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Republicans are increasingly worried about the Senate's loss of control as President Trump's approval rate drops and Democrats gain ground in major races.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) On Tuesday tipped off some of the most dubious notes of Trump's presidency, saying Republicans would keep the upper house of Congress by telling reporters: majority. "
His comments come as Republican strategists and officials worry about a new round of private polls on Senate races, while public polls point to further erosion of the polls. US approval by Trump. The "sinking" was the way a prominent strategist described the situation, adding an explosive to emphasize the gravity of the party's problems.
One of the most unexpected fights is that of Texas GOP, where Senator Ted Cruz is trying to push the Democratic Republic of Beto O'Rourke. Republicans are so afraid of losing the seat that they are diverting resources to Texas, a sensitive point in the White House after animosity between Cruz and Trump during the 2016 presidential primary.
Beyond Texas, Senator Joe Donnelly, once considered the most vulnerable Democratic candidate, has opened a slight advantage over Republican businessman Mike Braun in Indiana, while hoping to renounce Senator Joe Manchin III (DW .Go.). The Trump state gained by 43 percentage points and collapsed with the GOP's trust in Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, the Republican candidate.
Events mark the greatest danger for the majority of Republicans (51-49). Losing the Senate was once an unthinkable prospect as the GOP sought to secure mid-term seats and party control over the House was seriously compromised; the chamber was seen as the last line of defense.
At the start of Trump's term, some Republicans were considering enough victories for a 60-seat majority at the buccaneer's test, believing that they could oust many of the 10 Democrats in the winning states in 2016 A few weeks ago, Republicans were talking more assuredly about rollover seats.
But less than two months before the November 6 elections, Republicans scarcely mention Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania – said Trump – as an opportunity to eliminate a Democrat, while McConnell reiterated that nine seats , plus Texas, were at stake.
"Arizona, Nevada, Tennessee, Montana, North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, West Virginia and Florida. All too close to call, and each of them like a knife is fighting in an alley; I mean, just a fight in each of those places, "McConnell told reporters in Louisville.
Republicans could still emerge with an increase in their numbers if GOP candidates eventually win in many of these tight races, with Democrats being seriously concerned about Florida, where Republican Gov. Rick Scott runs even against the Democratic senator Bill Nelson.
The terrible warnings could also serve as a warning to GOP donors for the last eight weeks of the campaign.
But for the GOP, the mere fact of retaining its majority – which had been darkened after a dazzling surprise at the Alabama special election last year – seemed like a more difficult goal today. the president and GOP candidates are slow to gain ground.
A national survey conducted by Washington Post-ABC News in late August found that only 38 percent of voters approved of Trump's work, compared to 60 percent of those disapproved. His approval rate in April was 44%.
These difficulties have become clear in Texas, where Cruz fights for political survival against O'Rourke, an emerging Liberal star who collects record sums and draws large crowds into a ruby-red state. By the end of June, O'Rourke had close to $ 14 million worth of money for $ 9 million, according to reports from the Federal Election Commission.
The harsh realities of Texas sparked an unexpected alliance between Cruz and the Republicans, he spent years feuding against a senator and a presidential candidate – including Trump and McConnell.
The sudden cooperation underscores how the GOP fears losing Texas. Shockwaves are felt far beyond the state because its many expensive media markets could force the party to spend money there that it will have to subtract from the hopes of the GOP in other battlefields.
"Other campaigns are going to be shortened because of the dull nature of the campaign," said a White House official about the Cruz operation.
McConnell recently assured Cruz in a private conversation that resources would be there for him, according to people familiar with the conference. Trump plans to campaign for Cruz in Texas next month.
According to Chris Pack, a spokesman for the group, the Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC headed by a former McConnell collaborator, recently reviewed Texas, conducting surveys and summarizing its findings in a note.
The organization also announced Tuesday a seven-figure advertising campaign in five other states. The ads target mainly Democratic candidates.
A Cruz-McConnell partnership would have been unimaginable when Cruz called McConnell a liar in the Senate in July 2015 about the legislative strategy. A Cruz-Trump alliance would have seemed equally unlikely after Cruz called Trump a "pathological liar" and refused to support him at the Republican National Convention.
Beyond Trump and McConnell, Cruz angered other Republicans with his unsuccessful efforts to withdraw funds from the Affordable Care Act in 2013, which forced a 16-day partial government shutdown and his support for groups
"They work together for political reasons," said Rick Tyler, a former spokesman for Cruz. "These people do not like it."
Cruz spoke of his fate at a luncheon for Republican senators in early summer, according to people familiar with his remarks. A GOP senator said Cruz was trying to convince them that he was facing a "real race", citing polls and noting that O'Rourke was amassing money.
Like other people interviewed for this story, the senator talked about anonymity to describe private conversations.
In Texas on Tuesday, Cruz told reporters that he was eager to debate five times with O & Rourke. "In general, current officials do not suggest much debate. They do not want to debate. But the reason I proposed it, I think we owe it to Texas voters.
Senator John Cornyn (R-Tex.), Whom Cruz refused to approve in 2014, is organizing a fundraiser for Cruz in Washington next month.
Public polls have shown that Cruz leads O'Rourke by a single figure. David McIntosh, president of the long-defending anti-tax group Club for Growth, said the donors he had met with were caught off guard by the narrowness of the contest.
"I think, especially in Texas, it's like," Oh yes, I did not think it would be a big race. Yes, we must win it. I will help you do that. "And the same thing all over the country," said McIntosh.
Speaking to reporters Tuesday in Louisville, McConnell called the race "competitive," but said he expected Cruz to prevail. An advantage for any Republican in the state is the ability of voters to simply vote for a party ticket.
Despite Trump's polls, GOP strategists still view the president as the most effective weapon in the fight to keep control of the Senate. They say his trips to the Red States with prestigious competitions, such as Montana, North Dakota, Missouri and Indiana, have stimulated their candidates.
The new Indiana Leadership Fund advertisement begins with Trump images praising Braun and Braun who pledge to fight for the president.
The question of whether elks will last is another issue that party leaders are struggling with in the last two months before the November election. A continuous stream of explosive stories about the dissension within the Trump administration and the investigation of Robert S. Mueller III, special advocate, takes place over the fall.
Republican strategists are keeping a close eye on suburban areas, where they fear anger at Trump will trigger a reaction against GOP candidates. The suburbs occupy a more prominent place in the battle for the House, with many rural states ready to rule on Senate challenges. But Senate strategists are always aware of the challenges they can pose.
One of the positives for the GOP was the appointment of Brett M. Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. The Republican leaders are confident that they will confirm this month, giving Trump and his party a landmark achievement just before the vote begins.
Until then, they will face a political storm that has increasingly fueled comparisons between the private sector and the GOP in 2006, an election year for Democrats. In this perceived danger, every competitive Senate race becomes more critical.
Scott Clement and Seung Min Kim contributed to this report.
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