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In the first two weeks of the 2018 season, it would be difficult to say that anyone other than quarterback Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs is the NFL MVP. . Mahomes was electric, throwing 10 touchdowns to lead the Chiefs to two wins, and he does not really seem to be stopped now.
On Sunday, Mahomes is in another high-level match, his third consecutive. After battling Philip Rivers in Week 1 and Ben Roethlisberger in Week 2, Mahomes will face 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, who was a popular off-season pick for Mahomes' current position. Things did not really work out the same way for Jimmy GQ, but he has plenty of time for him and his own first-rate offensive brain to put things in order.
Which teams of these quarters have the advantage and why Sunday afternoon in Kansas City (13h, Fox)?
Keep reading to find out.
When the leaders have the ball
In the last era, I used this specific space to talk about the surprising offensive of the Kansas City Chiefs, who had stormed the league by scoring 69 points and beating the Patriots and Eagles. Bowl – in the first two weeks of the season. The most shocking aspect of Kansas City's offensive explosion early in the season was that Alex Smith and his team broke a ton of big games. In two weeks, the Chiefs had recorded eight games of 20 yards or more. They did it on only 116 offensive shots, which earned them a participation rate of 6.9%, which, due to the small size of the samples associated with two-part starts is ranked eighth in the NFL. until 2016.
We are here a year later and, well, the leaders have made lukewarm warm beginnings last year. In the first two games of the 2018 season, the Chiefs have accumulated 14 players 20 yards or more. They did it only on 109 offensive strikes, which gave them a big game rate of 12.84%. The closest team is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 10.83%.
| 1 | KC | 109 | 14 | 12.84% |
| 2 | TB | 120 | 13 | 10.83% |
| 3 | LAIR | 136 | 14 | 10.29% |
| 4 | LAKE | 129 | 13 | 10.08% |
| 5 | ATL | 125 | 12 | 9.60% |
| 6 | LAR | 127 | 11 | 8.66% |
| 7 | NYJ | 122 | ten | 8.20% |
| 8 | OAK | 124 | ten | 8.06% |
| 9 | CIN | 120 | 9 | 7.50% |
| ten | SF | 121 | 9 | 7.44% |
Just as they were a year ago, the Chiefs were supported by an absurd quarter game, highlighted by some of the best league performances. But unlike Alex Smith, Patrick Mahomes, leaving in the first year, is known for his arm strength and his ability to play games ashore. It's just the degree of success that surprises and not the kind.
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Mahomes' 10 touchdown passes in the first two weeks of the season are an NFL record, and half of those touchdowns were on passes that ran at least 15 yards in the air. He has 12 out of 18 for an incredible 332 yards and five scores on such shots, which is good for a ridiculous 149.3 mark.
Mahomes has been dominant in just about every role imaginable, but a few of them stand out by the fact that it has allowed them to play well.
On the midfield pitches, according to Sports Info Solutions data, Mahomes is 23 out of 30 for 317 yards and seven scores. That means 30 of Mahomes' 55 passes went to the middle, now the most successful area of the field due to the dual evolution of the defenses and rules of the NFL.
Due to the high speed and athleticism of the leaders at each station, the teams often used the play area, giving Mahomes wider lanes than if each receiver had an assigned man. Against the zone blankets, he completed 31 of 41 passes for 279 yards and eight touchdowns.
Using all this talent to spread the defense as widely as possible has also been fruitful and it should come as no surprise that Mahomes has had incredible success working on the empty formations he used so often in Texas Tech; He completed 13 of 17 passes for 187 yards and three touchdowns when the Chiefs separated five receivers.
Of course, the most productive in the NFL is the first, largely because opposing teams often wait for a race. Once again, Mahomes was great passing the ball in the first few tries, completing 18 of 26 shots for 294 yards and two touchdowns. (That's almost half of his launches, by the way.)
On the other hand, he has only tried eight shots in the third row, which means he has rarely been in a position where he absolutely must play to extend his training. Once again, this puts the emphasis on Reid putting his young quarter in a position to succeed. And he succeeds in targeting a diverse range of smugglers whose skills complement each other and increase the specific strengths of Mahomes.
Tyreek Hill is arguably the fastest player in football, and his speed was used in the right way. Hill made two assists for big wins, but his other 14 targets were so deep that he still ranks seventh in the entire middle depth league. In addition, his 9.3 yards after the receiving take place fourth in the NFL, indicating that the leaders did a good job of giving him the ball in the open space to allow him to do some damage. with his legs. Similarly, while Sammy Watkins had a quiet 1 week, he exploded in Week 2 and now ranks 14th in the NFL in yards per goal and 12th in yards after receiving. Chris Conley was only targeted three times, but one of them resulted in a touchdown and all of its aspects allowed him to gain height and use his size and its track and field to enjoy smaller and slower players. The Chiefs also used the short wing Travis Kelce in various ways, having involved him in short, medium and long passes, while isolating him from linebackers and security guards, who generally have no chance of cover it in an open space. , strength and agility.
In a somewhat surprising way, all the success of Kansas City has not yet resulted in a slackening of the game. Kareem Hunt has an average of only 3.6 yards per run for two weeks and does not has not yet scored on the ground. Last year, at that time, he had an average of 7.6 per report and three points in peak. Part of Hunt's lack of success seems to come from leaders who do not do what they did with Mahomes, that is, by putting him in a position to succeed. Of his 34 portages to date, only 11 of them have come with leaders in 11 squad, their most effective alignment. He won 64 yards on those 11 races, an average of 5.8 per pop. His 23 other races have only gained 60 total yards, and that is what makes him fall. If the Chiefs start taking advantage of the softboxes by asking Hunt to perform 11 more often, he should see his efficiency increase. And if that happens … be careful.
Against San Francisco Sunday, it will be interesting to see if the Chiefs can continue to make big wins. The 49ers, despite facing the third-most games so far this season, have only allowed six games 20 yards or more this season. It's the fifth smallest in the NFL. Despite the relative lack of big games, the 49ers actually granted the eighths of yards per disc of any league defense, which means that they generally allowed teams to progress on the pitch. with short and intermediate earnings. This is not necessarily the strong point of Kansas City so far this season, but that does not mean that they can not do it against the Niners.
When the 49ers have the ball
As long as the Kansas City attack took place this season, the defense was almost as bad. The Chiefs rank last in the NFL in authorized yards per disc (46.2), first allotments (66) and the touchdown rate of the red zone (100%); second in the game authorized yards (6.9) and sack rate (1.8%); third to last place in the defensive penalties (19); and fourth to last place in the opponents turnover rate (4.5% of hard drives resulted in turnovers). The only thing that saved their lives was that they were pretty good in the third, but unfortunately they forced less than thirds less than every team in the league, except for the Titans.
Of course, all this gives the 49ers the opportunity to take advantage of the huge offensive potential that many of them have seen for them this season, but that they have not yet fully released.
Jimmy Garoppolo had a slow start to the season with only 45.5% of his passes against the Vikings in Week 1 while making three interceptions. He settled last week against the Lions, apart from a defense that was also victim of Sam Darnold in the first game. Fortunately for Garoppolo, the Kansas City defense has been very friendly, and on many throws that Garoppolo and Kyle Shanahan want to play.
For example, the Chiefs were destroyed by opposing tight ends, yielding 12 catches for 201 yards and a touchdown to oppose both ends. George Kittle was Garoppolo's first target so far this season with 13 games, and the two teams tied for two long touchdowns in the first week, but Kittle lost a goal and Garoppolo missed the launch. It would not be surprising to see Kittle manage to break free against a group of linebackers and security controllers who have experienced difficulties in terms of coverage, especially with All-Pro Eric Berry still missing.
The Chiefs also allowed wide receivers to catch more passes (44) than any other team in the league, while offering 414 yards and four touchdowns to these players. Garoppolo was and could still be out of Marquise Goodwin's No.1 scorer, but perhaps he could use this game as an opportunity to better fit with Pierre Garcon (six catches, 78 yards), Dante Pettis (three catches , 96 yards) and Trent Taylor. Otherwise, he will have many chances to hit Matt Breida and / or Alfred Morris out of the field, because – and this will shock you – the Chiefs also have trouble covering the halfbacks in the passing game. The opponents have caught 21 passes for 261 yards and a score so far, and the 49ers surely have not involved Breida in the passing game as they would like given his skills.
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Breida is leading the NFL in rushing yards in two weeks, by the way. Most of his production came on a 66-yard touchdown against Lions last week, but even by eliminating that race, he's averaging 5.6 yards per run. He has been overtaken by Alfred Morris so far this season, but given his dynamism, it is possible that Shanahan continues to work more often. He has a chance to make a big impression against Kansas City's defense this week considering the various ways he can break into a defense, and such a match could be a type of springboard game that will propel him into a leading role . It would be much more the style player Jerick McKinnon than the team imagined as being the runner next to Garoppolo this season, as opposed to Morris, who is more of a one-cut-and-go runner that does not bring much of value to the pass game
The key for the 49ers will be to avoid the turnovers, which they could not do against the Vikings. Kansas City forced very few turnovers in 2018 and allowed the teams to get on and off the field because of that. If Garoppolo simply takes what they give him and does not force things too much, he can be very productive. The question, of course, is whether this will be enough for the 49ers to keep pace with Mahomes and the rest of the explosive leader offensive.
Choice: Chiefs 34, 49ers 27
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