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The Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia keeps power in his home, but the growing outcry over the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi has diminished his stature – and influence – on the world stage, say analysts.
Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the 33-year-old heir to the most powerful Middle East throne, has been hailed by the international community for his willingness to remake conservative oil, while he was winning a power that previous leaders had not yet seen.
But the assassination of Khashoggi – a critic of the crown prince – last month in the Saudi Arabian consulate in Istanbul tarnished his overall image, although the kingdom firmly denied that his de facto ruler was involved.
"There is currently an atmosphere in which Saudi Arabia, the Saudi government and the prince are considered somewhat radioactive," said Hussein Ibish, a researcher at the Arab Institute of Gulf States in Washington.
"We do not know how long it will continue, but for the moment, Saudi Arabia is, if not exactly an international pariah, at least a corrupt entity," Ibish told AFP.
The global fallout on the assassination so far has not threatened to overthrow the prince, especially after his national crackdown on dissent, which effectively neutralized his political rivals and strengthened his grip on the military and security agencies.
In the kingdom, an absolute monarchy, only King Salman, aged 82, the prince's father, is able to oust him and he indicated that he wished he remained.
US President Donald Trump, a powerful ally, has accused the Saudis of massive "cover-up" but has stopped breaking ties with the prince, who, according to diplomats, could rule the kingdom for half a century ahead.
"He's not going anywhere," AFP Ali Shihabi, head of the Saudi Arabia think tank, told reporters.
– State & # 39; weakened & # 39; –
The threat of US sanctions still weighs on the kingdom, but analysts expect little punitive action against the world's leading oil exporter, who is also a major buyer of US arms and an essential ally against his regional rival, Iran.
"Even if it involves tougher penalties if Prince Mohammed's responsibility is proven, he will not only survive, but will also use the brutal reaction to further consolidate on the national territory," said Yezid Sayigh, a member of Carnegie Middle East. Center. in Beirut.
"When they are under pressure, autocratic rulers do not give up, they double their price, no matter the price, and Mohammed bin Salman is in a better position than most people."
There were rumors of plots with the return this week to Riyadh of high prince Ahmed bin Abdulaziz al-Saud, who recently ran into controversy after appearing critical of the king and crown prince.
His return after several months in London indicated possible efforts by the royal family to strengthen support for the monarchy in this time of crisis.
"Something is happening in circles of the ruling Al Saud family," said Gregory Gause, Saudi specialist at Texas A & M University.
"The return of Prince Ahmed from London proves it, but what is happening is opaque."
As outrage over Khashoggi's murder becomes globalized, world leaders might try to take advantage of Saudi Arabia's defensive stance to tackle concessions or gain the benefit of diplomatic negotiations.
"He (the prince) is weakened, and Saudi Arabia is weakened," Ibish said.
"Cooperation and partnerships with Saudi Arabia in general, the government in particular and, in particular, the Crown Prince, now represent an additional cost.
The Khashoggi crisis has shone the spotlight on other issues, such as the intervention of Saudi Arabia in neighboring Yemen, where its bombing campaign resulted in a military stalemate and what the humanitarian workers call a humanitarian disaster.
US Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo called this week for a ceasefire within one month, as well as the halting of air strikes by the Saudi-led coalition.
– "Hang out in the mud & # 39; –
There is also growing speculation about a behind-the-scenes engagement with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who previously pledged to reveal the "naked truth" about Khashoggi's murder, but did not until now not produced any firearms.
The surprisingly conciliatory tone of Prince Mohammed vis-à-vis Qatar – allied with Turkey – fueled such speculation last week after Saudi Arabia and its allies spent more than a year doing so. to respect an embargo against the tiny emirate rich in gas.
Analysts say this may well be the first step to accede to Erdogan's wish that Saudi Arabia eliminate its paralyzing blockade of Qatar.
Back home, Saudi nationalists have sought to gather around the prince with zany poems on social media, according to political figures, as expected by public protests such as a glitzy fight show in the capital Friday. .
The assassination of Khashoggi seems far away for many Saudis, and their opinions seem to be influenced by suggestions from local media that it would be a foreign plot to harm the prince.
But many others are shocked by the global reaction.
"The murder of a journalist should naturally arouse indignation, but many critics of the kingdom seem to want to drag Saudi Arabia into the mud," said a Saudi political analyst at AFP. .
"This murder is an aberration that will inevitably lead to serious introspection."
Saudi Prince Mohammed bin Salman is the heir to the most powerful throne of the Middle East
A protester holds a poster showing the murdered journalist Jamal Khashoggi in front of the Saudi consulate in Istanbul on October 25, 2018
