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Spaniards will live on average 85.8 years, which will slightly reduce the expected lifespan Japan (85.7), Singapore (85.4) and Switzerland (85.2).
The United States will experience the largest decline in ranking of all high-income countries from 43rd in 2016 to 64th in 2040, with an average life expectancy of 79.8 years.
The United States will be overtaken by China, which gains 29 places in 39th place.
Americans will live an average of 1.1 years longer in 2040 than in 2016, well below the overall average increase of 4.4 years over the same period.
"Whether we find significant progress or stagnation depends on the extent to which health systems are treating the major factors of health," said Kyle Foreman, director of data science at the Institute of Metrology and Research. # 39; health assessment and lead author of the study.
"The future of health in the world is not pre-ordained, and there is a wide range of plausible trajectories," Forman said.
Neighboring Portugal is the country that has made the most progress in the top 20, with an average life expectancy of 3.6 years increasing from 23rd to the fifth. Italy won a seventh place in sixth place.
IHME researchers have also taken into account the impacts of diseases such as diabetes, HIV / AIDS and cancers, as well as risk factors, including diet and smoking.
Factors causing the most premature deaths were high blood pressure, high body mass index, hyperglycemia, smoking and alcohol, the researchers said.
According to the new study, the average life expectancy of the British will be 83.3 years (an increase of 2.5 years), that of Germans 83.2 years (up to 2.3 years) and that of An average Australian up to the age of 84, an increase of 1.6 year olds in the top ten overall.
Syria is expected to experience the largest increase in the world, adding more than 10 years to its average life span (78.6 years) from 137 to 80 years, assuming its devastating civil war ends.
The top ten
Based on the expected life expectancy for 2040:
- Spain (85.8 years old)
- Japan (85.7 years)
- Singapore (85.4 years)
- Switzerland (85.2 years)
- Portugal (84.5 years old)
- Italy (84.5 years old)
- Israel (84.4 years old)
- France (84.3 years old)
- Luxembourg (84.1 years old)
- Australia (84.1 years old)
American decline
Inequalities to continue
Lesotho, with an estimated life expectancy of 57.3 years, will collapse below the Central African Republic to become the country with the lowest life expectancy by 2040 among the 195 countries. and territories analyzed, says the study.
And, while the 18 African countries at the bottom of the rankings should see their lifespan increase from 6.4 to 9.5 years, the inequalities between the best performing countries and the worst performers will still be present.
"Inequalities will continue to be important," said Christopher Murray, Director of IHME. "In many countries, too many people will continue to earn relatively low incomes, remain poorly educated and die prematurely, but countries could move faster by helping people cope with the main risks, including smoking and poor health. food."
The researchers predicted "better" and "worse" scenarios as well as an overall estimate, with Lesotho's worst life expectancy being set at 45.3 years.
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