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Cuba is again at the heart of what could be another clash between the United States and Russia, after the identification of Moscow as the main suspect in the series of mysterious attacks against staff of the American Embassy and his relatives in Havana.
An NBC report quoting unidentified US officials said the federal agencies investigating the incidents intercepted intelligence reports that Russia was responsible for the attacks, although the evidence is not conclusive enough to formally accuse Moscow.
But if a Russian role is confirmed, "it would be unprecedented. This has never happened, "said Frank Mora, who has served as deputy secretary of defense for Latin America and now heads the Latin American and Caribbean Center of Kimberly Green at Florida International University. .
"Russia has mingled with the US elections and has been behind attacks against former Russian spies in England, but to cause serious injury to US officials, it's much more complicated and the United States must react in one way or another ".
According to the NBC report, the US military is working to reproduce the weapon or weapons used to injure 26 State Department, CIA and other federal agency employees, as well as members of the family. based in Havana. Victims suffered from symptoms such as loss of hearing, cognitive problems and brain damage.
A team of doctors who investigated the incidents at the request of the US government said it was possible that the attackers were using a "neuro-weapon" of directed energy that could damage the brain by causing a "cavitation" effect on the brain. ultrasound, electromagnetic or microwave. The US Air Force Research Program on Directed Energy is participating in the investigation.
Mora and other experts told El Nuevo Herald that if Moscow's role in the attacks is confirmed, the US government could impose more sanctions on Russia. "There would be pressure for President Donald Trump or the White House to issue a statement," said Chris Sabatini, a Latin American expert and professor at Columbia University.
Cuba could also suffer repercussions.
"I'm afraid Cuba is no longer a whip for Russia, even if their fingerprints are everywhere," Sabatini said. "He's the weakest player, and it's American politics under the Trump administration."
Trump stepped up American rhetoric against Cuba and tightened restrictions on travel and investment on the island. With the likely appointment of Mauricio Claver-Carone as a Latin American director at the National Security Council, the White House could use the Havana attacks to reverse the measures of engagement adopted by former President Barack Obama and possibly even be sending Cuba back the list of countries that sponsor terrorism, Sabatini said.
Mora said that Florida senator Marco Rubio, a Cuban-American Republican close to Claver-Carone who influenced Trump's policies on Cuba, could "take advantage of the opportunity to strengthen and impose more sanctions and sanctions." pressures to the Cuban government ".
The senator's office declined to comment on the NBC report, but Rubio told El Nuevo Herald last week that "finally, the Cuban regime must be held responsible. Because either they have led these attacks or they know who told us and who does not tell us.
The United States government withdrew most of its embassies in Havana, but did not accuse Cuba of these attacks. The Cuban government denied any involvement and called the complaints a lie.
Yet Rubio is not alone in saying that the Cuban government is unlikely to know who is behind the incidents. Cuba did not protect American personnel in Havana, the State Department argued.
One of the most popular theories in Washington and Miami is that supporters of the Cuban government, who wanted to end the normalization process of relations begun by the Obama administration, could have collaborated with Russia on these attacks.
"Historically, this has been a problem for them," said Mora, referring to the sympathy of Cuban security officials for the Soviet experts who trained them. And Raúl Castro, who stepped down as president in April but remains at the head of the Cuban Communist Party, may not want to admit that he does not totally control what is happening on the island.
According to unconfirmed reports in recent months, before leaving the government, Mr. Castro quietly dismantled or rearranged the National Security and Defense Committee led by his son, Colonel Alejandro Castro Espín. could not stop them or was involved in some way. El Nuevo Herald has not been able to confirm the rumors, but Castro Espín has not been seen in public for several months.
Some experts said the Cuban security forces simply did not notice and stopped the attacks.
"It is unlikely, given the narrow level of control that the regime maintains on the population, that they did not know it," Sabatini said. "But in the mid-90s, there was a series of bombings in hotels and weeks before officials were found. It's unlikely, but not impossible.
In this obscure saga, Russia's motives for attacking US officials may be more obvious.
It is clear that Russia has an interest in sabotaging the renewed US-Cuba relationship. In recent years, Russia has intensified its commitment and investments in Cuba because they are clearly under threat, "said James Williams, head of the United States Business Coalition Engage Cuba, to improve relations with Cuba and end to the US embargo. "If these allegations are confirmed, the Trump administration has the responsibility to hold Russia accountable".
Ben Rhodes, who led the Obama administration's secret negotiations to restore diplomatic relations between Washington and Havana, said Russian spies were following the contacts closely.
But analysts of US-Cuban relations disagree on what Havana could gain by participating in or closing their eyes on the attacks.
"The alleged attacks took place while relations between our countries were at their best for more than half a century. Raúl Castro (bet) all his legacy on the normalization of diplomatic relations with the United States, "said Ric Herrero, political director of the Cuba Study Group.
"It makes no sense for the Cuban government, which Raúl still oversees as the First Secretary of the Communist Party, to undermine his own efforts to normalize trade and diplomatic relations with the United States, especially when his main benefactor , Venezuela, is on the verge of total collapse, "added Herrero.
The Russian economy suffers from sanctions imposed by the United States and other governments, Mora said, and the country is unable to provide the economic subsidies that Cuba needs.
But the Russians have pledged to help modernize the island's rail and port transportation systems, as well as its armed forces, and provide some of the oil that Venezuela was distributing on preferential terms, Sabatini said. States. "
On the other hand, the attacks began just after the election of Donald Trump to the presidency in November 2016, said Sabatini, and the Cubans "might have suspected that the commitment (under Obama) was going terminate. What did they have to lose? The Cuban economy is in need.
The most recent attacks, reported in April and May, have puzzled most analysts who say that at that time, the Cuban government should have determined who was behind the attacks and stopped them.
"It makes sense if they are unaware of how this is going," said American University professor William LeoGrande. "Note that there are also cases in China. China and Russia are rivals, not allies, but the Chinese have also failed to solve the mystery. I think Russia is using these attacks to try to create a gap between the United States and Cuba, the United States and China, in order to strengthen Russian influence. "
Several analysts have agreed that any response from the United States should be focused on Russia and not on Cuba if Moscow were the main culprit.
"If the Russians are responsible, it makes no sense to impose additional sanctions on Cuba, unless it can be shown that the Cubans have known and collaborated actively," said LeoGrande. "This is especially true because diplomatic relations with Cuba serve both US interests and Cuban interests, and US interests have already suffered from the downsizing of embassies.
"If the evidence against Russia is clear, Cuba could and should give credible assurances to the United States that it will not happen again," added LeoGrande.
For those who favor a US engagement policy with Cuba, the attacks on Havana only show what can happen when the United States withdraws from the Hemisphere.
"By canceling our policy of engagement, Trump and those who wish to isolate Cuba would effectively surrender our neighborhood to Russia and place their own narrow national political agendas before our national security," Herrero said. "Our country can not afford it."
Follow Nora Gámez on Twitter: @ngameztorres
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