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(CNN) – Spain will overtake Japan's long-standing position at the top of the world's life expectancy table by 2040, while the US is on the verge of a fall ranking, according to a new study.
Spaniards will live on average 85.8 years, slightly less than expected life expectancy in Japan (85.7 years), Singapore (85.4 years) and Switzerland (85.2 years).
The United States will experience the largest decline in ranking of all high-income countries from 43rd in 2016 to 64th in 2040, with an average life expectancy of 79.8 years.
The United States will be overtaken by China, which gains 29 places in 39th place.
Americans will live an average of 1.1 years longer in 2040 compared to 2016, well below the average global increase of 4.4 years over the same period.
"Whether we see significant progress or stagnation depends on the quality or inadequacy of health systems on the key factors of health," said Kyle Foreman, director of data science at the University of Toronto. Institute for Metrics and Health Assessment (IHME) and lead author of the study.
"The future of health in the world is not predefined and there is a wide range of plausible trajectories," Forman said.
The results are in addition to a study done last month that joining a Mediterranean diet can prolong people's lives.
Spain is one of the many European countries to offer tax-financed health care, its health system ranking seventh among the best in the world by the World Health Organization. the health.
Neighboring Portugal is the country that has made the most progress in the top 20, with an average life expectancy of 3.6 years increasing from 23rd to the fifth. Italy won a seventh place in sixth place.
The study, published Tuesday in the journal Lancet, analyzed data from the 2016 Global Burden of Diseases project to generate forecasts from 2017 to 2040.
IHME researchers have also taken into account the impacts of diseases such as diabetes, HIV / AIDS and cancers, as well as risk factors, including diet and smoking.
Factors causing the most premature deaths were high blood pressure, high body mass index, hyperglycemia, smoking and alcohol, the researchers said.
According to the new study, the average life expectancy of the British will be 83.3 years (an increase of 2.5 years), that of Germans 83.2 years (up to 2.3 years) and that of An average Australian up to the age of 84, an increase of 1.6 year olds in the top ten overall.
Syria is expected to experience the largest increase in the world, adding more than 10 years to its average life span (78.6 years) from 137 to 80 years, assuming its devastating civil war ends.
The top ten
Based on the expected life expectancy for 2040:
Spain (85.8 years old)
Japan (85.7 years)
Singapore (85.4 years)
Switzerland (85.2 years)
Portugal (84.5 years old)
Italy (84.5 years old)
Israel (84.4 years old)
France (84.3 years old)
Luxembourg (84.1 years old)
Australia (84.1 years old)
American decline
The United States will experience the largest decline in ranking of all high-income countries, according to new study forecasts, and they currently have the lowest life expectancy among high-income countries. In the United States, life expectancy has declined over the past two years, according to the National Health Statistics Center's annual reports, the first multi-year decline since 1962 and 1963.
The increase in the number of drug-related deaths would be a factor in the decreasing numbers, with accidental overdoses leading to 63,600 deaths in 2016. In addition, obesity in adults is at its highest rate in the country, according to the National Center for Health. Statistics. According to their research, nearly four in ten adults and 18.5% of American children are obese, while other research conducted in February showed a sharp increase in obesity rates in American children aged 2 to 5 years. .
Inequalities to continue
Lesotho, with an estimated life expectancy of 57.3 years, will collapse below the Central African Republic to become the country with the lowest life expectancy by 2040 among the 195 countries. and territories analyzed, says the study.
And, while the 18 African countries at the bottom of the rankings should see their lifespan increase from 6.4 to 9.5 years, the inequalities between the best performing countries and the worst performers will still be present.
"Inequalities will continue to be important," said Christopher Murray, Director of IHME. "In many countries, too many people will continue to earn relatively low incomes, remain poorly educated and die prematurely. But countries could move faster by helping people cope with major risks, including smoking and poor nutrition. "
The researchers predicted "better" and "worst" scenarios, as well as an overall estimate, with Lesotho's worst-case life expectancy at 45.3 years.
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