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Tracy Jan
Reporter covering the intersection of race and economy
The battle for the appointment of Judge Brett M. Kavanaugh has instilled new volatility in mid-term elections, reshaping races across the country and reinforcing the already bitter tone of partisanship for the last four-week period leading up to Nov. 6. .
Numerous uncertainties remain, not least because of the rapid succession of successive crises that have marked President Trump's tenure, but for the moment, the Kavanaugh saga seems to be pushing home-shopping for the benefit of Democrats, even though it has improved Republicans . chances of maintaining control of the Senate.
This division stems from the race composition and political geography of the most competitive battles. House contests should already be decided this year by suburban women, who have moved away from the president during her tenure at the White House and seem to be the most sympathetic to Christine Blasey Ford, the woman who testified that Kavanaugh Had been assaulted when both were teenagers.
But most of this year's Senate competitions are still held in red states, and as Republicans rallied to Kavanaugh's side, the chances of democratic turmoil have diminished, at least for now.
Democrats worry more and more about keeping their seats in Indiana, Missouri and Montana and seem to be losing ground with regard to potential traffic jams in Texas and Tennessee. Senator Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota, one of the most vulnerable Democrats, announced Thursday that she would vote against Kavanaugh. She is far behind her Republican opponent in new polls. Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia, another vulnerable democrat, reached political survival when he became the last and only Democratic senator to announce a vote for Kavanaugh.
But in the House, Cook's political report and other predictors have moved more than half a dozen seats in the Democratic leadership in recent days and Republican agents are gearing up for a Democratic money assault they call " a green wave. The governor's races – in which the Democrats are trying to recapture the territory they have lost in recent years, particularly in the Midwest – also tend to be left-wing.
"There is nothing better than a good old Supreme Court fight to polarize the electorate – and that's what we've seen in recent weeks," said David Wasserman, editor-in-chief of the non-political report. Cook supporter. "The Kavanaugh record has almost acted as a juicer to further separate the red and blue elements from the electorate."
The Supreme Court battle swept the campaign in a way that had never been addressed before, engulfing topics that Democrats want to address (health care) or those that Republicans advocate for (cuts to 39, taxes and a booming economy). In a season defined by enough feminine energy – with a white male rage and misfortune that goes back to 2016 – Kavanaugh's confirmation hearings were explosive on all fronts.
In recent days, Trump has fiercely defended Kavanaugh and made fun of his accusers, candidates have posted new ads on their posts, debates have revolved around the nomination and both parties have felt the political benefit of what it was already accumulated in the form of a dependent election on each side. to motivate his base.
The division into separate camps was highlighted by protesters inside the US Capitol – but it also manifests itself more subtly in the rest of the country, from store parking lots to Fargo, New Jersey, at the bars of Bedminster, New Jersey.
Democrats have always faced a tough Senate card – six of the competitive seats they occupy are in the states won by Trump, and five of those states that it counts by at least 19 points – but their path is now more dangerous.
In North Dakota, television screens across the state were blinking with commercials attacking Heitkamp and defending his record. At VFW Post 762 in Fargo, the drinkers turned away from the happy hour drink draw to watch consecutive political spots.
Just hours before Heitkamp announced his opposition to Kavanaugh, voters like Stephanie Beyah still weighed in their support for the outgoing president based on what the senator could do.
"I think it would be awful [to have Kavanaugh on the Supreme Court]"Beyah, a young woman in her thirties, said pushing a shopping cart through a Targetparking lot." Just beyond the allegations, the way he described himself the week Last was terrible.This is not a place on the school board.You choose a guy who will change people's lives. "
Troy Reich, a beefy man wearing a flannel shirt juggling a stack of boxes as he entered the US post office in Fargo's downtown, claimed he was a strong supporter of the opponent of Heitkamp, Rep. Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.). But the Kavanaugh audiences have increased his anger against the Democrats, and he thinks the drama will affect tight races like the Senate contest.
"It was a total witch hunt," Reich said. "I think it was ridiculous, and now they have not proved anything yet … it was totally partisan, and I think it will come back on them."
In Indiana, where Democratic Senator Joe Donnelly is fighting for re-election in a state that Trump won by 19 points, the Kavanaugh conflict has angered conservative voters who feel victims of partisan slander and defamation. Unfounded accusations about what amounts to schoolboy antics. said Brian Howey, the author of a website on Indiana politics.
"Dr. Ford's allegations, they just launched a homemade bomb in this race," said Howey. "Now we are waiting to see who will be carried away by the shrapnel."
Recent polls point to a heat wave between Donnelly, who announced his opposition to Kavanaugh last week, and his Republican opponent Mike Braun.
Tim Chapman, executive director of Heritage Action for America, a conservative political organization, said the Kavanaugh hearing had "changed the game" for red state democrats like Donnelly.
"He's really in a difficult situation," Chapman said. "He's going to vote against Kavanaugh, so for us it's becoming a real problem that we can drive from here to November and remind people that he was on that side."
Kate Oehl, Donnelly's press secretary, said the senator would devote next month to health care, which according to his campaign, is a more important issue for voters.
For Republicans, a major challenge will be to keep their base upset by the way Kavanaugh was treated, even if he was about to win. Democrats believe that the advantage of enthusiasm will be downgraded.
"On our side, the indignation will last for years," said Brian Fallon, a Democratic consultant. "And it will be very pronounced, especially among female voters who are already the backbone of the resistance. . . . It will be the year of the female redux. "
Democrats believe the Kavanaugh's hearings could help them in Nevada – where Rep. Jacky Rosen is running against Republican Dean Heller for his seat – and in Arizona, where representatives Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) And Martha McSally ( R-Ariz.) Senator Jeff Flake (D), who has chosen to stop running, is in a tight race.
The dynamics of the races in the House are completely different because of their political terrain. According to Cook's political report, of the 68 races in the House considered competitive, only 16 are held in states where the Senate is a competitive country.
"It's unheard of," said Wasserman. "We just have this huge discrepancy between the partisanship of the most competitive Senate seats and the seats in the House."
Democrats feel confident of winning a 23-yard net needed to control the House. Already, Republicans are drawing money from several districts that they initially hoped would be within their reach.
Republicans suffer from particular problems among highly educated voters living outside urban centers such as Kansas City, Philadelphia and Denver.
The Congressional National Republican Committee has mobilized about $ 1 million in planned spending from Kansas' 3rd congressional district, where Representative Kevin Yoder is running for re-election. Outside groups also drew announcements from districts held by representatives Barbara Comstock (R-Va.) And Mike Coffman (R-Colo.), Which indicates that they no longer consider these races as competitive.
"If the Democratic base is more and more excited, it may need to see a doctor," said Corry Bliss, who heads the Congressional Leadership Fund, which is aligned with Speaker Paul D. Ryan (Wis.), To preserve the majority of the GOP. "Last week, the results of our polls have undeniably improved. Republican intensity and excitement are at its height. We must now maintain the trend over the next few weeks. "
Countervailing forces could be observed in the suburbs outside Newark, where Republican Leonard Lance is seeking his sixth term in a district that Hillary Clinton had elected in 2016.
"Frankly, it's a stimulus," 58-year-old Janice McLean told a Democrats-led demonstration in New Jersey.
"Republican women are motivated," said Marlene Sincaglia, a retired French teacher at a college a few hours later and a few miles away.
Lance's opponent, Democrat Tom Malinowski, former Assistant Secretary of State for President Obama, issued an announcement on Sept. 26 featuring a soundtrack of Lance appearing to question Ford's allegations that Kavanaugh was the only one in the world. would have assaulted.
"I think Judge Kavanaugh is a brilliant judge and I tend not to believe the accusations," Lance said on the clip.
Lance told The Post that he found credible Ford's testimony – as well as Kavanaugh's – and said he was among the Republicans who had called for an FBI investigation.
The protesters, who often went to his district office to protest against Trump, are now focusing on Kavanaugh.
In Westfield, New Jersey, a few days ago, a 2-year-old girl on her father's shoulders wore a scrawled message on the back of a Pampers box: "Believe Women." A 61-year-old artist waved a fluorescent pink panel "Hell No Kava-No" in his left hand and a tambourine in his right. Another woman who said that her university-aged daughter was raped in her first year of schooling had a banner reading "I believe Dr. Christine Blasey Ford!"
Throughout the Berkeley Heights district, Lance mingled with voters who nibbled raw vegetables at a reception before giving the kickoff to a scout awards dinner. Some of the Republican voters have been mobilized to support Kavanaugh.
"I'm looking at this and I'm scared for my 20-year-old son," said Jeanne Kingsley, a Republican Berkeley Heights advisor and mother of two sons and two daughters. "I called him and said," Do not be alone with a woman. We are now in an environment where someone can say what he wants and not have to back it up. "
Margaret Illis, another woman of the event, has two sons and two girls aged 17 to 24. She fears for her daughters.
"I do not know a single woman of my generation who has not been sexually assaulted, either on the train in New York or by the boss of a fast-food restaurant at age 16 or colleague who's was approaching too close to the elevator, "said Illis, a former designer and analyst for a software development company," I really thought the world had changed, and now I'm opening my eyes to the fact that this it's not the case. "
Illis, a recently registered Democrat who considers himself independent, said he has voted for Lance several times in the past. She is now considering voting for Malinowski because "I want my daughters to have a better future."
"After the Kavanaugh hearings, people are determined to do more to try to overthrow the House," said Illis, who attends parties at home.
"I am passionate now, she said, to change representatives in Congress."
Laura Meckler contributed to this report.
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