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Saudi Arabia's top government-funded think tank is studying the possible effects of a breakup of OPEC, a remarkable research effort for a country that has dominated the oil cartel for nearly 60 years.
While the think tank president, Adam Sieminski, said the study had been made by a senior adviser familiar with the project. Depending on the findings, the study could offer a defense of the cartel and the Saudi role in it.
The research project does not reflect an active debate within the government over whether to leave the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, according to people familiar with the matter.
Senior Saudi officials see the study as a high-priority economic-policy inquiry, according to these people. Mr. Sieminski said that it is the study, and that the analysis is not uncommon.
The report is part of a wider rethinking among senior government officials in Saudi Arabia about OPEC, according to the people familiar with the matter. Officials are grappling with the assumption-shared opinion that the senior Saudi adviser said.
In this context, the study is seen among senior officials in the exercise of the market in such markets that it is likely that OPEC loses sway and disbands, the adviser said.
For decades, Saudi Arabia and its fellow members have insisted on the organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is a crucial global economic institution-a forum by which big producers can mete out oil production to keep prices too low or too high.
Criticism of the United States, and Mr. Trump has been outspoken in his condemnation. A group of U.S. lawmakers has pushed forward legislation that would effectively label OPEC an illegal cartel.
The proposed legislation, dubbed NOPEC, has withered during several U.S. administrations. Backers said they think it might be better under Mr. Trump.
OPEC, "the senior adviser said. "You also have a NOPEC act being considered" in Washington.
United States of America Disclosure OPEC, Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabia and the United States of America adviser.
Those issues have grown in Saudi Arabia in recent years. Russia and a group of allied producers joined OPEC in a deal about two years ago. The combined group's leverage over global production succeeded in so much the face of the group. The two sides are slated to meet again this weekend in Abu Dhabi.
Despite the impact on global markets, OPEC members, who have complied with each other by decision makers in Riyadh and Moscow.
Spokesmen for the Saudi government and the energy ministry did not answer requests for comment.
Saudi Arabia's oil ministry has long been under the control of OPEC as its de facto head. Above, Oil Minister Khalid Al-Falih, right, speaks at a meeting in Algiers, Algeria, in September.
Photo:
Anis Belghoul / Associated Press
The think tank, Riyadh-based King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center, or Kapsarc, bills itself as an independent research institution. Its staff advises dominating Saudi agencies such as Saudi Aramco and the Saudi energy ministry.
Mr. Sieminski said the study was one of the previous ones that looked at the role of OPEC's spare capacity in stabilizing oil markets. The earlier work concluded that the absence of such a cushion would be more important for the global economy, "he said.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who has managed to reshape his country's economy, society and its wider role in the world. Prince Mohammed pushes an initial public offering of Saudi Aramco, the country's state-owned oil company-an effort that people familiar with the matter say has since stalled.
The IPO plan was a pillar in what the crown prince has called a bigger plan to modernize the Saudi economy. He has pushed big investments in global technology and finance, while the country has tried hard.
These are the plans of the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia in the United States of America, and later on, Saudi Arabia "at the highest levels" were behind it. Saudi Arabia has claimed rogue elements killed Mr. Khashoggi, without the knowledge of the Crown Prince.
The OPEC study aims to "assess the short / medium-term consequences of a dissolution of OPEC," according to an overview of The Wall Street Journal. It is intended to determine how the global oil market, and Saudi finance, would look, "according to the overview.
The overview describes two scenarios to be investigated. 1. All big oil producers, including Saudi Arabia, act competitively-fighting each other for market share; OPEC plays today. OPEC plays today. OPEC plays today. OPEC plays today. OPEC plays today.
Two prominent Saudi government advisers, both central to the formation of the kingdom's oil policy, are scheduled to meet researchers on the weekly project, according to the overview. Mr. Sieminski said contacts with the Saudi energy ministry were to provide data for the study.
The study comes at a time of severe tension inside OPEC, a fractious group on the best of days. Relations between longtime regional rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran, two of the group's most important members, have discussed the subject of the Vienna-based cartel.
Saudi Arabia is by far the most important OPEC member, accounting for more than 10 million barrels a day of the group's collective 33 million barrels a day of output. Saudi Arabia's oil ministry has long been de facto head.
The kingdom has reached to play its leadership role, emphasizing what it and fellow members say is the consensus-driven decision making process. That has given individual members, including Saudi Arabia, some degree of cover from critics.
U.S. sanctions targeting Iranian oil exports have inflamed recent OPEC debates, with Iran's delegation accusing Riyadh of doing America's bidding inside the cartel. Saudi Arabian officials have expressed exasperation at times of what they call Iran's intransigence during what is supposed to be nonpolitical, oil-market debates.
Write to Summer Said at [email protected] and Benoit Faucon at [email protected]
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