Soyuz rocket failure could leave the crewed space station

But Thursday's failed launch of a Russian rocket – which provides astronauts with the only way to get to the station – raised fears that crews would be forced to abandon the $ 100-billion laboratory complex early in the day. next year if the rocket problem was not resolved quickly.

The Soyuz space shuttle, which is to take three members of the Expedition 57 team to his home, will have to leave the station by early January, unless the officials give up the usual limits of the time he can spend in orbit.

If no new crew arrives before that date, the station could remain empty for the first time in almost two decades.

October 12th: US and Russian astronauts reach Russia after an emergency landing after the failure of launching a rocket on the ISS

"No longer having people permanently in space would be a psychological and technical hard blow," said Wayne Hale, a space industry consultant and former NASA shuttle program manager. "Unveiling the station is a topic that has been discussed and planned, but it's not really a good option."

Members of the Expedition One team are about to eat fresh fruit in the form of oranges aboard the Zvezda service module of the International Space Station in Earth orbit. In the photo, on the left, the cosmonaut Yuri Gidzenko, commander of Soyuz; Astronaut William Shepherd, Mission Commander; and cosmonaut Sergei Krikalev, flight engineer. They arrived at the space station in November 2000. (Photo: NASA)

Until now, Russian officials have said to expect quick results after an investigation into the malfunctions of the Soyuz FG rocket launched Thursday in Kazakhstan at 16:40 EDT with the Soyuz capsule carrying astronaut Nick Hague of NASA and cosmonaut Alexey Ovchinin.

The two men survived unharmed and safely landed under parachutes after their capsule escaped from the rocket two minutes after launch and flew off for a ballistic flight. They returned to Russia on Friday.

The focus is on a separation issue with one of the rocket's first four rocket propellers, which could have struck and damaged the second stage, causing its engines to shut down.

"This only reaffirms that it is a dangerous business," said Reid Wiseman, NASA's Deputy Chief Astronaut. "It's a good system, it's a reliable system. I have full confidence in Russia and in the quality of its work. "

Prior to the incident, the current station team – NASA's Chancellor Serena Auñón, Alexander Gerst of the European Space Agency and Sergey Prokopyev of Roscosmos – was due to return to Earth on December 13, and another crew of three was to be launched in December 20. Keeping this schedule now would be remarkable.

The program could first pilot a Progress cargo ship, which uses a very similar rocket. He might also consider launching a Soyuz without anyone on board to give a new ride to the resort team.

Soyuz is generally limited to about 210 days in orbit due to a problem related to the degradation of hydrogen peroxide in propellants.

If the astronauts eventually abandon the station in January, the current and former directors of the space station say that the space station could fly unattended for a long time.

TO CLOSE

NASA's Nickeye and Alexey Ovchinin of Roscosmos were heading to the International Space Station on a Soyuz rocket when a reminder failed.
USA TODAY & # 39; HUI

"I would not worry about that unless you decide to stay that way for more than a year, and then I'll start twisting my hands a bit," said Mike Suffredini, a former manager. from the NASA station program that now runs Axiom Space. , a startup that designs private stations. "Even if they have to bring the crew home because the Soyuz delay has expired, they know how to do it and the vehicle will be fine until you have cascading breakdowns in one system."

The ground crews control the flight of the station every day, so that it does not change. The departing crew would shut down various systems prior to departure, including life support systems.

Suffredini said the engineers would carefully study the procedure for properly shutting down the systems so they can be turned on again when the crew returns.

October 11th: Astronauts are in good condition after an emergency landing, according to NASA

Then comes the nightmarish scenario: cascading breakdowns cause the station to fall. Space ships can not hold onto it. Solar panels are no longer directed correctly. The batteries begin to die. The football stadium, nearly one million pounds long, is starting an uncontrolled comeback that could rain debris in populated areas.

"They will be reluctant to evacuate the crew," said Leroy Chiao, a former NASA astronaut who spent more than five months on the station in 2004-05. "I'm sure they are rigorously examining how long they can keep the Soyuz up there."

Otherwise, the options are limited.

The commercial crew capsules that Boeing and SpaceX are developing for NASA will not be ready to fly Florida astronauts until next summer.

NASA's independent Aerospace Safety Advisory Group, formed after the Apollo 1 fire, has already expressed concern over the rushed commissioning of these vehicles, which could compromise safety.

Following the loss of Shuttle Columbia and its crew during the fall of 2003, Russian rockets and Soyuz pods allowed the crews to reach the station and keep it active. It's been more than seven years since NASA's last mission, but there is no alternative.

"With this problem now, it's obvious that we no longer have this redundancy, at least until we fly with a SpaceX or Boeing vehicle, hopefully next year," Scott Kelly said. former NASA astronaut who lived near the station one year in 2015-16. "We've lost that ability for a while. It's a concern, absolutely. "

But Kelly has already seen Russian investigations unfold quickly, including one in the failure of Progress while living on the station. The Progress fled a little more than two months later.

The prospect of an unprepared station is therefore a risk for the moment, but it is difficult to say what its probability is.

"The Russians are very good at this," Kelly said. "I suspect that they will understand what has happened, put in place new security measures and get started as soon as possible, before this other Soyuz is exhausted into orbit."