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ANALYSIS / OPINION:
Russian President Vladimir Putin warns this week against a new arms race and threatens to target European countries likely to receive medium-range nuclear weapons, in response to the visit of National Security Adviser John R. Bolton this week in Moscow, confirming the intention of President Trump to withdraw. of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty of the Cold War.
At a press conference held Wednesday in Moscow after the departure of the US adviser, Putin promised a "very fast and very effective" response if MM. Bolton and Trump responded to their threat.
"If the US withdraws from the INF Treaty, the main question is what are they going to do with these [intermediate-range] missiles that will appear again? … "Putin said. "If they want to deliver them in Europe, our response will naturally have to take them into account, and the European countries that accept them, if things go so far, must understand that they are exposing their own territory to a risk of counter-attack. "
We know how this story ends.
The Russian economy is in limp, favored by the recovery of world oil prices. We guess how long it will last. The United States is now the world leader in energy and no longer relies on oil from the Middle East for their survival. While production from the Permian Basin continues to grow, encouraged by an energy-friendly white house, OPEC and Russia will lose their ability to set global energy pricing rates.
Closer to home for Mr. Putin, entrepreneurship in Russia is encircled by an oligarchy that takes for it everything that gets too big. The Kremlin's declared desire to acquire 30% of Yandex, Russia's largest Internet company, and to guarantee veto rights over important corporate decisions is a striking example. Although history has been slaughtered by state-run media, the denials sound hollow. As the world knows, the US economy is turning into gangbusters, even with the short-term – and much needed – stock market correction this week.
As for a new arms race, Mr. Trump said eloquently, "We have all the money. We will continue to build weapons until they stop what they do. "
The simplicity of this statement – and its undeniable – are simply beautiful.
The best result, of course, would be for the Russians to recover in accordance with their INF obligations. Even then, however, as Mr. Bolton pointed out in Moscow, China would remain an isolated case, not party to the treaty, nor limited in its ability to build the same class of weapons as the agreement was supposed to abolish.
The US economy is deep, broad and incredibly resilient. The Trump administration having removed its gloves, the sky is really the limit in terms of growth. Neither Russia nor China can follow. Putin's Russia must chain the United States through arms deals to avert the fate of the Soviet Union, whose president, the Russian president, described the breakup as a "geopolitical disaster."
The danger in this economic theory is, of course, the military side of the equation. If Beijing and Moscow feel too threatened by the rise of America (a rise that Mr. Trump has accelerated with his will to take precedence over China), then they could consider a military solution to balance the balance.
And here is where America is vulnerable. Because of the Obama years, the weaknesses of the US military are visible to everyone. Even with the increase in Trump's military budgets, it will take years for the new capabilities to become operational. Taiwan, the South China Sea, the east of Ukraine, the Baltic countries, the Russian "Near alien" – everything could become a turning point. Asymmetrical warfare is also an option.
The Pentagon will be seriously challenged to conduct low-intensity conflicts in Central Asia and the Middle East, while preparing to wage a world war against two peer-friendly opponents.
But I guess that is why they are earning a lot of money.
• L. Todd Wood is a former special operations helicopter pilot and trader in Wall Street bonds. He has collaborated with Fox Business, the Moscow Times, the National Review, the New York Post, and many other publications. You can contact him through his website, LToddWood.com.
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