran, Syria and Russia, but also the United States, is high.
The Syrian war makes a lot of wars
Given the potential consequences of last week's incident, Israel sent a senior military official to Moscow to explain his version of events. Russia did not buy it, insisting that Israel had not shot down the plane, but was still responsible for what had happened because Israeli planes had used the Russian plane as a cover. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said on Monday that the S-300 systems would "cool the hotheads" in Israel and "prevent reckless actions" against the Russian army.
That said, both countries need one of the other. For Russia, Israel is a vital regional ally with close ties to Western countries, most of whom have punished Moscow for its actions in Ukraine and its alleged assassination attempts in Britain. For Israel, Russia is perhaps the main country that can influence Iran's actions. Last week's lethal incident could be a temporary failure, but it is unlikely that there will be a permanent break.
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