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Spaniards are expected to have the longest life expectancy in the world by 2040 – beating Japan in second place – largely because of the way they eat, according to the authors of the most comprehensive study on the burden world of the disease.
In the years to come, the biggest threats to our health and longevity will be obesity, high blood pressure and blood sugar, smoking, and alcohol consumption, according to the Institute. for Health Metrics and Evaluation in Seattle, USA, which published the forecasts. .
"Spain is doing really well in these areas," said Dr. Christopher Murray, director of IHME at the University of Washington, "although tobacco is an area in which they could be But the current life expectancy is very good. "Spaniards, who should have an average life expectancy of 85.8 years, are achieving particularly satisfactory results in terms of diet, he said The Spanish Ministry of Health funded the Predimed study, the largest survey of the benefits of the Mediterranean diet.
Japan, which enjoys the longest life expectancy on the planet, is about to lose its crown, according to the study Global Burden of Disease published online by the IHME and in the medical journal Lancet, with an expectation average life slightly below that of the world. at 85.7 years old. "The men are not doing very well," said Murray. "Smoking is probably a part of that and obesity has increased for men, but not really for women."
The data from the study, which are continuously updated with research and statistics from all countries of the world. For the first time, the team predicted not only life expectancy and the most likely health outcomes for 195 countries and territories, but also the best and worst case scenarios.
"In my mind, the difference between better and worse results is what governments and the global community could achieve," said Murray. The data demonstrates what will happen if policies are adopted to reduce smoking, improve drinking water supplies, reduce obesity or fight against air pollution.
The authors say that all countries will probably experience a slight increase in life expectancy, but that this increase will be slower than before. The United Kingdom is expected to rise from 26th to 23rd in the rankings, and life expectancy will rise from 80.8 years in 2016 to 83.3 years in 2040.
Dashboard of the overall life expectancy of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
The top 10 causes of death in the UK will be ischemic heart disease, Alzheimer's disease, lung cancer, lower respiratory tract infections, COPD, colon and rectal cancer, stroke, cancer breast, prostate cancer and pancreatic cancer. But there is "considerable potential to change the downward trajectory of health" by addressing key risk factors, education levels and income, the authors explain.
The United States will fall 20 places, from 43rd to 64th place, while the other countries have flown. The average life of 78.7 years will only increase slightly to reach 79.8 years.
The United States has been collapsing for some time now in the Life Expectancy League, Murray added recently compounded by the impact of deaths related to the opioid crisis. "We are really seeing this slowdown in progress. There is a lot of literature on why the US has progressively underperformed Europe, "he said. Nothing in the trends indicates that it would change. Among the very leading causes of death, such as heart disease, chronic respiratory disease and trauma, "trends are not as favorable as those observed in Australia, New Zealand or Western Europe"
Murray said he was disappointed with the persistent gap in life expectancy between the top and bottom performers. "I hoped that by 2040 we would have more convergence than we see and that the world would be less unequal," he said.
Lesotho, a country in southern Africa, is expected to settle for 57.3 years, the Central African Republic 58.4, Zimbabwe 61.3 years and Somalia 63.6 years. The IHME team warns that the resurgence of HIV / AIDS could further reduce life expectancy.
"Inequalities will continue to be important," said Murray. "The difference between the" better "and" worst "scenarios will be smaller but will still be important. In many countries, too many people will continue to earn relatively low incomes, remain poorly educated and die prematurely. But countries could move faster by helping people cope with major risks, including smoking and poor nutrition. "
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