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The Crimson Tide have almost all secured a playoff spot. (John David Mercer / USA TODAY Sports)
Slim-down Saturday? Simplify Saturday? Whatever its name, it was undoubtedly the most important Saturday of the season having changed landscape. Four of the top 10 PA have lost, including Georgia, one of the country's top four teams by consensus.
The biggest change is the bigger gap between the playoff favorites and their opponents. This means that the best teams have a bigger margin of error – most might give up a game while still alive. This means that there are fewer places available for other teams. In spite of all the chaos we saw on Saturday, all we have left is a better order.
[[[[Saturday's upheavals give hope to those who were hopeless
Two of the four playoff places are virtually over, while another is tied to the Big Ten title race. All the other contenders compete for a place. There is still a lot of drama, but probably in one corner of the playoff landscape.
Location # 1: Alabama (playoff probability: 88%)
With five games remaining in the regular season (as well as the SEC title), it is safe to place Alabama on the list of the top four teams on the committee. Alabama was just dominant on the way to a 7-0 start. The tide has not yet played significantly in the second half, with an average lead of 32 points at the break. Their 39-10th Missouri Collage # 19 was the best performance of the weekend. For the third time (!) In seven weeks, they ranked at the top of our list.
While Alabama will probably win (59%), its domination means the luxury of a defeat to give. As last year, the Tide could enter without winning his conference: losing the league match of the SEC, and he still has 77% to win; lose against LSU and fail to win the title match. They are 57%.
Location # 2: Clemson (Probability for the playoffs: 90%)
Clemson was not as dominant as Alabama, but our model sees them as the team most likely to qualify for the playoffs. Why? You can be second in Alabama and still be pretty good. Although we make it a 4-point outsider in Alabama, we would also make it a 5-point favorite in Georgia, 8 in Ohio and 14 on Notre Dame. We think it will be clearer after the invasion of North Carolina weekend # 22, undefeated state.
Clemson also has the second most easy-to-follow program of all competitors and will be a two-digit favorite in the ACC title game. The Tigers can even give up the ACC title game and still have a 74% chance of winning it, because of the chaos caused by the Pac-12 and Big 12. Of course, more likely than not otherwise Clemson simplifies things by winning (65 percent).
Location # 3: Ohio State or Michigan (playoff probability: 78%)
Ohio State is the favorite of a powerful Big Ten, but it's no longer the best team in the conference. After two consecutive wins in wins over Indiana and Minnesota, the Buckeyes dropped to sixth in our standings, two places below Michigan's loss.
Michigan led Wisconsin into one of the most anticipated clashes of the season, reaffirming Eastern dominance and paving the way for an epic showdown in Columbus next month. With Penn State at Michigan State, the hopes of Big Ten rest mainly on these two rivals.
[[[[The biggest winners and losers of Saturday]
Ohio State is one of the few teams to be able to afford a loss. If they stumble against Purdue this weekend, we will always see them in playoffs if they win. And as for Alabama last year, they could beat everyone except Michigan, miss the title game of the conference and still get the committee's attention. This is the benefit of the gap created when so many other suitors have fallen back.
Location # 4: The best of the rest
It's basically a three-horse race between Notre Dame, Georgia and the Big 12 champion.
Notre Dame is the undisputed leader at the moment (49%), but it is more likely that they do not win (68%) and we have more suspense. If they manage to get closer to the match they made against No. 52 Pitt, what will happen when they go to US 26 (and will improve)? ?
If Georgia beats Alabama to win the SEC, they are certainly present. It's a big challenge, but also in a very long time. The rivals in the East Division, Florida and Kentucky, will make it interesting by then, but we think the playoff conversation will include the Bulldogs until the SEC match.
The Big 12 is not out yet (48 percent to play in the playoffs). Despite the stalemate at the top of the conference standings, we continue to make Oklahoma number 5 the class of the conference and the favorite (57%). Texas, number 16, has already beaten the Sooners once, but it will have to go through a calendar of conference still delicate to have the chance to do it again in the match for the title. The favorite Wildcard of all, West Virginia, came back to reality last weekend with a shockingly bad performance against the state of Iowa and is a distant third in our conference projections. .
Do you want a darker horse? LSU (5%) and Florida (2%) could one way or another maintain their role, or Washington (4%) could get help from across the country. But they are far from a long list of teams vying for, unfortunately, what looks like one place.
Read more about The Post:
U-Va. makes a major turnaround and raises the return to Miami's home
"You can not do this to our kids": Navy coaches marvel at the defeat 24-17
Maryland keeps the unfortunate Rutgers at eight yards and clears five passes
Alabama, faithful to tradition, brings back 'Dixieland Delight'
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